Patriots now more likely to win another Super Bowl after Goodell provided them with adversity

There's a factory in Foxborough, Mass. that takes the raw material of adversity and somehow turns it into wins. A few months ago the workers there turned an overblown story about under-inflated footballs into a shiny silver trophy. Several years ago they turned an uproar over videotaping signals which were visible to tens of thousands of people, into a nearly perfect season. The year after that, they went 11-5 despite losing their All-Pro quarterback. And a few years before that, a team that lost 31-0 to the Bills went on to win 21 games and 2 Super Bowls in a row.

The team most likely to succeed in adverse situations is the New England Patriots. They've gone through more -gates than a flight attendant. They survived the Aaron Hernandez arrest. They endured the hype around Tim Tebow.

Tom Brady will miss up to the first 4 games of the regular season. Those are against the Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, and Cowboys. Two good teams, another that always plays the Patriots tough, and the Jaguars. Fortunately, only one game is against a divisional opponent, and only one game is against another contending AFC team. Unless Goodell suspends Brady for appealing his suspension (he already suspended him for not submitting his cell phone, so don't dismiss it), Brady should return to play the Colts on an extra-dramatic Sunday Night Football, then the Jets and Dolphins.

Obviously without Tom Brady those first 4 games will be tough. This team might find itself 1-3 or even 0-4 to start the season.

Then again, it's plausible (or shall I say "more probable than not") that the Patriots can manage to go 2-2 in those games. Going 3-1 is within the realm of possibilities. And although it's unlikely, a 4-0 start isn't out of the question.

So the Patriots could start the season 2-2, and then get even better by adding Tom Brady to their active roster. This team started the 2014 season 2-2. We all remember "We're on to Cincinnati." The Pats then won 13 of the next 15 games, and the Super Bowl.

So as far as the impact of this suspension goes, I don't think it's incredibly severe. And considering how the Patriots rally when they perceive the world to be against them, I think they are now more likely to win the Super Bowl then they had been before Goodell threw the book at Brady.

And if the Patriots do win the Super Bowl in a few months... I don't think I'll ever stop laughing.

Photo Credit:
USA Today/Sports Illustrated

2013 BBS Awards: Varitek Award for Most Overrated Athlete

This goes to the athlete whose actual production paled in comparison to the hype that surrounded him. It's named after Jason Varitek because in his later years, people gave him way too much credit for what he actually did on the field. This award shouldn't be looked on as a criticism of its recipient, but of the fans and media who praised him too much.

This year I can only think of one athlete who deserves this award. It's more because of the attention he got outweighing his contributions. It's Tim Tebow.

Tebow was the biggest story of the Patriots off-season up until Aaron Hernandez was arrested for murder. And as a former college teammate, Tebow managed to become part of that story too. He was the biggest draw at training camp. Tebow jerseys and shirts were everywhere.

He then struggled in the pre-season games. "Struggled" is actually a kind way to put it. He was awful. And nobody, except the most blindly faithful Tebowists out there, was shocked when the Patriots cut him.

And now he has a job at ESPN. And good for him. He seems like a nice guy. Especially in a sport that features murderers, rapists, wife-beaters, dog fighters, gangsters, and douchebags of all kinds.

And working at ESPN is perfect for him. He's already loved and adored by many people there. He's already smarter (and has a more accurate assessment of himself) than pundits like Skip Bayless.

Patriots Don't Take Leap of Faith With Tebow

The Tim Tebow era was over in New England before it began. There just wasn't any room on the Patriots' roster for a third pass-thrower who couldn't throw passes.

Speaking of leaps of faith, how about all those people who bought Tebow gear? All those t-shirts and jerseys will soon be half-price at the Pro Shop. People would have been wiser to have waited to see if he would make the team before they committed their cash. If cut, you can get the shirt at a bargain. If not, you can still deck yourself out in the jersey of a 3rd string QB.

I suppose being a Tebow fan does require tremendous faith. More faith than religion. Religious faith is the belief in something despite the absence of proof. Tebow faith is belief in something despite overwhelming evidence that it is incorrect. It's like having faith that the earth is flat. Or believing that the Theory of Evolution is wrong.

I don't mean to bash Tebow. He seems like a nice guy in a League populated with jerks, scumbags, and the occasional murderous sociopath. He just doesn't fit in the NFL, not as a person, not as a player.

When the Pats signed him I thought he could be a decent #2/#3 quarterback. After all, he's won games, even won a playoff game. You can do worse with your #3 QB. And I don't trust Ryan Mallett. Mallett is reckless. He just chucks the ball. He's Brett Favre, Jr. Mallett has a great arm, but Tebow seems to know how to win games.

I know now that Tebow is less likely to find work as a backup quarterback than he is to find it as a starter. Because as a backup putting him on the field requires the entire offense to change. He can't come into a game for an offensive series while trainers look at Brady. He can't play a quarter or a game if Brady gets a minor injury. Not without the offense changing everything about how it plays.

A backup QB is like a spare tire in the trunk of your car. A typical spare requires that you drive a little slower than usual. As a spare, Tebow is more like an oversized monster truck tire. The car won't function unless you change the 3 other tires on your car.

There are enough QB openings around the League for Tebow to find a job. And I wish him well. However, he seems to be falling victim to what happens to some Heisman winners. Sometimes what makes them great in college just doesn't fit in in the NFL game. See: Eric Crouch, Troy Smith, Matt Leinart, Doug Flutie, et cetera.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from the Patriots Preseason Opener

I'd like to extend a personal thanks to Italian filmmaker Sergio Leone for coming up with the title The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly for his 1966 Western starring Clint Eastwood and Eli Wallach. He has provided titles to sports stories (along with a format to break down games) for nearly 50 years. Molte grazie, Mr. Leone.

