College Football Playoff needs to add a 5th team, and a play-in game

Alabama vs. Ohio State is more exciting as a football game than an argument. I'd much rather watch these two teams determine the 4th playoff spot on the field, than watch sports pundits argue about it.

It's clear that the College Football Playoffs are a vast improvement over the BCS, but a modest increase in the playoff's size could yield a big increase in entertainment and drama, while still preserving the importance of the regular season.

I've always wanted a 6-team college playoff, with the top 2 receiving byes, and teams seeded 3 through 6 having to play an extra round. But now I'm thinking that 5 teams would be even better, with just one play-in game. Having just one play-in game is somehow more captivating. It's also not a 7 hour time commitment to my TV.

Forcing the a team to win an extra game for a playoff spot makes sense as the 4th and 5th teams typically have some blemishes on their record they need to atone for. They perhaps didn't win their conference, or have 2 losses, or are a non-power conference team like UCF. They could prove their worthiness by winning the play-in game, which is much more convincing than a panel or algorithm deciding they deserve a chance to win it all.

And a 5 team playoff maintains the importance, and subsequent drama of the regular season. It might even add a little more urgency and excitement, as title contending teams strive to ensure a spot in the top 3 to avoid the extra game, and more teams would have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs.

The play-in game could be played a week after the conference championships, and be hosted by the #4 seed to ensure good ticket sales and an intense college football atmosphere. It would also give us the treat of seeing powerful programs from different parts of the country forced to play each other outside of neutral locations. Or it could pit conference rivals against each other in a game with a national title shot on the line.

So this is what we'd get with a play-in game:

• The fourth playoff team forced to earn their spot 
• The fourth playoff team legitimately proving their worthiness
• More importance for top teams to finish in the top 3 
• More teams with a shot at making the playoffs
• An extra 60 minutes of exciting football between top teams 

Just ask yourself, would you rather watch talking head sports pundits argue about Bama and Ohio State, or watch the Tide and Buckeyes figure it out for themselves in front of 100,000 fans in Columbus or Tuscaloosa? Which do you think would get better ratings, the game or the selection show?

Alabama knows how to make a football schedule

Alabama opened their 2017 season with a convincing win over Florida State Saturday, giving the Tide an even firmer grasp of the #1 spot in the country.

But even if Bama had lost, because the game is so early in the season, they still would have been able to climb back up the rankings into a playoff spot. That's what's so ingenious about scheduling a marquee game against an elite opponent so early. It's the best time of the year to lose because you have almost 3 months to move back up as other top teams around the country lose games later in the year.

You're also guaranteeing yourself the spotlight in a Week 1 that is typically saturated with boring cupcake games. Penn State vs. Akron, Stanford vs. Rice, Howard vs. UNLV... well not that one. Anyway, with the spotlight on you, if you win, most of the college football world will see it and talk about it all week, enhancing your status as a top team.

The key to playing these top-tier non-conference opponents is a neutral location. This keeps Bama from going into a tough place to play (there's plenty of times they do that already in the SEC), and also gives their players the experience of playing big games away from home. So no home-field advantage, but no advantage for the opponent either.

Many teams schedule easy opponents in Week 1 partly because it can be a quasi-preseason game. Coaches want their players to get into a groove, especially their new starters. However the reality is, there is no disadvantage to playing a tough opponent in Week 1. The opposing players are just as rusty, their freshman just as inexperienced. It's an even playing field.

So instead, Alabama elects to play its easiest opponents in November, the Saturday before their Iron Bowl rivalry game against Auburn. Bama will host Mercer this year in the week before playing Auburn. Last year it was the Chattanooga Mocs. In 2015 it was Charleston Southern.

These games are like dress rehearsals for Alabama. The opponents are like sparring partners for the Tide to practice on, without any real threat of being hurt. The players get a bit of a break but also maintain their rhythm the week before going into what is often the biggest game of the year.

