How the Patriots could lose to the Colts

I'm feeling confident that the Patriots will beat the Colts on Sunday. And why not? They demolished Indy 42-20 a few weeks ago. The Colts beat a soft Cincinnati team and the crippled Broncos to get here. The Patriots' biggest weakness is protecting against a pass rush, and Indy doesn't have much of one. I could go on and on.

It seems impossible for the Patriots to lose.

Which is one reason it is possible. This Patriots team seems to play its best when they're doubted, not exalted. When people were asking Belichick if he was going to evaluate the quarterback position, this team annihilated the Bengals. When they were underdogs on the road in Indy, they threw the Colts around like ragdolls.

Yet when everyone expected them to beat the Dolphins in Week 1, they were embarrassed. When everyone expected them to crush the Jets in October and December, they won by 2 points, then by 1.

Combine overconfidence with a quality opponent like the Colts, and you get a recipe for disappointment.

I'm also worried about Bryan Stork's potential absence. The commonly held belief around town is that he won't be sorely missed because Indy doesn't have a formidable pass rush. So Stork's absence is being ignored. It shouldn't be.

The Pats dominated Indy 42-20 because the offensive line dominated Indy. With the loss of Stork, that decisive advantage becomes less decisive. In other words, the Patriots won so convincingly in November because of 5 offensive linemen. Those guys were the reasons they won. And one of the most pivotal of them will probably be on the sidelines Sunday. It's never good to lose one of the reasons you win.

I'm also concerned that the Colts will be able to go to the outside against the Patriots' defense. The Ravens did that with success last week, stretching the Pats with both running and passing plays.

Finally, the biggest reason the Patriots could lose to the Colts is if they beat themselves. And that's not very far-fetched. We've seen this team shoot themselves in the foot in big playoff games before. Welker's drops, Brady's intentional grounding in the Super Bowl, Chung's fake punt, the interception before halftime last week.

Then there's Josh "that's just what they'll be expecting us to do" McDaniels. The Patriots started the Ravens game with Brady under center, and with some handoffs. When they should have been throwing the ball out of the gun. The Colts struggle against the run, so maybe McDaniels will start with Brady in the gun and 5 WRs.

The Patriots should win. I think they will win. But you have to play to win. You have to show up and do your job.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 24

We're on to worrying about Baltimore

Baltimore. The Ravens. Dark wings, dark thoughts. Painful memories...

January 10, 2010 (which will be 5 years ago to the day on Saturday), Ray Rice abusing the Patriots like they were engaged to him, the Ravens scoring 24 in the 1st quarter, Brady throwing 3 picks.

January 20, 2013, the last meaningful game the Patriots lost at Gillette Stadium. Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith taking advantage of Aqib Talib's injury. Joe Flacco throwing 3 TDs while Brady had a QB rating of 62.3.

Even January 22, 2012, when only a missed field goal prevented the game from going into overtime.

So yeah, there are reasons to not be thrilled to face the Ravens. Even though they're the 6th seed. Even though they were 6-6 this season against non-NFC South teams.

Joe Flacco's postseason resume is another cause for concern. Of the other AFC playoff QBs, only he and Roethlisberger have a fearsome playoff pedigree. Flacco is also a proven winner at Gillette. Hell, he's been significantly better than Brady in playoff games in Foxborough the last 5 years.

Psychological scars and matchup issues aside, if you can't beat the #6 seed, at home, then you don't deserve to win a Super Bowl. It's as simple as that. So while this is a relatively tough opponent for the Patriots to face, this is football, this is winter, it's supposed to be tough. It was tough in 2001 facing the Raiders, Steelers, and Rams. It was tough in 2003 and 2004 facing the Colts, Titans, and Eagles.

So let's move on from the past and focus on Saturday's game.

I'm going to be short and sweet in my analysis. The Patriots need to avoid the three Fs:

Fucking around
Fucking up
Fumbling (and throwing fucking picks)

The Pats can't play mediocre football for a half or 3 quarters, then hope to put it all together at the end. The clock in a playoff game moves unbelievably fast when you're playing from behind. So no fucking around, no waiting until after halftime to play your best.

Another thing the Pats can't fuck around with is play calling. Baltimore isn't good at defending the pass and were 4th best defending the run. So yes, Josh McDaniels, the Ravens will be expecting you to throw the ball. And that's okay. It's okay to do what they expect, because the reason they expect it is because they're not good at stopping it.

When Josh McDaniels was a young child, I bet he poured sugar on slugs, because he figured the slugs expected salt.

No fucking up starts with not letting Tom Brady get killed. Don't run plays that require Brady to sit in the pocket for 30 seconds while a receiver makes a double move or a crossing route develops. Short quick passes will keep Brady on his feet. Not doing so would be a colossal fuck up.

No Wes Welker style drops. No missed field goals. No botched snaps. No Patrick Chung fake punts. No blown coverages or missed tackles that result in 40 yard gains. No unnecessary penalties.

Last but certainly not least, protecting the football is of paramount importance, more than in most games. In the three recent playoff games against Baltimore, the Pats turned the ball over 10 times. Baltimore only turned it over 3 times. The Pats don't need to win the turnover battle to win the game. But if they don't lose the turnover stat, then it will be nearly impossible for the Ravens to win the game.

As physical and tough as the Ravens are, as well as Flacco has played in Foxborough, this is still the Patriots' game to lose. If they avoid getting cute, play a full 60 minutes, don't make massive mistakes, and keep the ball in their hands, they should win.

My prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 17

Photo Credit:
Don Wright/Associated Press

Ugly, ugly, ugly

That was one of the ugliest Patriots games we've seen this side of Pete Carroll. Toward the end of the game, Jon Gruden used the "not running on all cylinders" metaphor to describe the Patriots. I'll take that metaphor a few steps further. The Patriots have a V6 running on 2 cylinders, they have a flat tire, the airbag doesn't work, the brakes are worn, the suspension is shot, the turn signals have shorted out, only one headlight comes on and only as a high beam, the seats are stained, there's a weird smell, and the trunk doesn't open without a crowbar.

The offensive line sucks. Exacerbating the problem is an unwillingness by Belichick, McDaniels, and Brady to accept and adjust to this reality. The plays are forced. The throws are forced. Brady throws into coverage. He throws to the same two guys. He ignores or doesn't see open receivers.

