Ignorant College Bowl Picks: Saturday's Games

I finished the season 79-81-1, which isn't a horrible record. I'm somewhat proud of it. Here are my picks for Saturday's bowl games...

Gildan New Mexico Bowl - Albuqueruqe, NM
Nevada +9.5 vs. Arizona
I gotta go with the Wolfpack in this one. Don't know why. But here's a picture of an Arizona girl.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise, ID
Utah State -10.5 vs. Toledo
USU went 10-2 and the game will be played in the Rocky Mountains. Advantage Aggies.

Change for the BCS?

There may be change coming to college football's postseason. At the very least, it will be discussed by the 11 Division I-A conference heads along with Notre Dame's AD. There will be mafia style meetings like when the heads of crime families from across the country meet. There will be discussions on what's best for college football's future. There will be stubbornness, there might be compromise, and the Big East might get whacked.

The SEC wants a playoff. Ironic considering how much they've thrived in current BCS format.

The ACC also wants a playoff.

The Big Ten doesn't. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney is adamant that there be no playoff. He also believes that the world is flat and that the earth is the center of the Universe.

The Pac-12 is a wild card, and could be the best chance for compromise. They could be open to a playoff. So long as the Pac-12/Big Ten/Rose Bowl threesome remains intact. At least they're willing to talk.

The Big XII might want a playoff after seeing Oklahoma State lose 1 game and go to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Big East just wants to survive.

As a demonstration of how messy this discussion is, nobody involved even uses the word "playoff" because it's too inflammatory. "Plus-one" is the term to describe a 4 team playoff. Which makes no sense because there'd be 2 rounds, 3 games, and 4 teams.

Call me cynical, but I don't think there will be any major change from these meetings. Maybe the BCS will only sanction the national title game, instead of the title game and 4 BCS bowls. Maybe the notion of automatic qualification will go out the window, which might stop the musical chairs we've seen in college football.

But there are too many uncompromising people, too many various deal-breaking demands for everyone to be satisfied. And without consensus, there will be no big changes.

Until Jim Delaney dies or gets fired, there won't be any significantly positive change to college football's postseason.

Or maybe, if the BCS does separate itself from the bowls, it might grow as an independent entity. It might eventually build its own playoff system. Just like the NIT. Only with no NCAA tournament to compete with. Think of how popular the NIT would be if it were the only postseason tournament and featured all the best teams. ESPN would pay billions to broadcast a football version of that. And where the TV money goes, the teams will play.

That might make the Orange Bowl less profitable, but I really don't care.

The Least Entertaining Postseason in Sports

I could go on and on about how sketchy and stupid college football's bowl system is. I could point out what's been pointed out a billion times and say "we need a playoff." And I think I might start writing a book on the tyranny of the bowls and how they unjustly control college football's postseason. In this little article though, I'm just going to point out a simple fact:

College football's postseason is the least entertaining of all postseasons in major sports.

The Stanley Cup playoffs are amazing. I'm not much of a basketball fan but the NBA playoffs usually draw me in for a weeks. March Madness might be my favorite sporting event of the year. MLB playoff games are tense and pressure filled. And the NFL playoffs are thrilling.

There's something about earning the right to extend a season. There's something special about hockey in June, baseball in October, and football in February. And there's something even more special about teams fighting tooth and nail for that right to play one more game.

Compare that to bowl games. Which can sometimes be entertaining to watch. But then the victors' season is over. Just as over as the team they beat. There's nothing more to win than a trophy and a t-shirt. There's no survival, no advancement to next week's round.

Imagine if last night's Broncos/Steelers game were a bowl game. It would have still been fun to watch. But without anything more than a trophy awarded to the winner, it's not nearly as exciting as a playoff win. We'd forget all about it in a few weeks as the #1 Packers played the #2 Patriots for the national title. While the Saints played in the Rose Bowl and the Broncos played in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

We've seen some entertaining bowl games. And tonight's might also be fun to watch. But how much more fun would it be to see the winner of tonight's game play Oklahoma State? How about Stanford playing Boise State? How much more enjoyable would the previous bowls been if the winner won the right to survive for another week?

College football might have the most exciting regular season of all sports. But it's postseason is the least entertaining.

Bowl Previews: This Weekend's Bowls*

Now we get some more crappy bowls before the big one on Monday.

Saturday - 1:00 PM - ESPN
BBVA Compass Bowl - Birmingham, AL
SMU Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-4)
I think the Big East sucks. Despite seeing WVU destroy Clemson. I'm being biased and picking SMU to win.