Bama doesn't leave Tuscaloosa unless they have to. They do not play non-conference road games. FSU was in Atlanta, the others will be at home (7 of Bama's 12 games this year are at home, 4 on the road, 1 in Atlanta). Alabama hasn't played a true non-conference road game since 2011 at Penn State.

None of this is a criticism of Alabama or Nick Saban. This is in praise and admiration. I'm also a bit jealous because I wish Bill Belichick and the Patriots could create their own schedule the way college programs are able to.

I also think it's weird that you don't see other teams adopting some of these approaches to scheduling (although many teams do not play non-conference road games). Why schedule a cupcake in Week 1 when you can add them into the schedule as a semi-scrimmage before a big game? Why avoid quality opponents when you can perhaps meet at a neutral location early in the season and either win to add to your resume, or lose and have 11 more games to recover.

BCS System Pisses Me Off One Last Time

Those are Ohio State players celebrating Auburn's last-second 109 yard field goal return touchdown against Alabama. The video was recorded and posted on Instagram by OSU receiver Frank Epitropoulos. As OSU's players rode on a bus somewhere in lower Michigan, 800 miles to the south in Auburn, Alabama, insane events unfolded that knocked Bama out of the BCS title game, and might have put Ohio State in.

And that's what pisses me off. Ohio State didn't knock out Alabama, Auburn did. Ohio State essentially advanced to the title game at the expense of Alabama, without ever playing Alabama. I'm doubly pissed off because Ohio State would have never had a chance to knock off Bama themselves.

I'm not suggesting that Ohio State doesn't deserve a title shot. I'm not suggesting that Alabama does deserve one. OSU took care of business, Bama didn't. And in this system, Ohio State deserves a title shot more than Alabama.

But how Ohio State passed Alabama is what pisses me off. Auburn did the dirty work for Ohio State. To be fair, Ohio State would have never been given a chance to knock off Alabama. Which is also a flaw of this horrid BCS system. OSU could have gone undefeated and not been given a title shot. Just like NIU and Fresno State. How ludicrous is that? An undefeated Big Ten champion on the outside looking in? It might have happened if not for a missed FG return.

I'm not bitching about the BCS's unfairness or inequalities. I'm complaining about the entertainment the BCS robs from the college football fan. We don't get to see OSU and Bama decide who is best on the field. Or OSU and Auburn for that matter. Instead of letting the gladiators fight it out in the arena head-to-head, they fight against their own local neighbors. Then someone somewhere somehow decides which 2 are the best and they fight to be crowned champion.

The BCS deprives us of big games between contenders to decide who is worthy of a shot at the Championship. The BCS deprives us of the thrill of elimination football. We get to enjoy it in the pros, and in all other college sports. But not big time football. And I hate the BCS for that. Good riddance.

And to the Ohio State players celebrating, you were a 2-point conversion away from being knocked out by Michigan. And you still must play Michigan State. I hope you lose and make things even more confusing.

And there's a chance Auburn could get in, but it won't be because they beat Ohio State or Florida State. Michigan State and Duke have more control over Auburn's national title hopes than Auburn does.

And how must Stanford and Oregon feel? Had they beaten USC and Arizona, respectively, then they'd be near the front of the line if OSU or Florida State lose their conference title games.

And for the record, I don't feel an ounce of pity for Alabama's A.J. McCarron. Mostly because of this...

Going home to that must be, in a word, comforting.

Johnny Manziel Not an NFL Quarterback

Johnny Manziel dazzles on the field with brilliant performances, like his 5 touchdown, 562 total yard game against Alabama. He's probably the most exciting player in college football, and he deserved the Heisman he won last year as the best player. However, I have yet to see anything that makes me think he'll have any measure of success in the NFL.

He has a strong arm. Great. There have been countless strong armed QBs who have failed miserably in the NFL. Manziel possesses the physical talents of an NFL QB. And he can even run, which is a bonus. Although he's also short (listed at 6' 1" but I'm not so sure about that). So that scram-bility is countered by the inability to see the field when surrounded by the behemoths of the NFL.

The height issue is minor, so forget about that. After all, Michael Vick is 6' and he's done okay in the NFL.

