The Patriots were on the clock, Malcolm Brown was probably the best player still on the board, and the Pats have a need on the defensive line. Under those circumstances, you'd expect Bill Belichick to do the unexpected and trade out of the first round. Instead, the Patriots made the obvious pick.
I'm satisfied with getting this player at pick #32. Brown won't be as good as Wilfork was in his prime. But for the next 4-6 years, Brown will be better than what Wilfork would have been here.
I could regurgitate all the draft analysis crap about how thick Brown is, how well his hips move, what kind of motor he has. I hate that cliched crap. What I will say is that at 32, this is the type of player you expect to draft. Maybe slightly better than expectations. You won't get an exciting playmaker at 32 unless he has an injury and/or criminal record. The last two times the Patriots picked at 32, they selected Logan Mankins in 2005 and Benjamin Watson in 2004. Matt Elam, David Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater. Those are other recent 32nd picks.
To sum up this pick in a word, it's "fine." This was a fine pick. I am fine with this pick. I think Malcolm Brown will be a fine player who will have a fine career. This pick is the equivalent of moving the ball 4 yards on 2nd and 10. It's good, it helps your cause, but by itself it doesn't mean a lot.
And again, that's what to expect when you're picking last.
I'm glad that the Patriots didn't trade up, because all the experts who have been watching college players' hips for the past 3 months pretty much agreed that this wasn't a talent rich draft. I'm also glad the Pats didn't move down, because those hip-obsessed experts also say that Brown is a good player, so I'm glad the Patriots took advantage of the opportunity to pick him.
Two closing thoughts:
Brown is listed as 13 pounds lighter than Wilfork, and there's no way in hell that's true. Brown is a big guy, but Wilfork has at least 50 pounds on him. So Brown better start gorging on pizza sheets and turkeys from Big Y.
Finally, how awesome is it to have the 32nd pick again? It's just a fantastically awesome number, isn't it?
I don't know if fans will approve of the Patriots drafting Dominique Easley, or disapprove. On the one hand the Patriots didn't trade down, and people seem to hate when they do that. They also drafted defense, which many fans wanted them to do.
On the other hand, Dominique Easley has injury problems. He might even be "injury prone." And he also went to school at the same place that some other unsuccessful Patriots draftees played (Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Spikes, Chad Jackson, and I'm sure people will include no-lose acquisitions like Tim Tebow and Olympic sprinter Jeff Demps).
I'll address the Florida Gator concern first. Do you really want the Patriots to avoid drafting players from one of the top programs in the top college football conference in the country? Just because their previous choices from that school haven't worked out? Do you really want Belichick and the Patriots personnel people to say "We like this guy... but he's a Gator... next?"
If Dominique Easley doesn't work out, it won't be because of where he went to school.
But he might not work out because of injury and his potential proneness to said injury. He's torn each of his ACLs. You tear one ACL and that's just football (see: Tom Brady, Wes Welker). You tear two and everyone takes a step back. You get that "injury prone" label. You fall from the top 10 to 29th, and projected by some to go even later.
I'm not a doctor. Most Patriots fans aren't doctors. I will say that ACL tears don't worry me as much as back issues. ACLs tear all the time in football, and it happening twice might be injury proneness, it might be horrible luck. Logan Mankins tore his ACL in college and he's played 14.4 games per season in the NFL. He even tore an ACL in 2012 and kept playing because he didn't realize it. Which is astounding. Mankins has torn an ACL twice, yet he isn't considered "injury prone."
Easley tore an ACL in November 2011. By September 2012 he was playing for Florida again. I'd be more concerned if he were one of those guys who came back from injury slowly (like Gronkowski). He evidently recovers at the expected rate. He played 13 games in 2012 and into 2013, then his other ACL tore. I'd be more concerned if the same ACL tore, because that would be another sign of possible recovery issues.
Despite the two tears, he managed to play 29 games for Florida.
He's still an unknown variable, just like any draft pick. Taking into consideration the "if healthy" tag does make him more of an unknown. What I like about this pick is that if he's good (and healthy), the Patriots can definitely use him. If he's not good, they don't depend on him. They can take a chance with a defensive lineman because they have some decent ones already. Signing Will Smith complements this pick very well.
The Patriots don't need Dominique Easley to be healthy to have a good defensive line. But if he is healthy, he can make that line significantly better, and younger. Wilfork, Kelly, Smith, Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, and then add Easley. Not too shabby. Then at linebacker you have Jerod Mayo back, Jamie Collins showed exciting sparks last year. Then the improved secondary with Revis and Browner...
It's not a bad defense. Easley can make it better. If he's injured or fails, the defense will still be good.
I love the NFL Draft, I hate Draft Day. I can't stand grown men acting like children the day before Christmas, hoping Santa Belichick comes down the chimney with a stud receiver, then getting all frustrated and whiny when they get socks (offensive linemen).
I can't stand people obsessively analyzing something that hasn't happened yet. It pisses me off when someone is pissed off that the Patriots might trade down, and the Draft is hours, even days away.
Sports are supposed to be enjoyable, not painful. But Patriots fans act like they've been constipated for 9 years, waiting to shit out another Lombardi Trophy, but mean old Ebeneezer Belichick keeps feeding them Imodium to keep Pats fans blocked up and prevent them from the relief that Super Bowl #4 would provide.
"I don't want the Patriots to trade down..."
"The Pats should trade down..."
"They should trade up..."
"They should draft a linebacker..."