The Patriots are not running the right plays for their offense. Julian Edelman, a 5' 10" receiver, is being used as a downfield threat. The Pats run the ball with tomfoolery and trickery, instead of just attacking their opponent. Routes take too long to develop. Brady doesn't throw to anyone but Edelman and Gronkowski. He doesn't even seem to consider throwing to anyone else.

The Patriots dressed 3 WRs Monday Night, then used the run only sparingly. What the hell is the logic behind that?

I know Brady is uncomfortable in the pocket. In the past, we've mocked Peyton Manning for crumbling under such pressure. We focused on him, and made fun of him for letting the pressure get to him. So do we laugh and point at Manning for those collapses, then defend Brady for making bad decisions and making bad throws?

The line sucks. Brady has also sucked.

Both sides of the ball need to be simpler. Bring it back to basics. Be primal and ATTACK. Don't think, just go after the ball, after the opponent, after the yards. Instead the offense runs sweep plays to the outside on 3rd and 2. Instead, Darrelle Revis is playing off to prevent big plays.

I don't know what this team is trying to do on either side of the ball. They seem to base their offense on what the opponent does. Their gameplan is reactionary, not proactive.

The sky isn't falling though, all you Chicken Littles out there. This was an awful night. A painful night. To borrow a quote from the movie Wall Street: "We sure went down the toilet on that ugly bitch." Thankfully it was just one night. Hopefully it's rock bottom, and not a sign of things to come.

Right now the Patriots have to work to make this game an aberration. If the Patriots can improve, in the numerous areas they need improvement, then this game becomes just one game. But if something isn't done, in a number of areas, then this game becomes something defining.

The Patriots have a lot of things to work on. Thankfully they have plenty of time to work on them.

Photo Credit: John Rieger/USA TODAY Sports

Patriots Get Hats and T-Shirts for Christmas

Throughout the week, the doom and gloom, sky is falling, Chicken Little, bah humbug Patriots fans and pundits out there were terrified of the Ravens. But everyone (myself included) overlooked two facts:

1. The Ravens offense failed to score a touchdown against Detroit, and only a miraculous field goal gave them a win.

2. Joe Flacco would be playing hurt.

The Ravens, particularly Flacco, played a horrendous game Sunday. Along with his bad knee, he seemed to play with a strained decision making muscle in his brain. He had a few token deep chucks. Other times he didn't notice open receivers. It was ugly.

His teammates joined in the ugliness. Penalties at the worst times, dropped passes. A variety of stocking stuffers given as gifts to the Patriots.

The Patriots offense didn't do well either. There's plenty of coal to be given to that side of the ball. They were successful on the ground, but for some reason went away from the run in the second half. Almost as if they were trying to preemptively adjust to Baltimore's adjustments to their success. Josh McDaniels' over-cleverness strikes again.

On the good list, LeGarrette Blount ran strong and piled up 76 yards on 17 carries. Stevan Ridley protected the ball and ran for 54 physical yards. As a team the Patriots rushed for 142, averaging 4.8 per carry.

Here's an alarming stat. The Pats averaged 4.8 yards per rush, and only 6.6 yards per pass. And that doesn't include sacks. Including sacks they averaged 5.6 yards per pass play. Brady was 14 for 26. He scattered a few great throws. He made a few very bad throws. Edelman caught 7 passes, or half of Brady's completions. Nobody else caught more than 2.

Julian Edelman now has 96 catches this season, for 991 yards. He's Santa Brady's chief elf.

Losing Shane Vereen to a groin injury early hurt the offense. Like the reindeer team losing Dasher.

Thankfully the defense stepped up for the Pats. Misfit elf Dont'a (similar to dentist) Hightower actually made a good play in coverage. And that resulted in an interception.

The defensive star was Logan Ryan. Two interceptions and 3 passes defended for the rookie from Rutgers. "Rudolph" Ryan led the way for the defense.

The Ravens turned the ball over 4 times. It was like the football was a Yankee Swap present that nobody wanted. The Patriots did their part to protect the football and take advantage of those turnovers.

Both teams also benefited from soft pass interference penalties in the end zone. That issue deserves its own post to discuss. If not for those calls, the Patriots offense might have looked even worse, and the Ravens might still be mired in an 8 quarter scoreless drought.

The Patriots clinched the AFC East before the game kicked off, thanks to Buffalo beating Miami. That's 11 division titles for Brady and Belichick. The Patriots are currently the #2 seed, which they can clinch (along with the bye) if they beat Buffalo next week. That game has been flexed to 4:25pm. They can gain the #1 seed with a win and a Denver loss to Oakland. Stranger things have happened this season.

Merry Christmas, Happy Festivus, Merry Bradymas, and Happy Hanubelichickkah!

Photo Credit:
USA Today Sports Images

Patriots Can't Finish Against Fins

It would be easy to say that the Patriots are banged up, beaten up, and even their "healthy" players aren't near 100%. It would be easy to blame a loss on all the injuries. The thing is, even with all injuries considered, the Patriots could have, and should have won this game.

They didn't win because they failed to finish drives. Offensively and defensively. They didn't do well enough in the Red Zone on offense, and on defense they failed to get off the field in pivotal 3rd and 4th down situations. This game turned on 3 or 4 plays.

The Patriots' first drive went for 83 yards and ended in a Red Zone field goal. By the end of the 2nd quarter they were finally able to put together a touchdown drive. However the defense failed to stop Miami on a 3rd and 10 with 1:23 left before halftime. a stop there and maybe Brady and the offense have a chance to score. However the defense failed to get the ball back. Then failed to stop Miami.

The Patriots defense failed to finish the drive on 3rd and long. Miami scored and kept themselves in it. Instead of going into halftime up 14-0 or 10-0, it was 10-7, and the Dolphins had hope.

In the 4th quarter the Patriots had three drives totaling 220 yards. And only one drive ended with a touchdown. Without Rob Gronkowski the Pats will struggle to score in the air in the Red Zone. And they didn't even try to score on the ground.

Gronk was 79 inches tall, 8 inches taller than Amendola, 9 inches taller than Edelman. Size matters in the Red Zone.