When I see Manziel make plays against college players, like he did against 'Bama this past weekend, I see a scrambler who takes advantage of defenses that don't contain the edge. Those reverse-field lanes won't be open for Manziel in the NFL. Bigger, faster, smarter defensive players will keep him much more contained than college defenses.

I see Manziel throwing a jump ball to 6' 5" Mike Evans, who is in single coverage against a small CB who doesn't have the awareness to turn around and play the ball. Corners who are that vulnerable are rarities in the NFL. Even the small ones know when to turn and jump to disrupt the play.

Then there's his decision-making. He seems more interested in making the big flashy play and not the smart play. Here's a highlight-reel throw that only he could make:

That's a great play, but a horrible decision. In a 14-14 game you blindly heave a ball downfield? You risk a turnover (and a return) just for a first down?

It worked, but I wasn't impressed. It reminded me of Brett Favre at his most moronic. And then seeing how impressed Manziel was with himself at making a lucky play, that revealed a great deal about Manziel's personality. What showed even more of that personality was his end zone interception 4 plays later, when he tried to make the difficult-but-amazing play instead of the easy play that was open.

Not only is Manziel willing to take stupid risks, he actively seeks them. Because that's how he gratifies himself. He builds his ego by taking risks and making big, flashy plays. He's cocky, not confident. Confidence withstands adversity, cockiness constantly seeks justification.

His off-field decision making is also questionable. I don't care about the partying or the sex or the drinking. If I were the QB at A&M, I'd be enjoying my share of T&A as well. But Manziel publicizes it. He revels in it. He broadcasts what he does. And that's not a desirable trait.

What motivates him to be so public about his private life?

Then there's his exit to the Manning Passing Academy. I don't care about his going out in New Orleans and drinking. Again, it's his life, live it up. But if you commit to something, then do it. He committed to an off-season academy and didn't follow through. And if you want to go out and party, then get away with it. Don't put yourself in a position to get caught. He was an idiot for thinking he'd get away with it.

As much as other athletes like Gronkowski party, they don't let it impact their commitments. Manziel is more like a Tyler Seguin type. He can't put the partying on hold, even for a few days. It's part of the massive ego he's built. And when criticized or questioned, he becomes spiky and defensive of his lifestyle.

For now, his on-field performances make his off-field activities a moot point. But at some point he will want to join the NFL. He will have to take that leap that all college players take. He'll go from being the big fish in the small pond to the minnow in the ocean.

How will he adjust? What will challenge him to make himself better? Guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers all found a challenge that they used as motivation. Peyton was challenged by his family, Brady by his 6th round selection, Rodgers by being stuck behind Favre.

The QBs that fail in the NFL are the ones that don't face challenges. They cruise on talent and standard levels of effort. Then they get to the League, and they get baffled by the challenge. They have no idea how to approach it. Ryan Leaf, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, etc.

Johnny Manziel lives in a world in which he is the center, he is the best, and everything he does is right. That works for him at A&M. And it works for the Aggies. However, that kind of attitude doesn't work for a rookie QB in the NFL.

I'd prefer AJ McCarron, who is more confident than cocky. Who looks for the smart play not the big play. Who has been challenged by Nick Saban to be the best he can be for the best team in the country. I'd give Manziel another Heisman over McCarron, I'd draft McCarron over Manziel.

But if the NFL doesn't pan out for Manziel, maybe he and Tim Tebow could star in an Odd Couple reality show. Maybe one week Tebow could bring Manziel to church on Sunday morning and the next week Manziel could bring Tebow to a club until 4 AM and have a drunken orgy with a group of Swedish exchange students. We can call the show Holy and Horny: The Heisman Homies.

Johnny Manziel Gets Meaningless Suspension

Reason #1,384 that I'm getting sick of big time college football. The NCAA decides to discipline Johnny Manziel by suspending him for the first half of Texas A&M's game against Rice. RICE! A&M is going to slaughter Rice, with or without Manziel. And Manziel still gets to play a half.