To the Patriots...

The Good:
The Patriots ran all over the Eagles. While LeGarrette Blount stole the show with 101 yards and 2 touchdowns, Steven Ridley's performance was more important for us to see. Ridley ended the 2012 season with a chilling concussion...

Before Gronk's surgeries, Welker's departure, and Hernandez's arrest, the status of Ridley's brain was a big off-season worry for the Pats.

Ridley ran the ball 8 times for 92 yards, most of that achieved in a 62-yard run on the first play from scrimmage. It was good to see Ridley running with confidence and running effectively.

This team will need to have a reliable running game. Not just consistent positive yardage and to keep defenses honest, but the ability to drive down field on the ground and occasionally run for 20+ yards. And having faith to run the ball on 3-4 yard short yardage situations. The Pats don't have a go-to receiver right now on those 3rd and 3 plays. They have to be able to convert some of those on the ground.

As a team the Pats ran for 248 yards. Not bad at all.

The new Patriots receivers also looked good when Brady was in the game. After an incomplete on his first pass, Brady threw 7 consecutive completions. Kenbrell Thompkins caught 4 of those passes, all shorter than 8 yards. Amendola caught a 6-yard pass, Aaron Dobson a 23 yarder. Shane Vereen's 13-yard TD catch was impressive. With a lack of quality WRs as well as no more Danny Woodhead, guys like Vereen will need to be a threat to catch passes.

Last year Vereen caught 8 passes for 149 yards and 6 first downs. Woodhead caught 40 passes for 446 yards and 22 first downs. Closing the gap between those statistical performances will help ease the pressure off the new receivers.

The Bad:
The secondary didn't look good when starters were in. However, Devin McCourty and Alfonzo Dennard did not play. That emphasizes how important they are to the secondary, and it also emphasizes how much of a drop off there is from the top 2 cornerbacks on this team and everyone else. Kyle Arrington can tread water as a #3 CB, but as a #1 or #2 he drowns. It's like taking a kid who can't swim from the shallow end of the pool to the deep end.

The Ugly:
Tim Tebow is not a quarterback on this team. He is a horrible thrower. He is woefully inaccurate. He takes too long to make a decision, and those decisions aren't good. His delivery is even slower than his progression. He can run (4 carries for 31 yards), but he is not a passer.

I do think Tebow will make this team, but be used as an element in trick plays, gimmick formations, and as a short yardage runningback. Then again, if Blount continues to do well, do you need another big runningback like Tebow taking up a roster spot?

So what we learned Friday night we kind of knew already: Brady is great. Ridley can run the ball. The secondary lacks depth. Tim Tebow can't throw.

Patriots host the Buccaneers Friday night, which should see more Brady and less Tebow. Or maybe more Tebow running and trying other things, and less Tebow passing.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Situations to Use Tim Tebow

Yesterday Tim Tebow arrived, and the difference in his arrival to New England compared to his arrival to New York demonstrates how different his role here will be. Last year Tebow had his own press conference when he was introduced as a member of the Jets. Yesterday he briefly spoke with the media, gave a stock "happy to be here" statement that I'm sure was prepared beforehand and given Belichick's blessing (pardon the religious pun). And let's also remember that Rex Ryan didn't seem to want Tebow on his team. I'm sure Belichick does, or he wouldn't be here.

I know it's a little weird to talk about a football player playing football, and not talk about media circuses and the Gospels, but let's try. Here are some situations in which Tim Tebow could be a good player to have on the field:

Punts:
The Jets used him as a protector on their punt team. It makes sense. Not only is he a big guy, but he's a threat for fakes. Both running and passing. Even if you don't fake, the opposing team must respect the possibility, and that might mean their return isn't as focused on blocking.

FG Holder:
Again, for the potential to fake.

Short Yardage/Goal Line:
You line Brady up under center. Brady's as good as it gets at the QB sneak. You also line Tebow up as a tailback. Or even a fullback with Ridley or Vereen as the tailback. So as Brady moves under center, if the sneak doesn't look like a good option, he can hand it off to Tebow. Or fake a handoff to Tebow and go play-action and throw it to Gronk or Hernandez. Or hand off to Ridley/Vereen and have Tebow block. Or have Tebow run in the opposite direction of the ball and fake out the defense. Tebow will draw attention when he's on the field.

Fullback:
The traditional fullback is an endangered species. Belichick has frequently used players from other positions to fill the role, from linebackers to tight-ends. There are very few times when this need arises, short-yardage is one of those times. So is running out the clock late in games (which the Patriots don't do in the traditional way).

There are times that require powerbacks and fullbacks. Vereen (205 pounds) is not a powerback. Ridley isn't much of one either (220 pounds). Tebow weighs 236. He's strong. He can be the fill-in fullback.

Tight-End:
This one seems far-fetched. The Patriots have Gronkowski and Ballard. Hernandez is kind of a slot guy, but still a tight-end. Tebow could be used as a 3rd tight-end, again in short yardage situations. I have no idea how well he can catch. You don't want a guy bobbling the ball when defenders are all around him, eager to snatch up a loose ball for an interception. I have to see Tebow's hands before wanting him to play any tight-end.

Trick Plays:
Josh McDaniels got a little too clever with his trick plays last year. He loved using Edelman in crazy reverses and option runs. I hope McDaniels doesn't get overly creative with Tebow trickery. There are moments for trick plays. Two-point conversions, for instance, are a great time to line up Tebow and Brady next to each other in shotgun formation and get weird.