If you look at the raw numbers, the Patriots theoretically should have won. They accumulated more yardage, won the time of possession battle, committed fewer penalties, were better on 3rd down, rushed more per carry, allowed fewer sacks, turnovers were even. The difference was a handful of plays at key moments: Not stopping Miami on 3rd and 10 before halftime, or on 4th and 5 in the 4th quarter. Kicking Red Zone field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.

One strategic issue I had with the Patriots in the 4th quarter was just after they'd achieved a 1st down at the Miami 19 with 0:27 on the clock. The Pats took a timeout. I would have spiked the ball at that moment and saved the timeout. That would have kept the playbook open and forced Miami to defend the middle of the field, not just the edges. Once the Patriots took that timeout, all Miami had to defend was the space outside the numbers and in the end zone. And that put the Patriots receivers in position to have one-on-one physical battles, which the Patriots are not equipped to do without Gronk or big receivers. Edelman and Amendola, as brilliant as they are, are not going to outmuscle safeties and linebackers in the Red Zone.

Also the ball was still 19 yards away from the goal line. Keep the timeout and you can try to close the distance to 10 yards in the middle of the field. Guys like Edelman and Amendola are best when they have the option to dart inside and outside. They're at a disadvantage if they're forced to play on the edges and not use their shiftiness.

I'm not going to panic and go to DefCon 2 over this loss. The Patriots failed to win. The world somehow continues to spin. No other AFC team is significantly better than the Pats. The Broncos can't beat the Chargers at home. The Bengals were thrashed by the Steelers, who were dominated by the Patriots, who lost to the Bengals (the common denominator in all three of those games is that the home team won). I see little to no separation among the best AFC teams, and see that a handful of plays is the difference between winning and losing.

The Pats are beat up and injured, but they've won 10 games. They were 1 play from winning this game. I'm not too concerned. They have issues and weaknesses. Just like all the other teams out there.

Patriots play the Ravens in Baltimore Sunday evening. As well as Baltimore has been playing, they have weaknesses too. But I'm sure all week people will focus on the weaknesses the Patriots have.

Photo Credit:
Robert Mayer-USA Today Sports

Six in 'Nati (Get It? Like Cincinnati, and Also the Painfully Low Number of Points the Patriots Scored)

We should have known this type of game was possible. In the past we've seen the Patriots' offense fail to do enough to carry the team to victory. But Sunday afternoon they did NOTHING to help win the game. The defense played well enough for the team to win. The offense didn't. The offense lost the game.

The Patriots haven't been held to 6 points since 1996. That meaningless touchdown streak Brady had came to an end. The Pats were 1 for 12 on 3rd down. Brady threw 20 incompletions compared with 18 completions. The best non-defensive performers on the team were Stephen Gostkowski and punter Ryan Allen.

And I'm primarily going to blame Tom Brady. He just doesn't look sharp. Every catch seems difficult, miraculous at times. On Sunday he overthrew, underthrew, and completely missed receivers. There were occasions when Dobson didn't run the route that Brady expected, there were also occasions when Brady was horribly inaccurate when throwing downfield, especially in the middle of the field. Even when he and the receivers connect, the catches are hard and off-stride.

Smaller portions of blame go to Danny Amendola, who had a big drop in the 4th quarter (he's looking more and more like Wes Welker). Brandon Bolden dropped a few passes. LeGarrette Blount fumbled. Let's not forget all of that.

I'll also blame the play-calling. The wide receivers still don't seem to be on the same page with Brady. So maybe it's time to go with a simpler page. Especially in the 4th quarter when you're down by a score. I don't remember the offensive playbook being so complex when the Patriots didn't have Pro Bowlers running routes, back from 2001 to 2006. Maybe going back to basics wouldn't be such a bad thing.

And the Red Zone play-calling irritated me more than anything. A token jumbo package run that failed. By the way, I've been told that Blount isn't a very good short yardage back, despite his bulk. I believe that. The Pats then went from simple play to cute trickery, throwing a pass to Nate Solder. Why? The 3rd down play was a good call, it just didn't work. I would have liked to see the Patriots try that on 2nd down, then again on 3rd if it failed.

On the bright side, the defense continues to play well. They pressured Dalton, and sacked him at key times. They held Green, Gresham, and Eifert to 138 combined yards, which isn't bad at all. And they were a 4th down stop away from bringing this game into overtime, despite how Godawful the offense was playing. The defense gave Brady so many chances for a game-winning drive. Brady and the offense failed to deliver.

The Patriots host the Saints next weekend. That's kind of a big game. But as we've seen between the Pats win over Atlanta, and now their loss to Cincinnati, you're only as good as you play each week. So don't panic about this loss, and don't develop an anxiety disorder if the Saints come to town and win (and don't plan a Super Bowl trip if the Pats win). This is a week to week spot, take it one week at a time.

Photo Credit:
Marc Lebryk - USA Today

Patriots Continue to Survive

In retrospect, the Patriots had every edge coming into this game. They had extra time off. They're familiar with the Buccaneers after practicing with them and playing them in preseason. Josh Freeman is a negative player at quarterback and probably won't be QB for much longer. Even the weather cooperated by kickoff and gave the Pats a nice day, with no rain-assisted random turnovers or slips.

The offense still looks like a pickup game that's been thrown together at the last minute. The lack of healthy ball-catching talent (BCT) on this team has tested Josh McDaniels, and so far he's barely passing. He was an apparent genius in 2007 when he had Brady throwing to Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Kevin Faulk. Anyone could have coordinated that Madden offense to break records. 2013 has been much more challenging.

If this were a college course, I'd recommend McDaniels take it pass/fail, because his grade will just hurt his GPA. It's not, and the offense will need to do more than barely pass for this team to succeed. It is still only September. Super Bowls aren't won in September, just regular season games. And all this team wanted to do was survive the early season until injured players like Gronkowski returned.

The defense continues to look sharp. You can tell how much faith Belichick had in the defense (at least when they're playing against the Buccaneers offense) when the Patriots offense went for it on 4th and 2 in the 2nd quarter. Even if the Pats didn't get it, Belichick trusted his defense to hold the Buccs.