"They need a receiver..."
"This kid Random Name from Some School State would be perfect..."
The demands of these whiny fans are relentless. And if they don't get what they want, you hear about it on Friday. You hear about it all year.
Amateur GMs who watch a few college games in the fall, then read a draft preview magazine while they're on the john, consider themselves to be Draft Day experts. There are people out there whose full-time job it is to evaluate the talent of these college players, and not only do they get it wrong sometimes, they frequently disagree with each other.
It's not a crapshoot, but there is an unpredictable element to it. Imagine if your workplace selected you based on how you performed at college. I know successful people that could barely pass a test, and I know unsuccessful people that were honor students.
And yet some of you people out there, who spend a handful of hours a year watching Alabama play Auburn and Michigan play Penn State think you can predict which players will succeed in the NFL and which won't.
It's one thing to have fun with it, have friendly arguments with your friends about it, speculate, guess, predict. That's all part of the fun of being a sports fan, second-guessing included. But the people who get emotional about it, that's just pathetic. The people who can't focus on their lives because the Patriots picked a tight-end and not a pass rusher, who grumble and groan about Belichick and the "Patriot Way." These people are emotionally scarred by the departures of Adam Vinatieri and Richard Seymour. I'd pity them if they didn't annoy me so much.
You don't know as much as you think you know. None of us do. And the people doing the selecting spend their entire year doing this, and even they screw up.
So I don't know what the Patriots will do. Nor do I know what they should do. I'll sit back and enjoy the Bruins game, occasionally catch a glimpse of the Draft. I probably won't cheer whoever the Patriots pick, nor will I boo them, the way Texans fans booed J.J. Watt in 2011 or Jets fans cheered Vernon Gholston in 2008.
Johnny Manziel dazzles on the field with brilliant performances, like his 5 touchdown, 562 total yard game against Alabama. He's probably the most exciting player in college football, and he deserved the Heisman he won last year as the best player. However, I have yet to see anything that makes me think he'll have any measure of success in the NFL.
He has a strong arm. Great. There have been countless strong armed QBs who have failed miserably in the NFL. Manziel possesses the physical talents of an NFL QB. And he can even run, which is a bonus. Although he's also short (listed at 6' 1" but I'm not so sure about that). So that scram-bility is countered by the inability to see the field when surrounded by the behemoths of the NFL.
The height issue is minor, so forget about that. After all, Michael Vick is 6' and he's done okay in the NFL.
When I see Manziel make plays against college players, like he did against 'Bama this past weekend, I see a scrambler who takes advantage of defenses that don't contain the edge. Those reverse-field lanes won't be open for Manziel in the NFL. Bigger, faster, smarter defensive players will keep him much more contained than college defenses.
I see Manziel throwing a jump ball to 6' 5" Mike Evans, who is in single coverage against a small CB who doesn't have the awareness to turn around and play the ball. Corners who are that vulnerable are rarities in the NFL. Even the small ones know when to turn and jump to disrupt the play.
Then there's his decision-making. He seems more interested in making the big flashy play and not the smart play. Here's a highlight-reel throw that only he could make:
That's a great play, but a horrible decision. In a 14-14 game you blindly heave a ball downfield? You risk a turnover (and a return) just for a first down?
It worked, but I wasn't impressed. It reminded me of Brett Favre at his most moronic. And then seeing how impressed Manziel was with himself at making a lucky play, that revealed a great deal about Manziel's personality. What showed even more of that personality was his end zone interception 4 plays later, when he tried to make the difficult-but-amazing play instead of the easy play that was open.
Not only is Manziel willing to take stupid risks, he actively seeks them. Because that's how he gratifies himself. He builds his ego by taking risks and making big, flashy plays. He's cocky, not confident. Confidence withstands adversity, cockiness constantly seeks justification.
His off-field decision making is also questionable. I don't care about the partying or the sex or the drinking. If I were the QB at A&M, I'd be enjoying my share of T&A as well. But Manziel publicizes it. He revels in it. He broadcasts what he does. And that's not a desirable trait.
What motivates him to be so public about his private life?
Then there's his exit to the Manning Passing Academy. I don't care about his going out in New Orleans and drinking. Again, it's his life, live it up. But if you commit to something, then do it. He committed to an off-season academy and didn't follow through. And if you want to go out and party, then get away with it. Don't put yourself in a position to get caught. He was an idiot for thinking he'd get away with it.
As much as other athletes like Gronkowski party, they don't let it impact their commitments. Manziel is more like a Tyler Seguin type. He can't put the partying on hold, even for a few days. It's part of the massive ego he's built. And when criticized or questioned, he becomes spiky and defensive of his lifestyle.
For now, his on-field performances make his off-field activities a moot point. But at some point he will want to join the NFL. He will have to take that leap that all college players take. He'll go from being the big fish in the small pond to the minnow in the ocean.
How will he adjust? What will challenge him to make himself better? Guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers all found a challenge that they used as motivation. Peyton was challenged by his family, Brady by his 6th round selection, Rodgers by being stuck behind Favre.
The QBs that fail in the NFL are the ones that don't face challenges. They cruise on talent and standard levels of effort. Then they get to the League, and they get baffled by the challenge. They have no idea how to approach it. Ryan Leaf, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, etc.
Johnny Manziel lives in a world in which he is the center, he is the best, and everything he does is right. That works for him at A&M. And it works for the Aggies. However, that kind of attitude doesn't work for a rookie QB in the NFL.