SMU +4

Sunday - 9:00 PM - ESPN
Godaddy.com Bowl - Mobile, AL
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1.5) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Arkansas State won the Sun Belt and won their last 9 games. NIU won the MAC and 8 straight. I know nothing about these teams, but I love the name Red Wolves, so...

Arkansas State -1.5

Bowl Previews: This Week's Bowls*

We're finally in the home stretch of Bowl Season. The last week before the national championship, when we curse the BCS, the bowls, and the Big Ten for preventing us from enjoying a playoff system, then "punish" the bowls by watching them, allowing them to generate ridiculous revenue from TV ratings.

Tonight - 8:30 PM - ESPN
Allstate Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
#13 Michigan Wolverines (-3) vs. #11 Virginia Tech Hokies
This game sums up why the BCS is a lousy, rigged, slimy system. Teams like Kansas State and Boise State were ranked higher in the BCS. But Michigan and Va-Tech are established powerhouses with big fanbases that will fill hotel rooms, buy tickets and merchandise, and also watch in huge numbers on TV.

Both these teams have excellent defenses. Then again, neither has faced overly impressive opposition. It might just be wishful thinking, because I hate Michigan, but I think Tech wins this game.

VT +3

Wednesday - 8:30 PM - ESPN
Discover Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#23 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. #15 Clemson Tigers (-3)
WVU is the best the Big East could muster. More BCS BS as the Big East gets an automatic BCS bid (and an automatic check) no matter how much their conference stinks.

Uncharacteristically, WVU struggled to run the ball, and had a bad defense. Clemson was a pleasant surprise for the ACC. They have some head-shaking losses on their schedule, but also have some impressive wins. They beat Virginia Tech twice. I really can't pick against them. I doubted this Tigers team all year long but they've made me a believer.

Clemson -3

Friday - 8:00 PM - Fox
AT&T Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
#8 Kansas State Wildcats vs. #6 Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)
And yet another example of BCS shenanigans. The Cotton Bowl is one of the most historic and was once one of the most important bowl games in college football. But somehow a much younger bowl game in Arizona was included in the BCS. The Cotton Bowl gets a small measure of revenge as it's now played in Jerry Jones' mega-stadium, and this year they have one of the most attractive matchups.

K-State lost to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Their biggest win was over Baylor. Arkansas lost to Bama and LSU. Their biggest win was over South Carolina. I think Arkansas is slightly overhyped, and K-State can win this one in Big XII territory. Or at least keep it close.

Wildcats +8.5

Bowl Previews: Saturday's Bowls*

All this games will be played on Saturday. Five games in total.

Saturday - 12:00 PM - ESPN
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas - Houston, TX
Texas A&M Aggies (-10) vs. Northwestern Wildcats
I thought A&M had a legitimate chance to win the Big XII. So keep that in mind while reading my college football picks. A&M lost to some good teams. Northwestern lost to some bad teams along with good teams. A&M took care of business when playing equal/inferior opponents, and the game is less than 100 miles from College Station.

Aggies -10

Saturday - 2:00 PM - CBS
Hyundai Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3) vs. Utah Utes
Tech rushes the ball well over 300 yards a game. They do not pass it. Utah struggles to run and pass. However, their defense is pretty stalwart. They allowed fewer than 20 points per game. I think they'll stop Tech's ground attack.

Utah +3

Saturday - 3:30 PM - ABC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-2)
Cincy won 9 games. Vanderbilt won 3. Vanderbilt is in the SEC, but they're in the East. Vandy's wins came against Army, UConn, Elon, Wake Forest, Kentucky, and Ole Miss. I'm not impressed. I'll take Cincinnati.

Bearcats +2

Saturday - 3:30 PM - ESPN
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - San Francisco, CA
Illinois Fighting Illini (-3) vs. UCLA Bruins
Illinois won their first 6, lost their last 6. UCLA spread their losses around. In fact, their loss in the Pac-12 title game was the first time they'd lost back-to-back games all season. This game will be an horrific abomination. And I think UCLA will emerge victorious.

UCLA +3

Saturday - 7:30 PM - ESPN
Chick-fil-A Bowl - Atlanta, GA
Virginia Cavaliers vs. #25 Auburn Tigers (-3)
I think Auburn is a bit overrated, just because they're in the SEC West. Virginia had a solid season, and might be satisfied just to make this bowl game against Auburn. I have a gut feeling that they'll win.