I don't know whether Manziel should have been punished or not. The NCAA has cleared him of the paid autograph charges. But if you're going to punish a player/program/school, make it a real punishment. Something that will have impact. Something that will have an effect on the player/program/school. Manziel probably would have been benched for most of this game anyway. What difference does it make if he sits the first half or the second?

The punishment was agreed upon by the NCAA and A&M. Which I don't get. Because what did Manziel do wrong if he didn't get paid to sign autographs? If he did nothing wrong, let him play. If he did something wrong, give him a real punishment.

What's the NCAA trying to do with this punishment? It won't deter Manziel or any other player from doing anything wrong. It doesn't hurt A&M for losing control of a player. I think the NCAA is just trying to make itself appear like it has some power. Which it doesn't. The NCAA is a weak, withered, impotent force that wields no real power over schools, except to punish them when some other group or organization uncovers rampant violations and wrongdoing.

Manziel is good for business. He's good for A&M, he's good for ESPN's and CBS's TV ratings, he's good for the SEC, he's good for the NCAA. This token "no-one is above the law" suspension is an effort to prove that even the Johnny Manziels of the college football world are subject to NCAA and school rules. But they're not. The existence of this suspension actually proves how out of control the NCAA is. Otherwise they wouldn't try so hard to appear to be in control.

Change for the BCS?

There may be change coming to college football's postseason. At the very least, it will be discussed by the 11 Division I-A conference heads along with Notre Dame's AD. There will be mafia style meetings like when the heads of crime families from across the country meet. There will be discussions on what's best for college football's future. There will be stubbornness, there might be compromise, and the Big East might get whacked.

The SEC wants a playoff. Ironic considering how much they've thrived in current BCS format.

The ACC also wants a playoff.

The Big Ten doesn't. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney is adamant that there be no playoff. He also believes that the world is flat and that the earth is the center of the Universe.

The Pac-12 is a wild card, and could be the best chance for compromise. They could be open to a playoff. So long as the Pac-12/Big Ten/Rose Bowl threesome remains intact. At least they're willing to talk.

The Big XII might want a playoff after seeing Oklahoma State lose 1 game and go to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Big East just wants to survive.

As a demonstration of how messy this discussion is, nobody involved even uses the word "playoff" because it's too inflammatory. "Plus-one" is the term to describe a 4 team playoff. Which makes no sense because there'd be 2 rounds, 3 games, and 4 teams.

Call me cynical, but I don't think there will be any major change from these meetings. Maybe the BCS will only sanction the national title game, instead of the title game and 4 BCS bowls. Maybe the notion of automatic qualification will go out the window, which might stop the musical chairs we've seen in college football.

But there are too many uncompromising people, too many various deal-breaking demands for everyone to be satisfied. And without consensus, there will be no big changes.

Until Jim Delaney dies or gets fired, there won't be any significantly positive change to college football's postseason.

Or maybe, if the BCS does separate itself from the bowls, it might grow as an independent entity. It might eventually build its own playoff system. Just like the NIT. Only with no NCAA tournament to compete with. Think of how popular the NIT would be if it were the only postseason tournament and featured all the best teams. ESPN would pay billions to broadcast a football version of that. And where the TV money goes, the teams will play.

That might make the Orange Bowl less profitable, but I really don't care.

Missouri to SEC*

It's official, The Missouri Tigers will be joining the SEC, and will become part of the East Division. Even though there will only be two SEC teams west of Columbia, MO (Texas A&M and Arkansas). The SEC now has 14 teams, and we'll all see how well that works before leagues move toward 16 teams.

My big question is, when will conferences start dropping teams? That, from a legal perspective, is so much more difficult to do. But does Vanderbilt belong in the SEC? Does Iowa State deserve to be in the Big XII?

The musical chairs continue. The Big XII can afford to lose Missouri because they've added TCU and West Virginia. They'll still have ten teams, and could add the likes of Louisville. Or why not Houston?