Fourth down decided this game. Tampa Bay went for it on 4th down 4 times and failed each time. The Pats converted a 4th and 2 then scored to go up 7-3, then the defense stopped Tampa on 4th down, then the Pats scored on their next possession, then an Aqib Talib interception set up a field goal and it was 17-3 Pats. If the Pats don't convert their 4th down and the Buccs convert theirs, then the halftime score might have been 10-0 or 10-3 Buccaneers. The Patriots offense couldn't put any drives together in the second half, so that 2nd quarter stretch of scoring won the game for them.

The rushing offense wasn't great, but it wasn't bad. It was certainly better than it was against the Jets. And that made a difference in the 4th. On one drive LaGarrette Blount rushed 8 times (6 in a row) for 56 yards. The drive drained 4:41 of clock and sealed the game. Somewhere Corey Dillon was smiling.

Brandon Bolden also had a big game with 100 total yards, most of which came in a 46 yard reception.

Brady spread the ball around like he used to (was forced to) back before 2007. Six different Pats caught receptions, 8 were targeted. Michael Hoomanawanui caught 2 passes, bringing the catch total for Patriots tight-ends up to 3 for 35 yards. To put that in perspective, Patriots RBs have caught 14 passes for 119 yards this season. Brady doesn't even look at tight-ends anymore. Only 7 targets between Hooman and Zach Sudfeld in 3 games.

Before the season started we just wanted the Pats to survive the first few weeks without Gronkowski. They've done that so far. Four of their next 6 games are against tougher opponents, but they also play the Jets and Steelers. The team is doing what they need to do at this time of year, in this situation. And they could quite conceivably go into the bye week with a 7-2 or 6-3 record. I'll take that given the circumstances.

Next week it's Sunday Night Football in Atlanta.

Photo Credit:
Brad Penner - USA Today

Situations to Use Tim Tebow

Yesterday Tim Tebow arrived, and the difference in his arrival to New England compared to his arrival to New York demonstrates how different his role here will be. Last year Tebow had his own press conference when he was introduced as a member of the Jets. Yesterday he briefly spoke with the media, gave a stock "happy to be here" statement that I'm sure was prepared beforehand and given Belichick's blessing (pardon the religious pun). And let's also remember that Rex Ryan didn't seem to want Tebow on his team. I'm sure Belichick does, or he wouldn't be here.

I know it's a little weird to talk about a football player playing football, and not talk about media circuses and the Gospels, but let's try. Here are some situations in which Tim Tebow could be a good player to have on the field:

Punts:
The Jets used him as a protector on their punt team. It makes sense. Not only is he a big guy, but he's a threat for fakes. Both running and passing. Even if you don't fake, the opposing team must respect the possibility, and that might mean their return isn't as focused on blocking.

FG Holder:
Again, for the potential to fake.

Short Yardage/Goal Line:
You line Brady up under center. Brady's as good as it gets at the QB sneak. You also line Tebow up as a tailback. Or even a fullback with Ridley or Vereen as the tailback. So as Brady moves under center, if the sneak doesn't look like a good option, he can hand it off to Tebow. Or fake a handoff to Tebow and go play-action and throw it to Gronk or Hernandez. Or hand off to Ridley/Vereen and have Tebow block. Or have Tebow run in the opposite direction of the ball and fake out the defense. Tebow will draw attention when he's on the field.

Fullback:
The traditional fullback is an endangered species. Belichick has frequently used players from other positions to fill the role, from linebackers to tight-ends. There are very few times when this need arises, short-yardage is one of those times. So is running out the clock late in games (which the Patriots don't do in the traditional way).

There are times that require powerbacks and fullbacks. Vereen (205 pounds) is not a powerback. Ridley isn't much of one either (220 pounds). Tebow weighs 236. He's strong. He can be the fill-in fullback.

Tight-End:
This one seems far-fetched. The Patriots have Gronkowski and Ballard. Hernandez is kind of a slot guy, but still a tight-end. Tebow could be used as a 3rd tight-end, again in short yardage situations. I have no idea how well he can catch. You don't want a guy bobbling the ball when defenders are all around him, eager to snatch up a loose ball for an interception. I have to see Tebow's hands before wanting him to play any tight-end.

Trick Plays:
Josh McDaniels got a little too clever with his trick plays last year. He loved using Edelman in crazy reverses and option runs. I hope McDaniels doesn't get overly creative with Tebow trickery. There are moments for trick plays. Two-point conversions, for instance, are a great time to line up Tebow and Brady next to each other in shotgun formation and get weird.

So with Tebow, you fill up some of the lower slots on your depth-chart. #3 QB, #3/#4 RB, #3/#4 TE, and he holds, and he plays on the punt team, and he's in jumbo packages.

Does he put you over the top? No. And we don't even know how many, if any, of these tasks he'll be able to carry out. But there are potential roles he can play. He can be like Steve Buscemi or Paul Giamatti, parts of the supporting cast that are only in a few scenes and help add texture and depth to the movie. So just imagine Steve Buscemi, only with the paparazzi following of Kristen Stewart combined with Lindsay Lohan.

But didn't Ichiro have a huge media following when he played in Seattle? And did the Boston Sports Media worry as much over the media attention that Daisuke Matsuzaka was going to bring with him? I think we're witnessing the media overreacting to the impact that the media's overreacting will have on a team. This is the media's version of Inception.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

Patriots Sign Tim Tebow

Emotionally, I hate this. I am not a Tim Tebow fan. I don't hate him, I just don't have any reason to like him. I hate the mania that surrounds him. There's nothing I've seen from him that I like. I hate his fans, and that's not his fault, but I hate seeing his fans happy. And now their happiness coincides with my happiness as a Patriots fan.

From a strictly football perspective, it makes sense. It's not a major plus. It's a low-risk type of acquisition. As a #3 QB you have a guy with NFL experience, with athleticism, with playoff experience. His mechanics suck, his decision making is questionable, but as a #3 last resort, project QB, why not? What is there to lose?

And he is an athlete and can play in different spots, maybe as a goal-line runningback, maybe as a #4 tight-end, whatever.

All his on-field negatives as a passer are irrelevant because I don't think he'll see the field as a quarterback unless something awful has happened or the Patriots are up by 28 points with a minute left. And in other spots he'll see the field if he deserves it. Hopefully not in many trick situations, Josh McDaniels likes those too much in my opinion.