I'd prefer AJ McCarron, who is more confident than cocky. Who looks for the smart play not the big play. Who has been challenged by Nick Saban to be the best he can be for the best team in the country. I'd give Manziel another Heisman over McCarron, I'd draft McCarron over Manziel.
But if the NFL doesn't pan out for Manziel, maybe he and Tim Tebow could star in an Odd Couple reality show. Maybe one week Tebow could bring Manziel to church on Sunday morning and the next week Manziel could bring Tebow to a club until 4 AM and have a drunken orgy with a group of Swedish exchange students. We can call the show Holy and Horny: The Heisman Homies.
So yesterday afternoon I would turn on Felger and Mazz, then after 3 minutes of listening to their inane, ignorant, and repetitive whining about the Patriots Draft, I'd have to turn off the radio.
What pisses me off is that they repeatedly admit that they don't know much about these college players, and just before they say they disagree with what the Patriots did, they say "I don't understand." They don't understand, so they disagree.
They questioned the Patriots trading out of the 1st round. But this was the most unremarkable, mediocre draft in recent memory. Unless you were looking for offensive tackles, this draft was like a buffet of bologna sandwiches. Some had mustard. Some didn't. None of them were worth cutting in line. And maybe it was better to wait longer to get more.
Neither Felger and Mazz asked or answered a simple question: Who would you have taken at 29? Who was so good at 29? All of the players out there, apart from a few taken at the front of the draft, were if-he-can players. All of the players available were chances. It made sense to take more chances than just one.
And other teams felt the same. The Chiefs waited as long as possible for someone to offer to take the #1 overall pick. Other teams traded out. It seemed like only the Jets and Vikings truly wanted to pick in the First Round.
Then Felger and Mazz criticized the amount of Rutgers players taken. Felger got emotional and accused the Patriots of taking players because Bill Belichick's son Stephen Belichick might have known them in class.
Rutgers had the #4 defense in college football last year (behind Alabama, Notre Dame, and BYU). They allowed 14.2 points per game, and only 20 offensive TDs (the same amount Bama allowed) in 13 games. The Patriots drafted two DBs and a linebacker from that defense. I doubt they went into the Draft planning to take three Scarlet Knights. But in the later rounds they were still there. They took three players from a good defense, who were coached well, who might fit into the Patriots system.
No matter what happened in the Draft, Felger and Mazz were going to have a Monday show revolving around how the Patriots think they're smarter than everyone else. They have fallen in love with that narrative based on selective facts, uninformed opinions, and emotional baggage from the 2005 Patriots offseason.
I know writing a blog post about what a pair of jabbering sportsradio personalities fill their 4 hours with is kind of lame. But these two reached an uncharted level of simple-mindedness, emotionalism, and whining. Felger was spouting baseless conspiracy theories. Mazz sounded like a C- student complaining that he didn't understand the test, even though the A and B students had no complaints. Mazz sounded the most like the kid who doesn't get algebra when Mike from Wayland called, and Mazz thought he caught the caller on a mistake. "Yes you did! Yes you did! Yes you did!"
I'm surprised Mazz didn't say "I am rubber, you are glue," or "Takes one to know one."
Every fact that was brought up to refute Felger's theories was dismissed. Every questioning of Mazz's complaints was misunderstood.
They don't understand, so they get frustrated. THERE WAS NOBODY BLATANTLY GOOD AT 29. Rutgers had a great defense. The Patriots have drafted well recently. They traded up last year when suitable talent was available. This year the situation was different. But such a thought is too complex for them to understand. And instead of trying to understand something that strays from the narrative they've constructed, they strongly disagree with it.
I'm done venting. Give Mike from Wayland his own segment on the show. Even if it's just to school Felger.
If you were expecting much from this draft, you're either very optimistic, very unrealistic, or very stupid. The draft as a whole was low on talent. Can you remember the last time the team picking #1 overall waited as long as possible for someone to trade for their pick? The Pats were also picking at the tail-end of the draft. And unlike past years they didn't have many picks coming in.
All things considered, I think the Patriots did okay. They found some decent talent that could contribute in different ways. They found some guys who have problems, and if those problems are sorted they can be very good. They also made a deal to acquire LeGarrette Blount, who ran for over 1,000 yards in 2010. They got him for a 7th round pick and an Olympic runner who wants to be a part-time football player.
The Pats traded out of the first-round, which upset some people, seemingly more on principle than on losing a chance to get any specific player. Everyone I've heard complain about this trade has been unable to answer the question "Who would you have taken at 29?" These people have emotional baggage from previous drafts. They're mad at the idea of trading a pick (even though other teams did it), not this specific instance. The Patriots made a good deal to add to their number of selections in a very hit-or-miss, mediocre draft.
And here are my thoughts on who they took...
Jamie Collins, an OLB/DE was their first pick. Collins had a great junior year, but "dogged it" his senior year. He was playing for a very bad team. Some teams stay away from guys with his kind of reputation. But a good team with a good coach can take the chance. The logic is simple. If he tries, he's athletic enough to find a place on the field. If he doesn't, he's gone.
Then they drafted WR Aaron Dobson out of Marshall. He played as an X receiver with a bad QB. Now he'll be in the mix with a good QB. With the lack of current depth at WR on the team, Dobson has a chance to get reps. He just needs to learn the playbook, which is always tough for new players.