So now the SEC's territory spreads from Gainesville, FL to College Station, TX. From Baton Rouge, LA to Columbia, MO. From Lexington, KY to Columbia, SC. And now in the SEC there are now three teams named "Tigers," two named "Bulldogs," and two playing in towns called Columbia.

Who's next for the SEC? If they decide to expand to 16, why not target Texas and Oklahoma? Or maybe Miami and Virginia Tech. In all the inter-conference maneuverings, the SEC has been the most desired conference to be in. Nobody has left the SEC, and their options for expansion are the most extensive.

College Football Musical Chairs

The musical chairs of college football continue as Pitt and Syracuse will be joining the ACC. The move not only improves the football of the conference, it also dramatically improves the quality of the basketball. Syracuse, Duke, and UNC will all be directly competing against each other. The move also widens the ACC's footprint in the Northeast.

The ACC could stay at 14 teams, or it could easily expand to 16. UConn and Rutgers are very willing to join. Notre Dame has been rumored to be a target, and would obviously bring huge amounts of revenue and exposure to the conference. As a BC fan, I'd love if UConn and Notre Dame were to join Boston College in the ACC.

But Notre Dame's ample revenue streams are precisely why they won't join the ACC. They don't want to split their football money with anyone.

The ACC adding teams makes sense for several reasons. Obviously, adding quality football and basketball programs increases shared revenue for everyone. Also, the SEC is lurking, like a shark in deep waters and the ACC needs to protect itself.

Nobody knows how hungry the SEC will be to add teams. But if they do have an appetite, ACC programs like Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech might be on the menu. The ACC is actively defending itself in case that happens.

The Pac-12 has announced that it won't expand... today at least. They're happy with a 12 team conference and they'll all be making plenty of money.

This means that most of the Big XII is safe... today at least. Texas A&M will shuffle over to the SEC, and will likely do so uncontested now that the Big XII as a conference can still survive with 9 members. They may also add BYU or even West Virginia. The SEC has denied that it has already added Missouri.

The Big East is on life support. This isn't the first time. When BC, Miami, and Virginia Tech left, many thought that the Big East would die. So I don't want to start writing its obituary, but things seem worse this time around.

The Big East will be down to 7 teams with the departure of Pitt and Cuse (and the addition of TCU). If UConn and Rutgers defect to the ACC and West Virginia to the Big XII, the conference will either have to disband, or add low quality teams to survive. There simply aren't that many good non-BCS programs out there to add, though. Boise State, obviously. But who else? Houston? Central Florida?

I think the ACC will become the first 16 team "super-conference." They'll be an experiment for the other conferences to watch. If it works, then the SEC and others will follow.

We might end up with 4 BCS conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-16), each with 16 teams, 4 divisions, and 2 rounds of playoffs. Then maybe the 4 conference champs, plus 2 wild cards could be in a National Championship playoff. That'd be fine with me.

Baylor Trying to Save the Big XII

The SEC voted to invite Texas A&M to join their ranks. But before the Home of the 12th Man can be the SEC's 13th member, they're going to have to go through Baylor. One contingency of the SEC's invitation is that there be no legal challenges or roadblocks stopping A&M or any team the SEC decides to invite. Baylor, however, has decided to mount a legal challenge.

It makes sense for Texas A&M to join the SEC, especially with the threat of Oklahoma and Texas joining the Pac-12. It makes sense for the SEC to invite A&M, who has quality programs in multiple sports, and would also help open the state of Texas to SEC recruiters.

Baylor's decision to try to stop this also makes sense. The Big XII is about to be ripped apart, and Baylor will likely be one of the leftovers remaining. They'll likely be invited to the Mountain West, which is respectable, but it's not the BCS. The money that bowl games and TV contracts give to BCS conferences is ridiculous, and that money gets divided evenly by all members of the conference.

To be blunt, Baylor's been getting paid big money thanks to the likes of Texas and Oklahoma. I know they want to keep that money coming, but the reality is that TV dollars now dictate conference alignment, not geography and tradition.