The Patriots drafted a rugby player once. They signed a track athlete. They're willing to give athletes a chance to earn a spot on the roster and on the field. They now have a #3 QB who might be able to find minor roles in other aspects of the game. Why not?

As far as the off-field negatives (in this day and age we consider someone with no criminal record to have off-field negatives), the whole "circus" that accompanies Tebow, I'm not too worried. There won't be any QB controversy between he and Brady. The media interns at Gillette Stadium will have to print more credentials for training camp. And the Patriots coaches and players will have more questions to answer without really answering. What team is better at defeating the media's attempts to excavate interesting stories and extract juicy quotes than the Patriots?

Bill Belichick vs. The Media. Who's the favorite in that battle?

This is a huge story for a #3 quarterback who might play special-teams and goal-line situations. This is a potential minor improvement to the Patriots roster with a player who has garnered far too much attention, praise, and hatred for who and what he has done. The Tim Tebow story is a feedback loop. The media is making a circus of it because it is a media circus. This is a story about a story.

If you're like me and emotionally upset about this, I'm going to quote The Book of Rob:

"This isn't the end of the world."
-Rob 3:16

I Would Not Miss Brandon Lloyd

74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. All week, whenever Brandon Lloyd has been discussed, these figures were repeated. Over. And over. And over.

I'm not impressed. Not at all.

On the surface 74 catches and 911 yards seems productive. Especially compared to what Chad Ochocinco gave the Pats in 2011. However, other numbers tell a different story about Brandon Lloyd's season. He was soft, unreliable, and not explosive at all. Numbers prove it.

Before I delve into those numbers, how many catches and yards would Lloyd have had if Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman been healthy all season? I'd say 55 catches and 650 yards would be fair. So that 74-911 is partially due to Brady's other options missing time.

Brandon Lloyd was 2nd on this team with 74 receptions. But was 5th in Yards After the Catch (YAC). With only 180 YAC from 74 receptions, that works out to be an average of 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. That's abysmal. Especially for a so-called "outside the numbers" receiver. Lloyd fell to the ground quickly and skedaddled out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. He was soft.

As a team, the Patriots had over 2,000 total YAC. Lloyd's contribution to that was a measly 8.9%. Lloyd's 2.43 YAC per Reception was the worst among Patriots with 20+ catches. Danny Woodhead was the best in that category with 6.55, followed by Julian Edelman at 6.48, then Rob Gronkowski at 5.55, Wes Welker at 5.25, and Aaron Hernandez at 3.82. All but Hernandez doubled Lloyd's production after the catch.

Another stat demonstrates Lloyd's inconsistency and unreliability. All season long, he made absurdly difficult catches, but struggled with the easy ones. He was targeted 130 times (only Welker was targeted more at 174) and managed to catch the ball 74 times. That's 56.9%. And that's for a guy who spends most of his time on the outside, not in the clustered middle of the field. 56 times this season, Brady threw the ball in his direction and Lloyd didn't catch it.

Welker caught 67.8% of his targets, Gronkowski 70%, Hernandez 61%, Woodhead 73%, Edelman 66%. Whenever Lloyd was on the field, he was Brady's least reliable target.

Lloyd was inconsistent from play to play, and was also inconsistent from week to week. He only had four games with 80+ yards. And only eight games with 50+ yards.

Finally, Lloyd was not explosive at all. He had 10 catches of 20 yards or more. So 64 of his receptions were for 19 or less. In the NFL last season, 55 players had 10+ catches of 20+ yards, so his 10 aren't stunning (especially considering his 130 targets). Lloyd only had 2 catches of 30+ yards. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch, which was a career low.

He did catch 50 first downs, which was 2nd only behind Welker's 74. Then again, the Pats had 256 receiving first downs, so his contribution was less than a fifth. And the Patriots ran for 151 more first downs (407 total), so his contribution is more like an eighth (12.3%).

I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a problem and needs to go. He was kind of productive, in his own way. But, he was also soft, limited, not explosive, inconsistent, unreliable.

Replacing Lloyd's 74 catches and 911 receptions might prove difficult. But getting more meaningful production from someone else won't be hard at all.

Speculating About Josh McDaniels

I love the sports media. All media, really. They all follow the same formula when "following" a story.

Step 1: Find an interesting fact. In this case, the fact that Josh McDaniels is actively refusing head coaching vacancies. But simply regurgitating facts isn't enough to justify a journalist's paycheck. We need to know why and it's the journalist's job to tell us.

After step 1, the journalist has an option, A difficult Step 2 or an easy Step 2.

Difficult Step 2: Find out why the fact is. Do research, ask questions, contact sources, dig through records. Do some serious journalism to find out why the fact from Step 1 is so.

Easy Step 2: Speculate why. Guess. It's not only easier and faster, you get to choose the most sensational guess to cover and discuss. So the story is always as interesting as possible.

Step 3: Opine. Give opinions. If you are on the speculative track, your opinions should reflect that by being strong, extreme, and inflexible. Because it's best to have a solid, immovable opinion when your facts are flimsy.

Facts and truth have little to do with journalism. At least not the journalism that anyone reads or cares about. And this lack of facts is not just true in the sports media, by the way, it's politics, entertainment, financial news. Everything. Interesting speculation and extreme opinions get more attention than simple facts and moderate opinions.

So here's my sensational Josh McDaniels speculation: I think if the Patriots win this Super Bowl, Bill Belichick will retire within a month. He'll set up his heir-apparent McDaniels with a team that still has Brady, and has a young talented defense. Belichick gets to retire but his legacy lives on.

Here's my reasonable speculation: McDaniels has already failed as a head coach. The next chance he gets will likely be his last. The current vacancies aren't with teams that have good situations. They're mostly teams mired in turmoil. McDaniels might want to wait for a more favorable situation to arise.

Here's a boring speculation: Maybe McDaniels likes it here, likes working with Bill, likes working with Brady. Maybe he tried head-coaching and it wasn't for him. Some coaches are Captain Kirks, some are Mr. Spocks. There's nothing wrong with being a Spock.