The Patriots drafted a pair of DBs from Rutgers in the 3rd round. They'll join former Scarlet Knight Devin McCourty. For the first time in years, the Patriots have a secondary that is not a complete mess at the top of the depth chart. Talib was a key player whose loss hurt in the playoffs. Dennard is an early-round talent who could be even better in his sophomore season. What the Pats need is depth in the secondary. The dropoff from Talib to backups is what killed them in the AFC Championship game. Neither of these guys seem like they'll be big impact players, but both should get playing time in certain situations. And that's what the Pats desperately needed from their defensive backfield.
In the 4th round the Pats took another WR, Josh Boyce out of TCU. He is a combine stud. Fast, agile, can be an outside-the-numbers threat. But he's inconsistent with blocking and catching. He entered the Draft as a junior so he might be able to hone those skills. If he can, he'll be very productive. If not, he'll be an obscure memory and an Arena League All-Star.
Michael Buchannan is a 6' 5" frame that needs to be filled in. He needs strength. Plain and simple. He's a DE/OLB that can drop into coverage, but he needs to get bigger. He also has a DUI arrest. So stop drinking and start lifting, Michael.
The Patriots ended their draft by taking their third Rutgers defensive player, linebacker Steve Beauharnais. He's small, but smart. He can play in different situations, including special teams. As far as 7th round picks go, he's not bad. Lots of upside here. Undersized LBs have done well on this team before.
So no players who will have jerseys sold at the Pro Shop anytime soon. The players that have the most upside also have downsides. There are a lot of "if he can" players here. So maybe one or two hit big. Maybe one or two find a role as a backup. And the rest get real jobs.
It's difficult to get excited about trading down. It's much easier to get excited about the potential of a brand new player. The Patriots replenished their picks by trading their first-rounder for four picks. But those picks don't have highlight reels. They don't have 40 times. They're not "long," they don't have a "motor."
It's hard to get pumped about adding picks.
At the same time, what player was around at the 29th pick that was exciting? That WR from Clemson was gone. It was a very unspectacular bunch of players.
It isn't just about the deal with the Patriots. It isn't just about the price or the value. It is about the players, or lack of players. Last year there were players they wanted, and they moved up to get them. This year there wasn't anyone the Pats were excited about. The Vikings were willing to surrender a boatload of picks. It made sense, to the Patriots, to make the deal.
Just like they emphasize situational football, they also made this move because of the situation. The trade was good enough, the players weren't. Simple as that. Had other players been available, maybe they don't make the deal. If the Vikings don't offer as much, or another team offered more, they don't trade with Minnesota.
In Bill We Trust. Some people say that with sarcasm. Then they list all the mistakes that "Bellichick the GM" has made over the years. Then they rant about Richard Seymour and Asante Samuel.
Belichick isn't perfect. The Patriots make mistakes. But in the long run it's smart to bet on them. So whatever the Pats do tonight, it's probably a good, smart move.
I have no idea who most of these college players are. I also have no idea how they will do in the NFL. And guess what, nobody else does. Although people like to think they do. People like to think they know the game more than Belichick. Which is preposterous. I don't think anybody understands the game and the cap like the Patriots and Belichick. Certainly not some sportsradio hindsightist, and certainly not some token fan.
Sorry, you don't know as much as him. Not even close.
I'm not saying you should agree with everything the Patriots do. I'm saying that if you don't get it, just roll with it. Why get stressed?
Do you understand everything about human anatomy? Do you understand how to pilot a plane? Do you get the bond market? You trust doctors to take care of you when you're sick, you trust a stranger with wings pinned on his shirt to control an airplane, and you give someone in a suit money for your retirement. You trust these people because they're experts.
Guess what, Bill Belichick is an expert. The proof is in the results. 13 seasons running this team, 10 division titles, 5 conference titles, 3 Super Bowls. He's the most successful GM in franchise history, and the most successful current GM in the New England sports scene. Yet "Bellichick the GM" probably gets more criticism than Ainge, Chiarelli, and Cherington combined.
Why? Because people sometimes don't understand what he's doing. And he won't bother to explain it. And he also doesn't get emotionally attached to players like fans do.
He dropped Lawyer Milloy and was heavily criticized for it. He cut ties with Randy Moss and people scratched their heads. His doubters enjoy bringing up Seymour and Samuel, but how did the Raiders and Eagles do with them? These doubters get headaches if you say "well they got cap room when they didn't sign these guys." They don't want to allow thought to interrupt their emotional outbursts.
Now it's Wes Welker. Never has a region been so emotionally devastated because a stranger was leaving. People were pissed at Belichick. Some blamed the "Patriots way" as the reason the Pats didn't win the Super Bowl these past two seasons. These same people conveniently forgot Welker's huge drops in big games. The roster was good enough to win, the players didn't execute.
And let's not forget who acquired Welker in the first place. Belichick the GM. Welker was one of those Wal-Mart bargain value players that people chide Belichick for acquiring.
So I have no clue what will happen tonight. Will the Pats trade up? Will they trade down? Will they trade Mallett? Will they take a wide receiver? A cornerback?
I don't know. Belichick is the doctor/pilot/investment banker/lawyer/accountant. He's the professional. I'll let him do surgery, fly the plane, pick the stock, file the lawsuit, do my taxes. He knows what he's doing. He isn't always right (thankfully he's not a surgeon), but investors don't always pick the right stock. The good ones are right enough to make a profit. And judging by the silver and gold in the Patriots Hall of Fame, and on Bill's fingers, he seems to have invested wisely.