So with Tebow, you fill up some of the lower slots on your depth-chart. #3 QB, #3/#4 RB, #3/#4 TE, and he holds, and he plays on the punt team, and he's in jumbo packages.

Does he put you over the top? No. And we don't even know how many, if any, of these tasks he'll be able to carry out. But there are potential roles he can play. He can be like Steve Buscemi or Paul Giamatti, parts of the supporting cast that are only in a few scenes and help add texture and depth to the movie. So just imagine Steve Buscemi, only with the paparazzi following of Kristen Stewart combined with Lindsay Lohan.

But didn't Ichiro have a huge media following when he played in Seattle? And did the Boston Sports Media worry as much over the media attention that Daisuke Matsuzaka was going to bring with him? I think we're witnessing the media overreacting to the impact that the media's overreacting will have on a team. This is the media's version of Inception.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

Patriots Sign Tim Tebow

Emotionally, I hate this. I am not a Tim Tebow fan. I don't hate him, I just don't have any reason to like him. I hate the mania that surrounds him. There's nothing I've seen from him that I like. I hate his fans, and that's not his fault, but I hate seeing his fans happy. And now their happiness coincides with my happiness as a Patriots fan.

From a strictly football perspective, it makes sense. It's not a major plus. It's a low-risk type of acquisition. As a #3 QB you have a guy with NFL experience, with athleticism, with playoff experience. His mechanics suck, his decision making is questionable, but as a #3 last resort, project QB, why not? What is there to lose?

And he is an athlete and can play in different spots, maybe as a goal-line runningback, maybe as a #4 tight-end, whatever.

All his on-field negatives as a passer are irrelevant because I don't think he'll see the field as a quarterback unless something awful has happened or the Patriots are up by 28 points with a minute left. And in other spots he'll see the field if he deserves it. Hopefully not in many trick situations, Josh McDaniels likes those too much in my opinion.

The Patriots drafted a rugby player once. They signed a track athlete. They're willing to give athletes a chance to earn a spot on the roster and on the field. They now have a #3 QB who might be able to find minor roles in other aspects of the game. Why not?

As far as the off-field negatives (in this day and age we consider someone with no criminal record to have off-field negatives), the whole "circus" that accompanies Tebow, I'm not too worried. There won't be any QB controversy between he and Brady. The media interns at Gillette Stadium will have to print more credentials for training camp. And the Patriots coaches and players will have more questions to answer without really answering. What team is better at defeating the media's attempts to excavate interesting stories and extract juicy quotes than the Patriots?

Bill Belichick vs. The Media. Who's the favorite in that battle?

This is a huge story for a #3 quarterback who might play special-teams and goal-line situations. This is a potential minor improvement to the Patriots roster with a player who has garnered far too much attention, praise, and hatred for who and what he has done. The Tim Tebow story is a feedback loop. The media is making a circus of it because it is a media circus. This is a story about a story.

If you're like me and emotionally upset about this, I'm going to quote The Book of Rob:

"This isn't the end of the world."
-Rob 3:16

Patriots-Jets Drinking Game

Here's a drinking game to play during Sunday evening's festivities. Every time certain words, phrases, or images are shown you have to drink a certain amount.

Anytime a commentator says...
"high-octane" or "no huddle" - 1 drink from a beer
"Oregon" or "Oklahoma" = 1 drink for the first mention, then 2 for the second, 3 for the third, and so on.
"Alfonzo Dennard" the wrong way (it's Duh-nard) = half a beer
Any press clipping about Mark Sanchez = 1 drink
Any press clipping about Tim Tebow = 3 drinks
"Tebow" = 1 drink
Talking about Tebow as a great human being = 1 drink
Anything to do with the number 666 = half a beer and a shot

Anytime this is on the screen...
Fall foliage = 1 shot and half a beer
Foliage from Vermont = the same as above plus a shot of maple syrup
Someone Tebowing = drink a beer for 6.66 seconds
Bob Kraft = 1 drink
Bob Kraft talking to someone = drink as long as he's talking
Bill Belichick pulling something from his sock = 1 drink
Bible verse = a shot for the number of the chapter, and drink from a beer for the number of seconds of the verse, so John 3:16 would be 3 shots and 16 seconds of beer
Any graphic or reference to Belichick as head coach of the Jets = a beer
Any clips from Hard Knocks = 1 drink

Anytime this happens...
Tom Brady yells "alpha milk" = 1 drink
Patriots get a rushing first down = 1 drink
Patriots allow a passing first down = 1 drink
Devin McCourty gets beat on a pass = 1 drink (even if it's incomplete)
Devin McCourty interception = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork tipped pass = 1 drink
Vince Wilfork recovers turnover = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork returns turnover for TD = 1 shot, 1 beer, 1 turkey wing
Rex Ryan is bleeped out or says something that'd be bleeped out = 1 drink
Wes Welker mentioning feet (even in a past video) = 1 drink
Gronk spikes the ball = 1 drink
Gronk doesn't spike after TD = 1 whole beer
Kickoff touchback = 1 drink
Kickoff return = drink until the return is over
Whenever Stevan Ridley or Aaron Hernandez carry the ball without properly securing it = 1 drink

Pats Draft Rugby Player

The Patriots didn't have any 4th or 5th round picks. In the 6th, they took Nate Ebner, who didn't even play football in high school. He played rugby. And he walked on to the Ohio State football team and became a special teams specialist. He was drafted as a safety but only played three snaps at that position his senior year.

Ebner's true position is a special teams psycho. He claims to enjoy the "mayhem" of kickoff coverage most of all.

Rugby players are crazy.