Virginia +3

Bowl Previews: Tomorrow's Bowls*

All four of these bowls will be played on Friday. It's a very packed day of football.

Friday - 12:00 PM - ESPN
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Dallas, TX
BYU Cougars vs. Tulsa Hurricanes (-1)
BYU won 9 games as an independent. They lost to Texas, TCU, and Utah, so that's not too shabby. Tulsa's losses are also nothing to be ashamed of (Oklahoma, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Houston). The Hurricanes have a good offense, and I think they'll be able to score against BYU.

Tulsa -1

Friday - 3:20 PM - ESPN
New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Bronx, NY
Rutgers scarlet Knights (-1.5) vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Rutgers will essentially be the home team. ISU only won 2 road games. Their big win came against Oklahoma State, but other than that, they were pretty bad. They struggle to score points, they allow nearly 30 per game. Rutgers has the 12th best scoring defense in the country, and it'll be a surprise if Iowa State puts up any points.

Rutgers -1.5

Friday - 6:40 PM - ESPN
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Long title, long school names. To make a long story short, both these teams went 6-6. But Mississippi State's schedule might have been a little tougher out in the SEC West. MSU was 4-0 outside of conference play. Wake Forest was 1-3, and that 1 was against Gardner-Webb.

Mississippi State -6.5

Friday - 10:00 PM - ESPN
Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #14 Oklahoma Sooners (-14)
OU can't be happy to be playing in this part of Arizona. The question is, will they be motivated to prove something, or depressed and glum. Iowa is a tough team to figure out. They lost to Iowa State, but also beat Michigan. I think they'll at least make a game of it against a bruised and battered OU team.

Iowa +14

Bowl Previews: This Week's Bowls*

We've got quite a few bowl games this week. Two today, two tomorrow, two Thursday, Then even more as New Year's approaches. My record for picking these games hasn't been bad. 3-5. Better than I was doing with picks earlier in the year.

Today - 4:30 PM - ESPN
Little Caesars Bowl - Detroit, MI
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-3)
WMU has a good offense, but a poor defense. They can throw the ball. Purdue is in the middle of the pack defensively and offensively. The polite word is "balanced," the appropriate word is "mediocre." Kalamazoo is only 2 and a half hours from Detroit. I think WMU has the edge in this game.

WMU +3

Tonight - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Belk Bowl - Charlotte, NC
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack (PK)
UL lost to Florida Int'l, and Marshall. NC State lost to BC. Neither of these teams impresses me. NC State will have the crowd behind them. Louisville will struggle to put up points. I'll take a 4-4 ACC team over a 5-2 Big East team.

NC State (pick 'em)

Wednesday - 4:30 PM - ESPN
Military Bowl, presented by Northrup Grumman - Washington, DC
Toledo Rockets (-3) vs. Air Force Falcons
Toledo lost 4 games. To Boise State, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Northern Illinois. That's not awful for a MAC team. That loss to NIU was 63-60, which sums up Toledo's greatest strength (their offense) and biggest weakness (defense). Air Force doesn't have a defense that's anything special. They can run the ball (320.3 yards per game), so either they'll keep the ball away from Toledo's explosive offense, or they'll fall behind and need to chew up clock to catch up. Air Force isn't equipped to take full advantage of Toledo's porous defense.

Toledo -3.

Wednesday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
California Golden Bears vs. #24 Texas Longhorns (-3)
Cals 7-5 record was inflated by wins against some bad teams. Texas is in a similar boat, only not as bad. The Longhorns have more talent in this battle of mediocrity. They also crushed UCLA, whereas Cal lost to the Bruins.

Texas -3

Thursday - 5:30 PM - ESPN
Champ Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL
Florida State Seminoles (-3) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Two powerhouse programs that were expected to do well in 2011 but fell very short. I simply do not believe in Notre Dame. Sure, they won 8 games, they beat Michigan State, but their schedule is packed with bad teams. BC, Maryland, Purdue. FSU, on paper, is a much better team. And they'll be the better team on the field as well.

FSU -3

Thursday - 9:00 PM - ESPN
Washington Huskies vs. Baylor Bears (-9.5)
Washington lost to pretty much every good team in the Pac-12. They allow 33.3 points per game, which does not bode well for a matchup against RG3 and the Bears of Baylor. This game should see plenty of points. But Baylor will have more of them. Much more of them.