College Football Preview: SEC*

The SEC West is once again the most formidable division in all of college football. And what makes the SEC so strong is that almost every team is at least solid. Put Kentucky in the Big East and they'd contend for the title. Predicting the SEC winner is about the same as prediction one of the two teams in the National Championship Game...

1. Arkansas Razorbacks

The Hogs are strong at WR and RB, but Ryan Mallett is simply irreplaceable. But while the offense will take a step back due to this loss, the defense will take a huge step forward thanks to a flock of talented veterans.

Key Games:
9/24 @ Alabama
10/1 vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX)
11/5 vs. South Carolina
11/19 vs. Mississippi State (in Little Rock, AR)
11/25 @ LSU

Prediction: 12-1, SEC West winner, SEC Champion, National Championship contender

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Bama will reload in the backfield with RB Trent Richardson, who ran for 700 yards last year. However, the QB position is still up in the air. A strong defensive line needs to emerge, as well. The defense was the strength of this team last year, and they still have excellent LBs and amazing DBs. Their schedule is as forgiving as it can get in the SEC West. They'll be great, just not good enough to beat Arkansas in September. It's far too early in the year for the offense to take shape and the defensive line to gel.

Key Games:
9/29 vs. Arkansas
11/5 vs. LSU
11/12 @ Mississippi State

Prediction: 10-2, 2nd in SEC West, BCS berth

3. South Carolina Gamecocks

SC brings back talent like RB Marcus Lattimore, who ran for 1,197 yards and 17 TDs as a freshman. There's also WR Alshon Jeffery, who had 1,517 receiving yards and 9 TDs as a sophomore. If the Cocks get consistent QB play, they'll be good to go on offense. The defense also needs consistency. They're in the "weaker" SEC East, and I think they'll be good enough to repeat as divisional winners.

Key Games
9/10 @ Georgia
10/15 @ Mississippi State
11/5 @ Arkansas

Prediction: 10-3, SEC East winner, SEC title game loser

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia is slightly overrated, as usual. But they do have an excellent young QB in Aaron Murray, who's entering his sophomore season after 3,000+ yards and 24 TDs as a freshman. He'll need the help of an untested WR cast, and the rushing offense needs to improve from being 10th in the SEC last year. Defensively, they've gotten more girth in the middle of the D-line, which should help them play their 3-4.

UGA is just good now, they'll be a powerhouse in 2012.

Key Games:
9/3 vs. Boise State (in Atlanta, GA)
9/10 vs. South Carolina
10/1 vs. Mississippi State

Prediction: 9-3, 2nd SEC East

5. LSU Tigers

Will QB Jordan Jefferson finish the season as the starter? That's up in the air. The Tigers' intermittent offense was why they lost to Auburn and Arkansas last year. And things don't get much better in the backfield as RB Stevan Ridley needs to be replaced. Defense will be the key to LSU's success, but defense can take you only so far. We'll get to see how good LSU's defense is this weekend.

Key Games:
9/3 vs. Oregon (in Arlington, TX)
9/15 @ Mississippi State
9/24 @ West Virginia
11/5 @ Alabama
11/25 vs. Arkansas

Prediction: 9-3

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs should have a balanced offense thanks to a rush game that's proved itself strong and an improved passing game. The defensive line will be the key to improving performance on the other side of the ball, and the LBs need to learn how to make plays fast. If the defense can stop the run, the Bulldogs can play ball with the big boys in the SEC West. This will not be an easy team to beat.

Key Games:
9/15 vs. LSU
10/1 @ Georgia
10/15 vs. South Carolina
11/12 @ Alabama
10/19 @ Arkansas (in Little Rock, AR)

Prediction: 9-3

7. Auburn Tigers

How good is the SEC? The defending National Champs are the 7th best team. Anyway, the Tigers only return 2 starters on offense, 3 on defense. RB Michael Dyer will be the workhorse of the offense. He ran for over 1,000 as a freshman. But questions surrounding the QB, WR, and line positions means it'll be a long year in Auburn.

There's only one senior starting on defense. In any other division in any other conference, Auburn would have a chance. But not with trips to Columbia, SC; Fayeteville, AR; Baton Rouge, LA; and Athens, GA.