It's not worth getting stressed out over, people. It's very relaxing to just sit back and enjoy the show. It is, after all, a game. Have some fun watching it and thinking about it.
The Patriots took a receiver with their last pick. Jeremy Ebert out of Northwestern. He caught 75 passes his senior season, for 1,065 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's nothing to dismiss lightly. He might have trouble finding a roster spot considering how many people are vying for a spot on the WR list.
He's 5' 11" and 200 pounds, but this guy might just find his way on the roster in September.
I definitely give this pick two thumbs up (get it? because his name is Ebert). As I give to the whole draft. Exciting playmakers in the first round, a guy who seems like a reliable defensive back in the 2nd, an All-SEC pass rusher in the 3rd, then it got weird. A rugby player in the 6th, an alleged criminal in the 7th, then a guy with great numbers to end the 7th.
It's always tough to gauge the success of a draft before any of these players even get numbers assigned to them, let alone take the field, let alone play a game. But I think the Patriots have drastically improved the potential quality of their defense. And if just one or two of these guys work out, the Patriots' defensive unit will be much better in 2012.
The Patriots drafted a project/accused criminal in the 7th round. Alfonzo Dennard has ridiculous talent, and was a shutdown corner in the Big Ten for Nebraska. But he ended his senior season with an ejection in the CapitalOne Bowl.
Then he had a disappointing combine.
Oh, and he was in jail as recently as last Monday for resisting being placed in custody and assaulting a police officer. The story is that he was being belligerent outside a bar, was asked twice by police to leave the area, and was later seen pushing and punching another person in the same area. Police tried to put him in custody, he resisted, more pushing and punching with the cops, and hence the arrest.
This is a first round talent taken in the 7th round. This guy might sound like a bit of a loser, but the Patriots can't lose on this pick.
I have no idea how well Belichick and the locker room leaders will do to help Dennard to get his act together. But if he doesn't, he won't get 3 chances like he did with the cops in Lincoln. He'll get 1.
In the entire NFL Draft, Dennard might have the biggest gap between his potential upside and his potential downside. He's talented enough to be in the Pro Bowl. He's also capable of winding up in prison. Belichick is probably thrilled with this pick. And so is whoever coaches football at the Correctional Institution in Walpole.
The Patriots didn't have any 4th or 5th round picks. In the 6th, they took Nate Ebner, who didn't even play football in high school. He played rugby. And he walked on to the Ohio State football team and became a special teams specialist. He was drafted as a safety but only played three snaps at that position his senior year.
Ebner's true position is a special teams psycho. He claims to enjoy the "mayhem" of kickoff coverage most of all.
Rugby players are crazy.
In the 6th round, the odds are slim of drafting a guy who will make an impact in one of the 22 regular positions. So why not draft an insane rugby player and put him on special teams? You're much more likely to get a positive contribution from him than from a 6th round RB or offensive tackle.
And maybe if the Dolphins try to get clever with some sort of Wildcat 2.0 formation, or if the Jets use Tebow in the option, Ebner can use his rugby experience to counter that. Especially the option, which is very similar to rugby plays.
In the 3rd round, the Patriots took Jake Bequette, a defensive end from Arkansas. The all SEC pass rusher recorded 10 sacks his senior season. He's 6' 5" 271 pounds and can play as an OLB or a DE.
He missed 3 games because of a hamstring issue. And the word is he's not that great as an edge rusher. But I'll take an All-SEC defensive end with the 90th overall pick. That's fine. He seems like he has tremendous upside. And even if he doesn't fully reach that level, his versatility will help him find a role on the team.
Bequette finished his college career with 23 sacks, among the all-time leaders at Arkansas. He won the Defensive MVP award at the Cotton Bowl. And he knows what it's like to win. The Razorbacks have won 29 games the last 3 seasons.
I think this is a really good pick at 90th overall.
The Patriots selected 7 players in the 2012 NFL Draft. And 6 of them play on the defensive side of the ball. Two linemen, a linebacker, and three defensive backs. Although one of those DBs is essentially a pure special teamer.
We know about Jones and Hightower. The fanbase seems pleased with that. But I'm sure they'll find something to bitch and moan about once Training Camp starts.
In the 2nd round, the Patriots drafted Tavon Wilson. Which shocked the experts who projected Wilson to go in the 6th or 7th round, if at all. Certainly not with the 48th overall pick in the draft. He wasn't even invited to the NFL Combine in Indianapolis.
Wilson is strong and versatile. He's 6' 0" and 205 pounds. He started three years at Illinois and switched between safety and cornerback. He also plays special teams. The more you learn about him, the more he seems like the type of guy the Patriots want and need.
Last season, the Patriots' defensive backfield was a hodgepodge, to put it politely. The 8-15 yard curl in the flat was open on every down. The Pats' secondary focused on not allowing 40 yard TD passes, and didn't even bother to cover huge swaths of territory underneath that.
They need versatility. They need reliability. Wilson is not a shutdown corner. That type of guy would be great, but I don't know if that would be enough to solve the Patriots' problems. Huge holes in the zone would still be there.
Wilson seems like a smart player. One that's easy to coach. The Pats' DBs last season were not very savvy. The defense had to be simplified to suit their talents and their awareness.
This guy will find his way onto the field. He'll play special teams, obviously, and the Pats' DB depth chart presents an opportunity for any young player to work his way to a starting role.