Here's my absurd speculation: McDaniels is secretly married to Jonathan Kraft, and the two of them used Gisele Bundchen to be a surrogate mother to a child conceived using DNA from McDaniels and Belichick's daughter. The pregnancy was accompanied by dark sacrifices and Satanic rituals, overseen by evil wizard Ernie Adams. The child will one day coach the Patriots, bring the world as we know it to an end, and win 8 Super Bowl titles.

King William Belichick, Lord Thomas Brady, and Sir Robert Gronkowski Give Rams a Good Thrashing

The Patriots finally beat an NFC West opponent, as they pounded the Rams in London.

Some were worried about this game because the Patriots have a horrible pass defense and Sam Bradford is a decent QB. But the Rams have their own problems. The Patriots took advantage of the Rams weak offensive line. The Pats drew penalties from an aggressive secondary. And the running game sliced and diced all day.

When this offense doesn't hiccup and continues to apply pressure on an opponent, it makes life easy for the defense. Whenever the Pats execute properly and take a 3 possession lead, their chances of winning escalate exponentially. When the offense stutters and stalls, opponents can claw their way back.

The offense doesn't need to put up 31+ every week, but when they have a chance to build a sizable lead, they MUST take advantage of it. Otherwise it's up to the defense, and that's not something you can depend on much. This team wins with offense.

Stevan Ridley rushed for 127 yards, 88 in the 3rd quarter alone. Both he and Shane Vereen ran for TDs.

Tom Brady had his 50th 300+ yard game, as well as his 40th consecutive game with a TD pass. Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Lloyd each caught a pair of touchdowns. Zoltan Mesko's feet didn't touch the ball until 12:24 into the 3rd quarter. The Patriots made it to the end zone on their first five drives.

That fake spike on 1st and goal was a trick play I didn't mind seeing. The timing appropriate, the risk was minimal. That's the type of trickery I want to see from Josh McDaniels. Nothing more.

Defensively, the Pats were able to tee off on Bradford, thanks to the big lead. Chandler Jones had his 6th sack of the season.

It was nice to be bored during the 4th quarter.

Bye week then the Bills are in town. So two bye weeks.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Blow Save, Win in Extra Innings

One good thing about the Patriots is that they play entertaining 4th quarters. One bad thing about the Patriots is that they play entertaining 4th quarters.

At some point this team MUST learn how to close. The difference between good teams and great teams is the ability to close games when you're ahead, and occasionally steal them when you're behind.

If NFL games were 3 quarters long, the Patriots would be 5-1-1 (tied with Buffalo 21-21 after 3 quarters). Not only that, they would've beaten Tennessee by 18, Denver by 17, Seattle by 10, and New York by 10. In 7 games, the Pats have "won" only three 4th quarters. They've been outscored 4 out of 7 games in the 4th.

The Patriots didn't make game-deciding plays until very late in this game. They didn't make game-changing plays either. They dropped passes, didn't take advantage of the safety, didn't take advantage of Alfonzo Dennard's INT, or a facemask penalty on a punt. The Jets gave the Patriots chances to put them away, and the Pats refused. Instead they tried flea-flickers, and that shit needs to stop right fucking now, Josh.

This lack of opportunism is an alarming trend.

Even more disturbing is a realization I had while watching this game: the success or failure of the Patriots depends on Devin McCourty more than anyone else.

That's a scary thought, but it's true. Look at this game. McCourty returns a kickoff and the Patriots look strong. He fumbles a kickoff and the Jets almost win. His blown coverages and pass interference penalties have punctuated game-winning drives for opponents. And his interceptions have sealed victories for the Patriots.

McCourty has had much more influence over the outcome of games than an inconsistent 3rd year defensive back should have. Other players need to step up and take more control of the game.

On the bright side, a win is a win. And Alfonzo Dennard looks very good for a rookie. The Pats ultimately made enough plays to win. The Jets clearly suck. There are some things to be optimistic about.

One request, though... Football stadiums should play "Safety Dance" by Men Without Hats whenever there's a safety. Everybody would love it. All the fans would dance and if they don't dance well they're no fans of mine.

Patriots play the Rams in London next Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Clutchless in Seattle

Clutchness isn't just coming through when the game is on the line. When there's a chance to seal a victory in the 3rd or 4th quarter, clutchness can be making the plays that don't allow an opponent to hang around and possibly beat you later. In other words, putting nails in the coffin when you have a hammer in your hand.

We haven't seen such clutchness from the Patriots in a very long time.

They don't put teams away. They let them hang around. And as alarmingly bad as the defense can be at times, I'm more disappointed in how the Patriots' "high-octane" offense runs out of gas when it has a chance to drive daggers into opponents.

Can somebody photocopy the part of the NFL rulebook about intentional grounding and leave it in Tom Brady's locker? Even though the one out of the end zone is something I've never seen called, the refs seem to be paying close attention to how/when/where he throws the ball away. Time for him to be more careful.

Here's another Brady beef. His interceptions were products of cocky throws. He makes brilliant pass after brilliant pass, then tries to get a little too brilliant, and attempts to force a ball that needs to be perfect in order to not be an INT. And no offense to Deion Branch, but it's unfair to expect the 5' 9" 33 year old to wrestle with defensive backs to haul in a catch.

There were some serious game-management miscues yesterday. All 3 second half timeouts were wasted. And then I don't know why the Patriots tried to run out the clock on the ground when Seattle was expecting them to run. Seemed like a great time for a play-action pass.

All game the run only worked when Seattle was caught off balance by it.

This offense's strategy has oscillated from crazy and aggressive (Julian Edelman trick plays) to overly conservative (those two Stevan Ridley runs in the 4th). I'd rather see something in the middle. I like aggressive play-calling, just not the insane aggression and the trick plays. With the lead and 3 minutes left, try to get 1st downs. Don't settle for forcing Seattle to call timeout twice.

Now to the defense. Last year, as bad as this unit was, they didn't give up many big plays. This year they can't help themselves.

There are no safeties on this roster. Sending players to try to play safety is pointless. They don't know how, and they're physically incapable of playing the position.

Maybe it's better to go without safeties, just keep 8 men in the box and attack the QB.

The defense is not going to win these games. It has to be the offense. That's just how it is. And the defense stopped Seattle with 3 minutes left and gave the offense a chance to end the game with the ball.