Baylor -9.5

Bowl Previews: This Weekend's Bowls*

We've got a bowl game on Christmas Eve, then another on Boxing Day (the 26th). It'll be tough to catch these games with a full NFL slate and holiday stuff mixed in. But here are my picks anyway:

Saturday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HA
Nevada Wolfpack vs. #21 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-8)
It's hard not to pick Southern Miss. They won 11 games, they beat Houston, their two losses were close and on the road, 14th ranked offense, 29th defense. Meanwhile, Nevada struggled to beat the relatively quality teams on their schedule. I have to pick the Golden Eagles.

Southern Miss -8

Monday - 5:00 PM - ESPN
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA
Missouri Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Both these programs had higher expectations than this. Mizzou finished 5th in the Big XII, UNC was tied for 8th in the ACC. Although the Big XII was a better conference, Missouri couldn't beat any of the decent or good teams. This should be a close game, and I think Carolina will pull it out, or at least prevent Missouri from covering the 5 point spread.

North Carolina +5.

More picks next week as the quantity and quality of bowl games increases. Merry Christmas!

Bowl Previews: This Week's Bowls*

My picks were 2-1 on Saturday, and although I'm tempted to quit while I'm ahead, I've got more picks. These are some weekday bowls starting tonight, and there are actually some very good teams involved. TCU plays tomorrow night, and Boise State plays Thursday night. That's the big dropoff from BCS Bowls for these conferences. Try to convince me that the BCS doesn't violate some sort of anti-trust laws. Anyway, here are the picks (all times are Eastern):

Tonight - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - St. Petersburg, FL
Florida International Golden Panthers (-3.5) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
They might need the biggest marquee in history to fit all those words onto one sign. FIU is one of the few teams headed north to their bowl game. The Golden Panthers were 8-4, and even beat Louisville. Meanwhile, Marshall barely was bowl eligible. The Herd also beat Louisville. Man, Louisville sucks. Marshall will be happy to make the trip and lose with little fight.

FIU -3.5

Wednesday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA
#18 TCU Horned Frogs (-9.5) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Speaking of lengthy titles... TCU won 10 games, and only lost to Baylor (50-48) and SMU (in OT). 9th best offense in the country, respectable 30th in defense. Meanwhile, LaTech has mounted a 7 game win streak after starting 1-4. Maybe ESPN should be drooling all over their quarterback just like they did with Tebow. The Bulldogs will put up a fight, but TCU is legitimately good.

TCU -9.5

Thursday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Maaco Bowl - Las Vegas, NV
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. #7 Boise State Broncos (-14)
Can you understand why BSU wanted to join the Big East so badly? They go 11-1, finish 2nd in their conference to TCU, and they win up playing before Christmas. ASU can score, and their passing offense is 11th best in the country. They have a good QB and a good RB. This game will be interesting until halftime when BSU pulls away.

Boise State -14

We'll have more bowl previews later this week.

Bowl Preview: Saturday's Bowls*

It's that time of year again. Bowl season. And for the next 24 days we'll have previews and picks for every single bowl game. And I'd seriously suggest not betting based on my picks, because my record in picking college games this season was 24-41-1 before I got lazy/embarrassed and stopped picking games.

All these games will be played tomorrow. And they're all on ESPN. All times are Eastern.

2:00 PM
Gildan New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM
Temple Owls (-7) vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Both teams went 8-4 this season. And Wyoming actually scored exactly as many points (324) as they allowed. And while the Cowboys played in the Mountain West, which is a bit tougher than Temple's MAC, I'm going to pick the Owls because of their defense. They only allowed 13.8 points per game.

So Temple -7.

5:30 PM
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise, ID
Ohio Bobcats vs. Utah State Aggies (-1.5)
An interesting matchup between a balanced Ohio team, and a run-heavy, bad defense Utah State team. The Aggies can score points in bunches, they can also give them up in bunches. I'm going to pick the more solid Ohio team.

Ohio +1.5

9:00 PM
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA
San Diego State Aztecs (-4.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
ULL are playing close to home (136 miles), but that's as far as their advantages go. SDSU lost 4 games, but they were to Michigan, TCU, Boise State, and Wyoming. So a BCS team, two that could have been in the BCS, and Wyoming. The Cajuns allow nearly 30 points per game and struggled to rush the ball.

SD State -4.5

Picking them also means I can post that picture. Wow.

We'll have more bowl picks on Tuesday.