Yesterday I wrote a lengthy preemptive explanation of how the Patriots draft. I was expecting the fans of New England to be pissed today, as they usually are the day after the Patriots' activities in the first round.
Instead, the fans are happy. I'm happy. And I think that the Mayan end-of-the-world prophecy is happy too.
When Roger Goodell announced that the Patriots had made a move up in the draft, he might as well have been opening the Fifth Seal of the Apocalypse.
The Pats sent their 27th overall pick, along with their 3rd round pick (93rd overall) to the Bengals for the 21st pick. And they selected DE Chandler Jones from Syracuse.
Jones is a big man (6' 5" and 265 pounds) that has a big frame he can grow into. He only played 7 games of his junior year due to a knee injury in the middle of the season. But he totaled 4.5 sacks, 38 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and an interception. Which he returned for 32 yards.
He's an edge rusher. And if he lives up to his potential, the combination of him and Vince Wilfork could present opposing offensive lines with serious problems.
Minutes later, as the First Round zoomed by, the Patriots did it again. They made a deal with Denver, sending their 31st overall pick, along with their 4th rounder (126th overall) in exchange for the 25th pick.
With that, they drafted Alabama linebacker Dont'a Hightower.
Hightower is another large man. 6' 2" and 265. He can do just about everything that a linebacker could do. He can play in all defensive situations. That's something that Bill Belichick covets. And so does Nick Saban. Belichick loves drafting Saban coached players.
With Hightower's flexibility, he'll find a place in the Pats' LB corps. Which was already kind of good, if a little bit dull. Mayo is solid. Spikes showed some sparks last season.
The Pats like to mix up defensive formations, especially up front. Hightower's versatility enhances the Pats' ability to do that.
I'm not a huge fan of trading up. But the Patriots didn't give up much to move ahead. As Belichick noted in his post-draft press conference, they didn't give up any of their 2nd round picks to do so.
And I think these two particular players struck them as good fits. They didn't just get a pass rusher and a linebacker, they got two guys that they feel will excel in Foxborough.
So enjoy it, Pats fans. The Patriots did what you wanted.
The Patriots send their 31st pick to Denver, along with the 126th overall pick and traded up to 25th. They selected linebacker Dont'a Hightower out of Alabama. Hightower is 6' 2" and 265 pounds. He's a flexible player who can contribute in multiple defensive roles.
Belichick typically loves guys who have been coached by Nick Saban.
Patriot fans should be excited. They get to go to bed earlier and the Patriots got exactly the kinds of players everyone's been clamoring for.
The Pats sent their 27th pick to the Bengals, along with the 93rd overall pick for the 21st pick. And with it they selected defensive end Chandler Jones out of Syracuse. Jones is a monster at 6' 5" 265 pounds. Jones only played 7 games in 2011 but still managed 4.5 sacks, 39 tackles, and an interception. He's big, has a long sweeping stride, and isn't bad in coverage either. He's versatile.
We'll have more on this pick as well as the Patriots' night as a hole.
But this is simply shocking news. The Patriots surprised everyone by doing what fans expect/demand. They moved up and got a pass-rusher.
In this century, the Patriots are the most successful Boston sports team. Yet their moves are also the most heavily critiqued. Perhaps because those moves are the least understood by their fans.
That's not a knock on Pats fans. The football salary cap is the most complex in of all sports. Football rosters are also more than twice the size of the other sports. The pursuit of the best talent at the best price in the NFL is more complicated than buying and selling options on the Taiwanese bond market.
I have no idea who the Patriots will draft tonight. I have no idea what position he'll play. I don't know if the Patriots will make any trades with their picks. But I do know that the Patriots' Draft Day isn't random. There is a system in place, a strategy. There is a certain approach to the Draft that is distinctively Patriot-like.
There's an assessment of value, risk, and payoff. The Pats' War Room is more like the Chicago Board of Trade or New York Stock Exchange than a gathering of football minds.
As an outsider, I've tried to understand how and why the Patriots draft the way they do. And these are the rules/guidelines/strategies that I see:
TRADING FOR A BETTER PICK IS USUALLY A WORSE RISK:
Fans lament that the Patriots don't trade up and draft superior talent. There's a good reason they don't, and it isn't just to hoard picks for the future. There's a risk involved with every pick. In the NFL Draft, you're only selecting talent. With each player, there's a significant chance that they won't work out in the NFL. There's no way to predict how a player will react to the independence, to the money, to the competition, to being a big fish in a big pond.
If you trade up in the Draft, you are going to acquire superior talent. Which means the potential payoff is higher. But you're also risking more. Since you used other picks to move up, you're paying a higher price. Unnecessarily so. It's like betting more on a roulette wheel. You'll win more if you win, but lose more if you lose.
If the pick doesn't work, you'll also have inferior remaining picks to make up for the shortcoming. So not only do you risk more when you trade-up, you have weaker insurance to recover if the pick doesn't work out.
And typically to move up in the draft, you have to overpay. Look at what the Redskins paid to draft RG3. Even if RG3 turns out to be a superstar, the price was still ridiculous. And too much of a risk. RG3 might work out in Washington, but it's still a bad move. Bad moves sometimes work out. Good moves sometimes don't.
FUTURE PICKS ARE WORTH THE SAME AS PICKS NOW:
Speaking of the RG3 trade...
You see these kinds of deals all the time. Team A sends future picks to get Team B's superior picks in the current draft. And what you also see is the Patriots emerging from each draft with a load of future picks in their pocket.