In the 6th round, the odds are slim of drafting a guy who will make an impact in one of the 22 regular positions. So why not draft an insane rugby player and put him on special teams? You're much more likely to get a positive contribution from him than from a 6th round RB or offensive tackle.

And maybe if the Dolphins try to get clever with some sort of Wildcat 2.0 formation, or if the Jets use Tebow in the option, Ebner can use his rugby experience to counter that. Especially the option, which is very similar to rugby plays.

T-E-B-O-W TO JETS JETS JETS

Tim Tebow is going to the New York Jets. The Jets traded a 4th round pick to acquire the Denver QB. And I can't stop giggling.

The idea of Tim Tebow's religiously laced pep talks intertwined with Rex Ryan's overuse of profanity makes me wish the Jets were back on Hard Knocks. America's new odd couple. And they're in the New York market. How perfectly hilarious is that?

Will Tebow replace Sanchez? I don't know. We all know (thanks to the hyper-vocal Jets' lockerroom) that some of the Jets players question their QB. And as a Patriots fan, I really don't care if the Jets' crappy, overrated QB is Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow. Neither one is very good.

A 4th round pick is not an expensive price to pay, though. And on the field the Jets have improved. They can utilize Tebow's athleticism in gadget plays and short yardage. But it still makes me giggle. Tim Tebow, in that locker room, with the likes of Antonio "Father of the year" Cromartie. Talk about a saint among sinners.


*****UPDATE*****
There are reports that the deal for Tebow also includes 6th and 7th round picks.

Tim Tebow Will Not Become a Patriot

It amazes me that people still don't get it. Every time a "versatile" player like Tim Tebow or Pat White becomes available, there are always murmurs and whispers that he'll wind up with the Patriots. "They love versatile players in New England."

It's true that Belichick and the Patriots do value players who can play multiple positions. What morons inside and outside of 495 fail to understand is that those "versatile" players must still be good at one primary position. Mike Vrabel, for instance, was not acquired for his pass-catching skills. He was a very good linebacker. So the Patriots acquired him to play linebacker. The 12 TD catches were a welcome bonus, but if he couldn't carry his weight on defense, he wouldn't have made the team.

Vrabel wasn't acquired for his versatility. He was acquired to play linebacker, and the Patriots took advantage of his ability to catch the ball.

Tim Tebow doesn't have the ability to start at any position for the Patriots. Even if you don't think he's a lousy quarterback (which he is), the Patriots are all set at that position. And at tight-end. And at wide receiver. What would Tebow's primary function be?

The closest player to Tim Tebow on the Patriots' roster is Julian Edelman. Edelman was a running QB in college, and was then converted to a receiver, and was then converted to a DB. Morons might argue that he's a guy that doesn't have a primary function on the team, he's just a versatile athlete that can contribute in multiple ways. Sort of like Tebow. Only Tebow is more athletic.

That's all true, but Edelman was acquired with a 7th round draft pick. His cap number is $635,295. I'm sure the Patriots would jump at the opportunity to get Tebow if they only needed a 7th round pick to trade for him and could pay him under $700k. Tebow's cap number is $2.7 million. And I think the Broncos will ask for more than a 7th rounder.

That's a lot to pay for a bench player that comes in for trick plays. Too much. Belichick could find ways to use Tebow's abilities, but not for that price.

Tebow is one hell of an athlete, but versatility alone doesn't get you a spot on the Patriots' roster. Players need to have a primary function on the team. And their value needs to exceed their cost.

That is why, thankfully, Tim Tebow will not be playing his home games in Foxborough.

Peyton Manning Taking His Talents to the Rocky Mountains

The Broncos acquiring Peyton Manning makes an absurd amount of sense for both parties. John Elway and the Broncos front office know that Tebow was actually one of their team's biggest weaknesses. They've always harbored doubts, even in the midst of Tebowmania. Manning gives the Broncos a legit QB, and nobody can argue that this isn't an improvement over Tebow. So the public outcry won't be overwhelming. And for Peyton, he stays in the AFC, and is on a playoff team. A team that actually won in the playoffs.

Not even the Archbishop of the Church of Tebow can argue that this isn't an improvement for the Broncos. Tebow, for as many games as he won for the Broncos, was also a prime culprit in their losses. He couldn't consistently drive the ball down the field and score. He couldn't even consistently get 1st downs. When the defense was able to give him a chance late in games, Tebow could win. But that winning was dependent on the defense. He could finish a victory started by his teammates. He wasn't, however, good enough to initiate victory.

Peyton is. At least he has been in the past. For every Tebowist who spouts "All Tebow does is win," Mr. Manning has about 140 more wins than Mr. Tebow. Manning has won games for team's with horrible defenses. He can survive in an offensive shootout. In fact he thrives in them.

Denver can provide Manning with a good offensive line. Not only does that protect Manning, it allows him to go through his progressions and find the open man. He is a great enough QB to turn mediocre receivers into good ones, good receivers into great ones, and great receivers into Hall of Famers. So I wouldn't worry about Denver's lack of household name WRs. He'll be on a playoff team in a soft division. He has some raw material to work with in Denver. There is plenty of room for improvement, but he's quite capable of improving it.

What do the Broncos do with Tebow? Manning certainly isn't the long-term solution at quarterback, and nobody is absolutely 100% certain if Manning can play, let alone play well. The Broncos could keep Tebow as insurance/QB-of-the-future. They could also trade him. Which makes this acquisition even smarter for them. How many teams dramatically improve themselves AND acquire additional draft picks with one move?

The NFL's schedules aren't set yet, but in addition to playing their AFC West rivals, the Broncos will host Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. They'll travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, Atlanta, and Carolina.