The entire roster (except maybe Wes Welker) and coaching staff are responsible for this loss. And even if the defense is more responsible, they have less talent. This offense should be able to finish games, and they haven't been able to.

The Pats are 0-3 against teams named after things that fly. Hopefully that just applies to birds because the Jets are in town Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Wes Welker Explains Comments

When Wes Welker remarked "It's kind of nice to stick it in Bill's face once in a while," I shook my head. Not because I was worried about animosity between Welker and Belichick, but because I knew that some desperate wings of the Boston Sports Media would dissect and discuss those remarks as if they were anything more than a joke.

Welker has confirmed that his words were in jest. This is nothing new for him. He has a Kevin Millaresque streak of silly commentary.

What convinced me that Welker was just joking is that he said anything at all. If there truly were a serious rift between Welker and Belichick, I doubt Welker would be absolutely silent on the matter, then air his grievances during a post-game interview, then call his remarks a joke. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm sure Welker wasn't happy about Julian Edelman essentially being promoted above him on the depth chart. I think everyone in New England apart from Edelman, Josh McDaniels, and Bill Belichick was unhappy about that. It was a mistake. I don't think there was an ulterior motive behind it, such as punishing Welker for holding out or trying to reduce his free-agent value for 2013. I think the Patriots saw something in Edelman that never materialized during the games. The decision was wrong. Simple as that.

But Welker has materialized now that Edelman has been sidelined by injury. In the first two games of the season Welker caught 8 passes for 109 yards. Since then, he's averaged 10 receptions and 125 yards per game. And he caught his first TD of the season on Sunday.

So it seems as though Welker has definitely earned his job back. That's good for the Patriots, bad for the rest of the NFL.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Brady Beats Manning... What Else Is New

Tom Brady improved to 9-4 in his career against Peyton Manning. Although like many of those famous victories in 2003 and 2004, the Patriots beat Manning as a team.

The Pats put up some collegiate style stats. They rushed for 251 yards on 54 carries. They only threw the ball 31 times. They ran 89 plays. At times it reminded me of watching Clemson, or especially Oregon. High-paced, quick-snapping, no-huddle offense. It doesn't work all the time, but it worked against Denver.

Wes Welker had another Wes Welker kind of day. 8 receptions, 104 yards, his first TD of the season. I think the best thing to happen to this offense was the injury to Julian Edelman. Welker's talents were being wasted as a third/fourth option. After the game he jokingly remarked that it was nice to "Stick it in Bill's face."

There are a number of things Wes Welker can't do. But only Wes Welker can do what Wes Welker does. He gets open in a instant, he's slippery, he's a compact target to tackle, he's durable. He's like a small pickup truck with a turbo-charged engine.

This game turned on some big 3rd and long conversions, along with some Denver mistakes. In other words, there's room for improvement. And that's not me being pessimistic, it's me being optimistic. This team has potential to be amazing if they can put 60 good minutes together.

Defensively, there were some lapses, also some big plays allowed. The forced fumbles were pivotal. And Alfonzo Dennard looked pretty good in his first ever NFL game. As always for this unit, it was a mixed bag.

Offensively, my only complaint is that for one drive in the 4th the Pats went away from the run, which had been working so well. It was as if Josh McDaniels wanted to drive the stake into Denver with a few big pass plays, instead of continuing to slowly torture them.

And I don't mind the 4th & 5 attempt. I do think that if you intend to go for it on 4th & 5, why not run on 3rd & 5? It'd been working all day. But up by as many as they were, I have no problem with the Patriots being aggressive in that part of the field.

The Pats aren't perfect. No team in the NFL is. The Patriots have a defense that surrenders big plays and makes big plays. They have an offense that can beat you in a multitude of ways. So long as they do their job and execute, the only team that can truly beat the Patriots is the Patriots.

Pats at Seahawks next Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Ravens 31, Patriots 30

Regardless of whether or not that field goal was good, and despite the amateurish officiating that seemed to define the game, the Patriots are the most responsible for their loss to Baltimore last night.

And it wasn't the defense. Even though the defense allowed Baltimore to move the ball on that game-winning drive, even though the defense allowed the Ravens to stay in the game, it was the offense that didn't hold its side of the bargain.

The Patriots offense had so many chances to end this game. And they didn't execute. When the Pats' defense stopped the Ravens on 4th & 1, the offense didn't do much. They were up by 9, with about 10 minutes left, and a chance to make it a 16 point game. Or even a 12 point game. 6 plays and 3:21 later and Baltimore had the ball back.

And the drive before that, the Patriots drove to the Baltimore 2, and only managed a field goal.

The Patriots made 5 trips to the Red Zone and only managed 3 touchdowns.

There were other missed opportunities. Joe Flacco should have been picked off 3 times, not just once. Devin McCourty bungled those. He was also burnt more than an Irishman's skin in the Sahara with no sunscreen. I don't know how such horrific burns don't appear on the injury report.

The play-calling last night was, at times, infuriating. The direct-snap to Danny Woodhead, then end-around to Julian Edelman was one of the most enraging moments of my life. It's 2nd & 6, you're moving the ball with traditional plays, so you open up Boise State's playbook, and get all cute and clever? Why?

The Ravens had been penetrating into the backfield all night until that point, and McDaniels/Belichick/Brady gave them a chance to blow up a play and end a drive.

I get the feeling with this offense that they're trying to win a certain way, instead of just trying to win any way possible. These tricks and gadgets are for the Bad News Bears or for the softball team from Camp Misfit when the super-athletes from across the lake come to play them.

If you think you need to try these tricky type of plays in order to win, then you don't have faith in your offense to simply execute the simple.

In that drive, the Patriots already tried an end-around and got a 1st down out of it. So Baltimore was already keenly aware of such a possibility. More traditional plays had been working, so why risk a big loss on 2nd & 6?

Sometimes you can think yourself so smart that you do stupid things and don't even notice it.

Anyway, I'll talk about the refs in a separate post, because it's a big enough issue in and of itself. The refs didn't cause the Patriots to lose, the Patriots caused this loss themselves. Although it's strange how Rob Gronkowski gets called for holding at least once a game. Are these all these replacement refs related to Bibi Jones or something?