Some teams seem to think that a 2013 pick is less valuable than a 2012 pick. And it isn't. They're worth the same. You can draft the same caliber of player and retain their talent for the same amount of time.
We're all fans and we all want our team to improve as much as possible right now on Draft Day. And every team has some area that it really needs to improve. But the need to improve will be just as pressing next April. The value of a pick now is the same as a pick next year. The Patriots take advantage of teams that are desperate to improve right now and are willing to sell future picks for a low cost.
Let's say I offered you a Hawaii vacation for $1,000. Does it matter if you take the vacation now or a year from now? Not really, not in the long run. And now let's say I offered you the same vacation package for $1,000 if you go now, or $800 if you go next year. Which would you take?
TWO PICKS ARE BETTER THAN ONE (AND NOT BECAUSE TWO PLAYERS ARE BETTER THAN ONE, THEY USUALLY AREN'T):
Two good picks are better than one great pick because of risk. As I mentioned earlier, each player drafted might not work out in the NFL. There's unpredictability. A way to manage that risk is to make more picks.
The Patriots love to increase their number of picks. And it's not because they want more players. It's because they want to have a better chance of getting players that will produce in the NFL.
Let's say I have $1,000 to gamble on NFL games. I could put it all on one game. But something crazy could happen, like an injury or a missed field goal. I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket. It's safer to bet $200 on 5 games. A crazy thing might still happen, but one or even two crazy things won't mess up my entire day of betting.
That's kind of what the Patriots do with their vast pool of draft picks. They know that each player has a chance of failure. So they'd rather spread that chance of failure around instead of hoping one guy works out. It's a safer, smarter way to invest.
And that's what these picks are: investments.
DON'T DRAFT BASED ON POSITION:
This is a classic gripe of Patriots fans. The Pats don't draft based on their needs or wants at certain positions.
The Patriots draft the best talent available when they pick.
If you have the 30th pick, and you need a linebacker, and there's one available. Why not pick him? If he's worth a 30th overall pick then fine. But if he's worth the 40th pick then it's a bad move to take him.
Why reach? Why use the 30th pick to take someone who is worth a 40th pick? Picks are like money. And players are like groceries. It's like spending $10 on a head of lettuce just because you need a salad to complete a meal. Just go without the salad and buy more pork because it's on sale. You won't go hungry. You'll just have a different looking meal that's stronger in another area.
Besides, drafting based on what you need tends to be a bad idea anyway, even if the price is right. There is a significant chance that the player drafted won't work out. So you spend that pick to get someone, he doesn't work out, and you're in exactly the same situation only you've lost that pick.
If you really need help at a position, it's better to sign and trade for players who have NFL experience. It's much easier to predict how well they will fill that need.
You'll end every draft with needs. You'll start every season with needs. You should try to fill them. But if you overspend picks and cap space to fill that need, you'll just create needs at other positions. And you'll have fewer resources to try to address those needs.
The Patriots need a CB, for instance. If they acquired Asante Samuel and his hefty contract, they'd address their need at CB but create a need somewhere else because of all the cap money Samuel would consume.
You don't help yourself, you hurt yourself.
We're all fans, and we're all excited to see the Patriots improve themselves. We get giddy at the idea of some star linebacker wearing a Patriots jersey. But the guys running the Pats' Draft aren't fans. This is their business. And they treat it like a business.
Fans like to point out anecdotal evidence of picks not working out. I know 98.5's Felger and Mazz were heavily criticizing the Patriots' Draft strategy yesterday. I think it makes sense. I think it works out. It builds consistency. The Patriots don't draft amazingly well, but they always find themselves rich with picks. Which allows them to stay competitive year after year.
And for this year's Draft, the only thing I can predict is that Pats fans will be upset after tonight.
Patriot fans seemed excited about this draft, perhaps more than previous years. They held a bevy of 2nd round picks, and it was hoped that their team would use them to fill their numerous defensive gaps. And to be frank, Pats fans were setting themselves up for disappointment. Unless the Pats traded up in the 1st round (what are the odds of that ever happening?), they weren't going to get any glamorous, big-name, "stud" players.
But as much as I defend the Patriots, this off-season as a whole has been nothing short of unfortunate. This team has holes on both offense and defense. Through free agency, trades, and the draft, they've done next to nothing to improve.
The running game remains an inconsistent and unpredictable (the last things a running game should be) secondary offensive option. So get used to more Red Zone disappointments.
The pass rush will continue to struggle, forcing a weak secondary to cover (or try to) for an eternity.
The Pats' receivers are good, but not great.
I guess you could call the 2010 Patriots' campaigns "bridge season," waiting for exorbitant contracts to expire and make space more productive players.
Anyway, here's who the Patriots drafted.
1ST ROUND, 27TH PICK, 27TH OVERALL: DEVIN MCCOURTY - CB, RUTGERS
Everyone in New England was expecting the Pats to draft an outside linebacker or defensive end here. Somehow, these people have forgotten that Bill Belichick rarely drafts what you'd expect. But in hindsight, this pick shouldn't shock anyone. The Pats' secondary was dreadful last year, and has been an Achilles heel for several seasons. The big reason the Pats and their fans want a higher intensity pass rush is to protect their vulnerable secondary.
McCourty was solid as a 3 year starter at Rutgers. There was a run on corners right after the Pats picked, so had they waited for the 2nd, the talent level would have dropped significantly. Given the Patriots' lack of quality and experience at the position, McCourty has the opportunity to earn any slot on the depth chart. But he'll certainly contribute on special teams, particularly on punt/kick blocking.