Not an easy schedule.

Heisman Meets Shakespeare

Disclaimer: this post contains numerous references to the works of William Shakespeare. If unfamiliar with said works, you will not get the jokes. And I really don't care that you don't get them.

Yes, that's Eddie George playing Julius Caesar. The Heisman winner and former Tennessee Titan is appearing as the title character in the Nashville Shakespeare Festival's production of Julius Caesar. I have to say it's a pretty smart move for the production. Good or bad, having Eddie George on the stage will sell tickets and create a buzz. And Eddie George seems like the type that would enjoy the unique experience.

Eddie George's post-NFL career has been busy and positive, which is refreshing. He's opened restaurants in Nashville, and Columbus, OH. He's all over television with appearances on reality shows and his own show on the Big Ten Network. And he's earned his MBA at Northwestern.

But his latest endeavor sparked a thought in my mind. What other Heisman winners could play characters from Shakespeare?

Doug Flutie would be a good Puck, a diminutive elf always up to mischief. Eric Crouch's confused indecision could make him a decent Hamlet. "To play safety for the Rams or not to play safety for the Rams?" Shylock's greed would suit Reggie Bush. Ricky Williams' decadence makes him a perfect John Falstaff. The religious Tim Tebow could play Angelo from Measure for Measure. I can't decide if OJ Simpson would be better as Othello or Brutus. Either way, I'm sure he'd give a killer performance.

Pats Fans in Heaven

I tried finding an appropriate 3:63 Bible verse (Brady threw for 363 yards), and the best I could find was: Look at them! Sitting or standing, they mock me in their songs. (Lamentations 3:63). And maybe that can be about how much hype Tim Tebow got leading up to this game, and how much people forgot that Tom Brady is a pretty good QB.

All season, the Patriots have won and lost based on the performance of their offense. Their defense isn't good enough to win games when Brady struggles or turns the ball over. On the other hand, the offense is potent enough to win games on its own, even when the defense is terrible. Saturday night, the offense was at its best.

Brady was nearly perfect. His one interception was the only blemish on his performance. 5 touchdowns in the first half, 6 overall. He completed over 3/4 of his passes. He had fewer incompletions (8) than Tebow had completions (9).

One amazing stat struck me. The Patriots were 3 of 6 on 3rd down. What amazes me is that the Patriots got to 3rd down only 6 times. They got 31 first downs. That means that 25 times they didn't even get to 3rd down before getting a new 1st down (they got 3 1st downs from penalties). In other words, even if the Pats had been playing with CFL rules and only getting 3 downs per series, they'd have still moved the chains with regularity.

The line protected Brady all night. 0 sacks. That was a huge reason for Brady's monster stats. When Brady did have some pressure on him, he wasn't able to fully step into his throws, and that's the only time the Patriots' drives sputtered and stalled. For the most part, though, the line gave him time to find open receivers, and space to step into throws.

If not for Brady, Aaron Hernandez would have been the clear star of the game. He caught 4 passes for 55 yards and a TD. He ran for 61 yards. And he had a tackle. That's a diverse night. He left the game early but all reports say that he's alright.

Using him as a runningback was ingenious in its simplicity. When an opponent sees no RBs in the Patriots' huddle, they might go with a lighter personnel package with more DBs, and fewer big guys up front. Then Hernandez lines up in the backfield and the Pats run the ball against a defense designed to stop the pass. So simple, which is why it's so smart.

Hernandez did lose a handle on the ball twice, which makes me nervous. He juggled an exchange from Brady, and lost a ball after being downed by contact. His ball control isn't 100%. He's not Tiki Barber in the early 2000s, but it's something to note.

Gronkowski should endorse a line of vacuum cleaners. Everything that enters his airspace gets sucked in. Bibi Jones can be in the commercials with him for similar reasons.

The defense did well. The only touchdown they allowed came when the Broncos got the ball on the Pats' 24. But let's not compare this unit to 2003 and 2004. The Patriots' offense shot out to a big lead, and the Broncos have one of the worst passers in the NFL. When down by two touchdowns, simply not throwing interceptions isn't good enough.

How do you stop Tebow from his miraculous 4th quarter comebackes? You start the 4th quarter with a 42-10 lead.

The Patriots demonstrated why the option is not a viable NFL offense. Defenses are too fast for the backs to turn the corner. And they're too disciplined and coached too well to make mistakes. They know their assignments and containments.

The Pats' D-line got excellent penetration up the middle, as well as even pressure on each flank. That prevented Tebow from rolling out, which is when he's most dangerous. It also meant that when the Broncos ran the option, they couldn't cut back because Wilfork was already through the line and chasing the play from behind. Tebow was sacked 5 times, the Pats had 10 tackles for a loss, plus that 1st quarter strip-sack.

The effect of negative plays is always harsh on an offense. But on an offense that struggles to move the ball as much as Denver's, negative plays are murder.

The Pats played much better than they've played in their past two postseasons. There were no fake punts. In fact the Patriots' special teams executed very well. There were a few mistakes, but they were quickly atoned for.

Nobody's perfect. But Brady came pretty close.

The Pats face the Ravens next week. The other two offensive juggernauts - the Saints and Packers - are out. The Pats are unique among the NFL's final four. Which means either that they're the best of the offense-heavy teams, or were fortunate to play the Denver Broncos.

How weird is this? The Pats are in the AFC Championship and they still haven't beaten a team with a winning record.

Pats vs. Ravens, Sunday afternoon at 3. I'm excited. Let's party.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

Patriots/Broncos Preview

I finally figured out why Tebow is such a big story. He was an underdog, who already had believers/fans before he started "beating the odds." So he has the appeal of an underdog, but already had legions of supporters. Which is abnormal. Most underdogs come from nowhere with no fans. Anyway, that's my short explanation of the Tebow phenomenon, at least the core of it.