Anyway, the Patriots should have won the last 2 games and didn't. That's good news/bad news. The good news is this team has talent enough to be 3-0. The bad news is, they haven't demonstrated an ability to consistently turn that talent into victory. They haven't executed, and consequently they'e 1-2, and below .500 for the first time in 145 games.

And you know what, you can't help but feel sentimental for Torrey Smith. He had a brilliant game only a few hours after tragedy completely changed his life. Logos and jerseys aside, I'm glad he had a good game.

The Pats are in Buffalo next Sunday. The Bills, along with the Jets, are ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East standings. I just puked in my mouth.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Your Wes Welker Theories

After Week 2 last year, Wes Welker had 15 catches for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns. After 2 games this year, he has 8 catches for 109 yards and 0 scores. Why has his contribution been so dramatically reduced?

The last person anyone is blaming is Wes Welker. And some of New England's more dunderheaded sports fans have been attributing his lack of catches and lack of playing time to villainous scheming by Bill Belichick. My two favorite theories have been that Belichick doesn't want to pay Welker very much in 2013, so he's limiting Welker's production, thereby reducing his apparent value. The other golden nugget of imbecility is that Belichick is trying to "send a message" to Welker for the receiver's off-season contract negotiations.

People who actually believe such notions should be spayed or neutered in order to remove their faulty DNA from the gene pool and protect the human species from devolving back to simpler primates.

Other players have had contract disputes with the Patriots, then returned to the team, and their playing time didn't change. Why would Belichick start sending such messages now? And the suggestion that Belichick would jeopardize winning, or that Tom Brady would go along with such a change in priority, is laughable.

There are other FOOTBALL RELATED reasons that Welker isn't on the field as often. I think Josh McDaniels had wanted the slot-receiver role to be minimized in general. He wanted the tight-ends, Brandon Lloyd, and the running game to be the spearheads of the offense. That might change after Aaron Hernandez's injury. Welker certainly got more attention in the second half on Sunday.

And to be frank, maybe Welker hasn't earned more playing time than he's gotten. I can't forget his Super Bowl drop. Or his drop in Week 1. Or the drop on Sunday that preceded the blocked punt. He doesn't look as sharp as he did in years past. An maybe he doesn't look sharp in practice either.

Nobody is talking about this. Nobody is attributing the lack of targets or snaps to Wes Welker. I could only bear to listen to a few minutes of sports radio yesterday, but didn't hear Welker's pre-punt-block drop mentioned once. He had a chance to make a big 1st down play, and he failed. All 10 fingers touched the ball.

I don't pretend to know why Bill Belichick or his assistants do what they do. I try to come up with possible explanations that make logical sense. There is a complete lack of logic behind some of these Welker theories. To me it seems impossible that Welker's lack of targets/snaps is anything more than a football decision. You might not think it's a smart decision, but don't conjure harebrained theories about contracts or messages.

Why I Think the Patriots Cut Stallworth and Gaffney

When the Patriots piled their plate high and deep with WRs, I thought Donte Stallworth was a long shot to make the team but figured Jabar Gaffney would likely be on the roster. Gaffney has worked well with Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels in the past, and he did well in 2011, finishing with 947 receiving yards for the Redskins.

I figured the WR depth chart would be Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Deion Branch, and Donte Stallworth. I wasn't shocked when Stallworth got cut, but parting ways with Gaffney surprised me.

Until I thought of the offensive line.

If there were a Moneyball 2 about football, I think the statistician Jonah Hill played would be obsessed with one number: Throwing Time. The amount of time a QB has to throw the football.

And judging from the preseason games, Tom Brady won't have that much time to throw. It won't be like 2007 with Stallworth, Gaffney, and of course Randy Moss. When Brady had an eternity to find a receiver, and those receivers had an eternity to go downfield.

Tom Brady simply won't have the time necessary for vertical receivers like Gaffney and Stallworth to go downfield. He'll need shifty mid-range and underneath receivers like Welker, Branch, and the tight-ends. Guys who can get open quickly, and whose diversity present matchup problems for defenses. Brady can spot those problems pre-snap and get rid of the ball before the pressure envelops him.

Carrying WRs who primarily go deep is a waste of roster spots. There won't be enough Throwing Time to consistently go deep. Plus with the tight-ends, how often will more than three WRs be on the field for the Pats? Stallworth and Gaffney were unnecessary parts of the Patriots' offensive machine.

Patriots Sign Jabar Gaffney

When the Redskins let go of Jabar Gaffney, part of me thought that the Patriots might sign him. He was once a solid 3rd option for the Patriots (behind Moss and Welker), and had done well for the Broncos and even better for the Redskins.

Then I said to myself "the Patriots already have a packed stable of WRs. They won't sign Gaffney."

But the Patriots did sign him. And now that I've been able to think more about it, it makes sense.

The Patriots have Chad Ochocinco, Deion Branch, Brandon Lloyd, Anthony Gonzalez, Julian Edelman and Donte Stallworth. Wes Welker's status is still unknown, but you know the Patriots want to keep him. Gaffney is the 8th receiver to the party, but he's not the 8th in line. Matthew Slater is listed as a receiver, but his true value is on Special Teams. Still, 8 WRs on a team with a pair of tight-ends that combined for 169 catches is a bit weird. Brady threw 611 passes last year. There's only so many passes to go around.

But Gaffney is stability. He's the known variable. Look at the other guys. Most have a question mark. Ochocinco doesn't understand the playbook. Branch will be 33 when the season starts. Gonzalez hasn't caught a pass since 2010 and he only caught 5 that year. Edelman caught 4 passes last year. Stallworth only caught 22 passes last year and hasn't been the same since 2007 with the Pats.

Gaffney is pretty good. He caught 68 passes for 947 yards last year. He's a guy that Josh McDaniels likes to worth with, and worked under him in New England and Denver. You know what you're getting with Gaffney.

If you had to put 5 eligible receivers on the field for the Patriots, it'd be Gronkowski, Hernandez, Welker, Gaffney, and either Lloyd or Branch. And that's why the Patriots sign him.

Gaffney is the #2 receiver on this team behind Welker. He can run deep routes, go across the middle, and he doesn't whine when someone else gets the ball more than him. He works well in McDaniels' system.

This Patriots' off-season is getting ridiculous.