Now this is the pick that aggravated me. If the Patriots wanted a tight-end, they could have NOT traded down in the 1st, taken Oklahoma's Jermaine Gresham (who is a stud). Gronkowski missed the '09 season with a back injury, which is why a guy with his talent and size (6' 6" 264 lbs) fell to the 2nd round. In 2008 with Arizona he caught 47 passes for 672 yards and 10 touchdowns. If the back problems are behind him, he could be an excellent Red Zone weapon. He's also an adept blocker.
Finally, the Patriots selected an outside pass rusher. Cunningham had 7 sacks last year, and 18 in three years as a starter. But he didn't reach that next level in his senior season as some might have expected. He was also arrested in 2007 for throwing soda cans at a sandwich shop clerk at 2:49 in the morning in a dispute about paying for a bag of chips. He played defensive end in school, but will likely move back to OLB in a 3-4.
I imagine getting drafted by an NFL team is pretty sweet. Then to find out that one of your teammates got drafted by them 9 picks later must be the cherry on top. Like a lot of guys in the late 2nd round, he's got lots of upside and lots of downside. His combine was forgettable, and he missed a few games in the '09 season. He accumulated 52 tackles in 10 games his senior season, along with 3 sacks, and 2 INTs. He could compliment Jerod Mayo very nicely.
I like this pick a lot, even though it wasn't on the defensive side of the ball. It's just nice that the Patriots drafted a WR who didn't have injury problems. That being said, U-Ohio is hardly known as a receiver factory. And Price's best game was against I-AA Cal Poly when he racked up 135 yards. It was his only 100+ game of the season. Price adds much needed depth and youth to the position.
Another tight-end? Haven't we seen this before from Belichick? The dude just loves tight-ends. But the experts are saying that Hernandez is a quality receiving tight-end. He caught 68 passes in '09, for 850 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's not as versatile as Gronkwoski, but is perhaps a better pass catcher. He could get bigger and tougher.
How do you get a name like Zoltan? You get born in Romania. Only three punters were taken in the draft. The other two were taken in later rounds. So for the Pats to spend a 5th round pick on a punter, he's better be great. He was first team All-Big Ten in '08 and '09.
ZOLTAN!
6TH ROUND, 36TH PICK, 205TH OVERALL: TED LARSEN - C, NC STATE
Larsen has the skills, but lacks the size. He's a serviceable backup lineman that can fill-in. He's tough and durable, and rarely wears out at the end of games.
7TH ROUND, 1ST PICK, 208TH OVERALL: THOMAS WELCH - OT, VANDERBILT
Another O-lineman who can do a few things really well, but gets exposed in other situations. He's 6' 7" and 300 pounds, but struggles to stay low (as you might imagine). Another attempt at depth here.
7TH ROUND, 40TH PICK, 247TH OVERALL: BRANDON DEADERICK - DE, ALABAMA
It wouldn't be an NFL Draft if Belichick didn't select a Nick Saban product. Deaderick is versatile and can contribute in multiple ways. He can play outside in a 3-4, inside in a 4-3. Belichick loves having a guy like that on the roster. He got shot in the '09 season, by a gun, and returned to practice two days later. Belichick loves having guys like that on the roster.
7TH ROUND, 41ST PICK, 248TH OVERALL: KADE WESTON - DT, GEORGIA
Weston's 6' 5" and 304 pounds. He can push up into the backfield, and he's done well to improve himself in college. It's hard to project the 248th overall pick to even make an NFL roster, but if he does, it will be because he's worked hard to improve his shortcomings.
7TH ROUND, 43RD PICK, 250TH OVERALL: ZAC ROBINSON - QB, OKLAHOMA STATE
Robinson's senior campaign was a major disappointment. As a sophomore and junior he surpassed 23 touchdowns each season, and threw 9 and 10 picks, respectively. He was also a much bigger threat on the ground, running for 847 yards his sophomore year. But senior year, he threw 15 TDs and 12 INTs. He only rushed for 305 yards. He has a shot to be the Pats' #3 QB.
So that's the Patriots draft. It's not awful. They did get some decent LBs. They addressed their vacancies at tight-end. They added depth at CB and WR.
But no running backs. And that's unfortunate. The Pats need a running game to help stifle opposing pass rushers, maintain ball possession, run out the clock, and punch the ball into the end zone. Oh well. At least they didn't draft Tebow. Good luck with that, McDaniels.
So much anger last night and today. People seemed stunned that the Patriots drafted CB Devin McCourty out of Rutgers. Folks are acting as though the Pats took a punter or a long-snapper with their pick.
Who were the Patriots' CBs last year? Jonathan Wilhite, Leigh Bodden, Terrence Wheatley, Shawn Springs, Darius Butler. This is not a list of past or future Pro Bowlers here. The Patriots' defense was shady and suspect at every position. The Pats couldn't go wrong drafting any defensive player in the 1st round.
I'm not in love with McCourty, nor am I projecting him to be the next Ty Law or Darrel Revis. But I will contend that drafting a CB is not a mistake here. The Patriots still have needs to address needs at other positions, notably linebacker. But they have 3 picks in the 2nd round to deal with those issues.
So get the fuck over it, fellow Patriots fans. The Pats drafted a guy who plays a position that has been an embarrassment for the Patriots ever since the departure of Asante Samuel.