To the actual game, which I know is a weird thing to talk about this week.

The Patriots saw what Tebow did the Steelers on Sunday. Rather, they saw what the Steelers' defense let Tebow do to them. They will not let that happen again. They're not going to give Tebow man coverage on deep routes. They're not going to bring safeties up to the line. They're going to give the Broncos 6-12 yard curls, as they've given to every team this year. And Tebow will hit some. He might even hit a few in a row. But it'll be tough for him to repeatedly move up and down the field with just these intermediate passes. He's not consistently accurate enough.

And while the Patriots' defense has allowed 4,703 passing yards (2nd worst), they've "only" allowed 26 passing touchdowns (10th worst). They don't allow many big passing plays. Their longest allowed was a 58 yarder. They keep the ball in front of them. The Pats' defense also improves in the Red Zone. The Broncos' offense actually got worse in the Red Zone last week.

Denver can run the ball well. And Tebow typically doesn't turn it over. So the Patriots have to pressure them to score, to keep up.

That's why the Patriots offense will determine this game. If they can protect Brady, if the receivers and tight-ends can get separation, and if Brady does his job, then the Patriots win. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but this is a 13-3 team against an 8-8 team. A 13-3 team that beat the same 8-8 team on the road, and now they're at home. If the Pats execute, they win.

What will the Pats offense try to do? Hernandez had a great game back in Denver. Look for he, Branch, and occasionally Ochocinco to be cutting across the deeper parts of Denver's defense. And ideally, that will create space underneath for Welker, even some passes RBs. Denver's defense has a few talented pieces, and a few not so talented pieces. The Patriots will use their extensive arsenal of weapons to get the matchups they want.

Denver's only hope on defense is to pressure Brady.

So the Pats' keys to victory will be:

#1:Protect Brady

#2: Be yourselves on offense

#3: Prevent the big plays on defense

I think they'll do all these. It'll be a close game at first, with the Pats pulling away in the second half. Patriots 38, Broncos 24.

Tebow's Coming to Foxborough

The Broncos beat a depleted Steelers team last night in dramatic fashion. The first ever overtime of "each team gets a possession, unless..." ended with the unless part coming true. And now the 4th seeded 8-8 Broncos are coming to Foxborough to play Saturday night.

This is the best possible matchup for the Patriots. And while we shouldn't underestimate Denver, and the Pats obviously have to execute in order to win this game, the Broncos are who they are. They lost 8 games. They backed into the playoffs. They were thoroughly beaten when the Pats went to Denver.

I do have to say that the Broncos' offensive scheme has improved. They're getting better at putting Tebow in no-decision situations. Like throwing deep. He doesn't have to worry about finding the open man or going through progressions. The decision has already been made for him by the structure of the play.

Another interesting storyline of this game is that Josh McDaniels, the man who drafted Tebow as head coach of the Broncos, will be working for the Patriots as a newly hired offensive assistant.

It's almost worth the endless, insufferable Tebow ball-washing that will be all over ESPN this week.

Varitek Award for Most Overrated Player of the Year

This goes to the Boston athlete that was praised just a bit too much. Maybe they were good, but folks here thought they were all-time great. Although this year I'm making an exception for an athlete playing outside of Boston.

The winner is...

Tim Tebow

The Tim Tebow story was probably the second biggest sports story behind Joe Paterno and the Penn State molestation scandal. You couldn't just be a casual fan of Tebow without turning into a Tebow defender. You couldn't just think he was overrated without turning into a hater.

The conversations became religious in nature, as if Tebow were a prophet or saint. His fans didn't just like him, they "believed" in him. You could show them stats, talk about how well Denver's defense was playing, and all they'd respond with was "he just wins."

Not anymore. He just sucks.

Who Do You Want the Patriots to Face?

If Belichick were asked this question, I think he'd say something like "We'll face who we have to face. Whoever it will be will be a good football team. Tom Brady is our quarterback." And that's sensible. But it's hard to passively watch this weekend's Wild Card round without thinking about who you'd prefer the Pats to face on the 14th.

Here are the scenarios:

If Cincinnati beats Houston, then the Patriots face Cincinnati. No matter what else happens.

If Houston beats Cincinnati, the Patriots face the winner of the Denver/Pittsburgh game.

So of the three, who is the best matchup for the Pats?

The answer is Denver. The Broncos are the only AFC playoff team that the Patriots beat. They're also, without much doubt, the worst team in the AFC playoffs. A token 8-8 AFC West team. And they don't matchup well with the Pats.

The Patriots defense can't defend against the pass. The Broncos can't pass the ball. So while the Broncos would be able to run around and accumulate yardage, they wouldn't be able to make significant gains in the air. They'd put up a few points, but it's tough to consistently drive the ball 80 yards and score with just a running game.

Simply put, Denver's biggest offensive weakness makes the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness a non-factor. So then it's a great New England offense facing an inconsistent and exploitable Denver defense. I'll take Brady in that bout.

Unfortunately, the Broncos are so bad that it's unlikely they'll survive against the Steelers. So would you rather see the Pats play Pittsburgh or Cincinnati?

It's easy to answer with Cincinnati. After all, the Steelers beat the Pats. The Bengals are 9-7. We don't see them very often, don't know much about them and, well, they're the Bengals.

They were 0-7 against playoff teams, 9-0 against non-playoff teams. Andy Dalton might not be an MVP candidate, but I'm sure the Pats' secondary can make him look like one. How well would their defense do against Brady? That's the key question.