Prediction: 7-5

8. Florida Gators

What a surprise, people are overrating Florida. But not me. Their offense is neither talented nor tested. Their defense returns only 3 starters and most players will need a full season to properly mature. They'll be tough to play, but they are quite beatable.

Prediction: 7-5

9. Kentucky Wildcats

UK lost its skill position talent. Defensively, they do have a star in LB Danny Trevathan, who made 144 tackles last year. Their defense is OK, and they'll perhaps be part of an upset that alters the outcome of the SEC.

Prediction: 6-6

10. Tennessee Volunteers

This is a year for the Vols' offense to improve after being 11th in the SEC. They have talented pieces, like sophomore QB Tyler Bray, who did well down the stretch in 2010. However, their defensive situation is utterly disorganized. They could make a bowl game in 2011, and they could do much more in 2012.

Prediction: 5-7

11. Ole Miss Rebels

One player sums up Ole Miss' football program. And that one player is RB Brandon Bolden who is the leading returning passer (1/1 for 7 yards), rusher (163 carries, 976 yards, 14 TDs), and receiver (34 catches, 344 yards, 3 TDs). He's the only talent at the skill-positions. He'll at least have a decent line to run behind. Defensively, the Rebels will be toyed with by their 5 bigger brothers in the SEC West.

12. Vanderbilt Commodores

The Commodores return 10 offensive starters... unfortunately. Because they were 112th in scoring last year and 110th in total yardage. On the plus side, they were 80th in rushing yards. The quality they have on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield will keep teams from blowing them out too badly, but that'll only affect the spread, and not much more.

Prediction: 2-10

TEXAS A&M TO STAY IN BIG XII

The Big XII can breath a little easier, at least for now. While Texas A&M wanted to join the SEC, the amount of obstacles potentially blocking such a move were too many to overcome. A 13 team SEC would present scheduling difficulties, a 14 team begs the obvious question "who would be team #14?" Then there was a minefield of legal difficulties, most of which originated from the Lonestar State.

So for now, Texas A&M will remain in the 10 team Big XII.

But I think eventually, the Big XII will be torn asunder. The Pac-12 must still be considering a move to 16 teams. The SEC seems to be thinking about the same thing. Missouri wants to be part of the Big Ten. And who knows, the Big East might want to cherry-pick another team from the Central Time Zone.

In a few years, all the conferences are going to look different. Originally, the conferences were formed based on region and size of the school, as well as how much focus schools had on athletics. Now, conferences are being reshuffled based on TV dollars. That's why the Big East snatched up TCU, why BC is in the ACC, and why the centrally located Big XII is being ripped apart.

One thing I expect to happen shortly is a process of shedding inferior programs. Conferences will drop the schools that can't make big bowl games, don't make the NCAA basketball tournament, and are never on national television. The SEC will drop Mississippi State, The Big XII (if it still exists) may drop Iowa State. The Big Ten may send Northwestern packing.

The age of the super-conferences will soon be upon us.

TEXAS A&M TO SEC?

When Texas decided to stay in the Big XII, the conference seemed like it had been saved from being carved up by the SEC, BigTen, and Pac-10. But they're still vulnerable. Texas A&M might be leaving the 10 team Big XII.

On August 22, A&M's regents board will decide the fate of the historic football program.

To be honest, I can understand why A&M might want to do this. Part of the reason U-Texas decided to remain in the Big XII was because it would be receiving a lion's share of revenues. Texas is the king of the Big XII, which is becoming an ever smaller kingdom. A&M could move east to the SEC, where the throne is contested, and they'd be treated as an equal.

And the Big XII can survive without A&M. Frankly, they let TCU slip through their fingers. The Frogs would have been a perfect addition to the conference, joining the 4 other Texas based programs of the Big XII.

And if A&M goes to the SEC, does the SEC kick someone out? Vanderbilt, perhaps? Mississippi State? There's also rumors of Florida State joining the SEC, which could force the ACC to add a team. The musical chairs in college football continues.