They had 45 sacks. They have a few guys who can get to the QB. Their passing defense was 9th in the NFL. They only allowed 211.6 yards per game. So they could give trouble to the Patriots' offense.

Still, they can turn the ball over. Andy Dalton is not a proven commodity. I think Brady can beat their defense for enough points to win.

So I'd love to see Tebow and the Broncos come to Foxborough. Failing that, I'd prefer Cincinnati over Pittsburgh. But not by much.

The Pats lost 25-17 in Pittsburgh in October. Ironically, it was perhaps the Pats' defense best game as they repeatedly stood firm in the Red Zone, keeping the Patriots in the game. The Steelers defense didn't let Brady move the ball at all. The Pats had a mere 213 yards of offense. Brady was sacked 3 times and frequently hurried. The Pats were 3/10 on 3rd downs and only made 2 trips to the Red Zone. Pittsburgh dominated time of possession nearly 2 to 1.

Of the three possibilities, Pittsburgh is the least favorable matchup for the Patriots.

But it's still favorable. Roethlisberger has been banged and beaten around all year. The Steelers don't have Mendenhall. And I don't think Brady and the offense played up to their potential when they lost down in Pittsburgh.

No matter what, the Patriots have to execute. No matter who they play, they'll be facing a team that has already won a playoff game.

Tebow is Human, Brady is Superhuman

Before a big game, it's very rare that Tom Brady is in the shadows of an opposing QB. Tebow got the talk, the praise, and the hype. And I think people kind of forgot that Patriot games are typically decided by how well Brady's offense does against the opposing defense. After all, this is an 11 win team, despite having one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Brady completed passes to 8 different receivers, but he favored the tight-ends. Hernandez had a monstrous day, 129 yards on 9 catches, plus a TD. Gronkowski had a quiet day, at least for him, with only 4 catches. Wide receivers only accounted for 12 of Brady's 33 targets.

I'm kind of worried about this tendency if Branch gets hurt. Or even worse, if they lost Welker. Ochocinco did catch a touchdown, he did make some key blocks, but he and Brady aren't only on different pages, they're reading different books in different languages. When Brady wants him to go deep, he cuts. There's no on-field chemistry.

The Patriots offense moved the ball, scored often, and didn't turn it over. That's a big reason why the Pats won. If you can't stop Brady and the boys, I don't care how magical you think your QB is, it's going to be a rough day for you.

Looking at Tebow's performance, and two things come to mind:

#1: He had a better day as a QB than he usually does. 11/22, 194 yards, and some of those incompletions were to avoid getting sacked. This speaks to how exploitable the Patriots defense is.

#2: He had a worse day than most QBs have against the Pats. 194 yards, an 80.5 rating. Last week Grossman had a 92.2 rating against the Patriots. Orlovsky had a 113.2 rating. The Pats average over 300 passing yards allowed per game. If a guy can't throw for 300 on this defense, they're simply not that good.

The Broncos did run the ball with alarming effectiveness. Their line created huge holes, and it was frightening how well Denver rushed.

Tebow ran for 93 yards. Of course, that doesn't factor in the 53 yards he lost when getting sacked.

As a team, Denver ran for 252, and averaged 8.1 a carry.

However, if you want to try to win a game on the ground, you'd better avoid putting the football on the ground. That's where this game was ultimately decided. The Patriots did not turn the ball over. The Broncos lost 3 fumbles. There's nothing mythical or magical about it. It's football.

Anyway, the Patriots are 11-3, and they've clinched their 9th AFC East title in the Belichick-Brady era. I know that we won't be having a duckboat parade for a divisional title, but these used to be rare up here. This franchise had only made 10 playoff appearances (only 5 of those were divisional wins) before Brady and Belichick. And in 11 years, that number has nearly doubled.

This has been something special up here in New England. It's still going strong after 11 years.

Pats host the Dolphins at 1PM Saturday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

The Cult of Tim Tebow

Every discussion about Tim Tebow seems to turn religious. I'm not referring to his own religious beliefs or how he expresses them. I have no problem with that stuff. I'm talking about Tebow himself. He's become a mythic figure, a gridiron demigod. He doesn't have fans, he has "followers." Those followers aren't just rooting for him, they "believe in" him. They believe in him because he doesn't just play well in the clutch, he performs "miracles." And if you don't like him or think he's overrated, then you're a "doubter."

I have never seen anything like it. The debates and discussions on ESPN, on sportsradio, on the internet, they all do remind me of something actually. Arguments between science and religion. Atheists try to explain away God with logic (which is foolish, by the way, it's like trying to discuss history with math equations, it's two unrelated languages trying to have a conversation), and fundamentalists try to dismiss logic with faith (equally as foolish). What happens is polarization.

I've heard Tim Tebow called a "polarising figure" but he's just a quarterback. We're the ones doing the polarizing. His disciples gush on and on about him. In response, his doubters (dubbed "haters" because I guess you can't just root against someone in sports anymore) spew statistics. The disciples respond with his 7-1 record. The doubters attribute that record to his defense and a bit of luck. The cycle continues ad infinitum, escalating unchecked.

For the record, I'm a Tim Tebow agnostic. In other words, I'm not sure if he's that good. He's better than Kyle Orton, but who isn't? He doesn't turn the ball over much, and he's performed well in come-from-behind situations, but he's had to come from behind because he sucks for 3 quarters. His defense has kept him in games (15.6 points allowed per game in their last 5 wins), and they've played bad teams that also make huge mistakes (See: Marion Barber).

Actually, I'm a Tim Tebow Jew. I believe that he exists, he's a man, he's not a bad player, but he's not the Messiah. He doesn't perform miracles. He's not supernatural. He's just a football player.

It's hard to stay in the middle of the road with Tebow. Everywhere you look, you're confronted with his fanatic believers and his equally fanatic haters. And it's annoying to hear about how great a player is when he's not great. It's annoying that you can't try to discuss him logically without being bombarded by one-step logic and emotionalism. "He just wins." Really? I thought the team did? Especially when they have to carry their QB until the final round.

The story itself has become a story. It's self-perpetuating. Each column about Tim Tebow spawns two more about the story of Tim Tebow. for example: Tim Tebow Quarterbacks New Young Chrisitan Faith. Debunking the Myths of Tim Tebow. This blog post is a perfect example. The story is no longer about a football player. The story is about the story of a football player.

And we're not discussing this football player in football terms. I keep hearing about how much of an underdog Tebow was, how nobody believed in him. Nobody believed him? He won the frigging Heisman! He was drafted 25th! He's been a highly touted player at every level from high school through college. He hasn't come out of the woodwork. He's 6' 3" and 236 pounds, hardly a small, scrappy, overlooked guy. Can we dispense with the underdog talk?

And the doubters are correct. He has not been a good NFL quarterback, at least not for most of the games he's played. You can argue that he's "a winner," but he succeeds despite sucking 75% of the time. He runs around too much, his mechanics are awful, his throws are hideously inaccurate. His 4th quarter stats are impressive. He has a 111.0 rating in the 4th. But he still has an 83.5 rating in the 3rd, a 50.3 rating in the 2nd, and a 64.0 rating in the 1st.

I've heard some argue that the 4th quarter is what matters most. That's true, I suppose. Unless the deficit is too large to overcome. What's the point of having a good 4th quarter if the opponent won the game by scoring in the other three while you were struggling to get first downs?

That's what happened for Denver against Detroit. The Lions were up 24-3 at halftime, 38-3 going into the 4th quarter. Tebow had a TD drive in that 4th quarter, rushing for 26, throwing 4/6 for 39 yards and the score. More Tebow 4th quarter magic. It made it a 45-10 game.

He's usually clutch though. That's indisputable. And he has his teammates believing that they can win. That's significant and that's a big part of winning. But that's as far as my praise will go. He needs his defensive teammates believing in him, becuase they're the ones who keep the Broncos in the game until Tebow stops sucking.

I'm a logical man, at least I try to be. I'm also capable of leaps of faith, but not when there's explicit evidence to the contrary. Tim Tebow is extremely overrated, overpraised, and overhyped. He's exciting in the 4th quarter, but the defense puts him in a position to play a relevant 4th quarter. He is 7-1, but the "winner" label is reserved for people who have started more than 8 games.

He's not the first QB to be hyped. Brady was a media darling in 2001. Roethlisberger was a huge story in 2004. Tony Romo in 2006, Mark Sanchez in 2009. Brady and Ben are still great. Sanchez isn't. Romo is somewhere in between. I seem to recall Kyle Orton being hyped when he started 6-0 with the Broncos in '09. But with Tebow, everything is amplified. His disciples fiercely defend him like a religious icon. They're not fans. They're zealots. You're attacking their faith when you call him "overrated" or point out that he's not good for 3/4 of a game. It's sacrilegious to speak anything but praise unto Tebow.

I don't hate Tim Tebow. I've never met him. If it weren't for the media hype, and for his legions of loud and delusional fans, I'd feel as indifferent toward him as I feel toward Tyler Palko. When I watch football, I try to keep things in perspective. He's a player. Because of his hype (and because of his opponent) I'm rooting against him on Sunday. I'll continue rooting against him all year. Because I'm tired of the story. I'm tired of the Cult of Tebow. I want their sacred cow to be smashed. He's just a man.

The Broncos Have More Than Tebow

This post will not mention the quarterback of the Denver Broncos. I will talk about him separately later today. This post is about a talented football team, that's playing well, even though we only hear about the quarterback. Who actually isn't playing well. But again, let's save that discussion for later.

As a Patriots fan, this game worries me. The Pats have a poor history against Denver. Tom Brady has a poor history against Denver. He's 1-6 against the Broncos, including his first ever playoff loss. He's thrown 11 TDs and 7 INTs against them. He doesn't even throw to Champ Bailey's side of the field.

Speaking of Bailey, there's some serious talent on the defensive side of the ball out there. Von Miller has 11.5 sacks, Elvis Dumervil has 7.5. They've also got Brian Dawkins and Andrew Goodman. They can cover receivers, and can pressure the QB.

Statistically, their defense isn't overly impressive. But in their current 7-1 stretch, they've allowed 20.3 points per game, and in their last 5 games it's been 15.6 per game.

Before their hot streak started, they were 1-4, but it's not like they were getting crushed. Apart from a 49-23 loss to undefeated Green Bay, they lost to Oakland by 3, to Tennessee by 3, and to San Diego by 5. So they were close to winning. They just needed to dump Orton, who threw 7 picks in those games.

They can run the ball. With their runningback and quarterback. They're the only team with over 2,000 yards on the ground. McGahee has 920 of them. They have only 60 fewer rushing yards than passing yards as a team.

This team seems to match up decently with the Patriots. I think that Brady and the offense will struggle to have a great game. I think the Broncos can rush the ball and eat the clock.

I'm not too worried about the Broncos' quarterback. To be blunt, almost any QB on the planet scares me in a two-minute drill against the Patriots' defense. What concerns me about Denver is their potentially stifling defense, and their ability to run the ball. They're a good all around team, even though we only hear about one of their players.