I Would Not Miss Brandon Lloyd

74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. All week, whenever Brandon Lloyd has been discussed, these figures were repeated. Over. And over. And over.

I'm not impressed. Not at all.

On the surface 74 catches and 911 yards seems productive. Especially compared to what Chad Ochocinco gave the Pats in 2011. However, other numbers tell a different story about Brandon Lloyd's season. He was soft, unreliable, and not explosive at all. Numbers prove it.

Before I delve into those numbers, how many catches and yards would Lloyd have had if Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman been healthy all season? I'd say 55 catches and 650 yards would be fair. So that 74-911 is partially due to Brady's other options missing time.

Brandon Lloyd was 2nd on this team with 74 receptions. But was 5th in Yards After the Catch (YAC). With only 180 YAC from 74 receptions, that works out to be an average of 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. That's abysmal. Especially for a so-called "outside the numbers" receiver. Lloyd fell to the ground quickly and skedaddled out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. He was soft.

As a team, the Patriots had over 2,000 total YAC. Lloyd's contribution to that was a measly 8.9%. Lloyd's 2.43 YAC per Reception was the worst among Patriots with 20+ catches. Danny Woodhead was the best in that category with 6.55, followed by Julian Edelman at 6.48, then Rob Gronkowski at 5.55, Wes Welker at 5.25, and Aaron Hernandez at 3.82. All but Hernandez doubled Lloyd's production after the catch.

Another stat demonstrates Lloyd's inconsistency and unreliability. All season long, he made absurdly difficult catches, but struggled with the easy ones. He was targeted 130 times (only Welker was targeted more at 174) and managed to catch the ball 74 times. That's 56.9%. And that's for a guy who spends most of his time on the outside, not in the clustered middle of the field. 56 times this season, Brady threw the ball in his direction and Lloyd didn't catch it.

Welker caught 67.8% of his targets, Gronkowski 70%, Hernandez 61%, Woodhead 73%, Edelman 66%. Whenever Lloyd was on the field, he was Brady's least reliable target.

Lloyd was inconsistent from play to play, and was also inconsistent from week to week. He only had four games with 80+ yards. And only eight games with 50+ yards.

Finally, Lloyd was not explosive at all. He had 10 catches of 20 yards or more. So 64 of his receptions were for 19 or less. In the NFL last season, 55 players had 10+ catches of 20+ yards, so his 10 aren't stunning (especially considering his 130 targets). Lloyd only had 2 catches of 30+ yards. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch, which was a career low.

He did catch 50 first downs, which was 2nd only behind Welker's 74. Then again, the Pats had 256 receiving first downs, so his contribution was less than a fifth. And the Patriots ran for 151 more first downs (407 total), so his contribution is more like an eighth (12.3%).

I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a problem and needs to go. He was kind of productive, in his own way. But, he was also soft, limited, not explosive, inconsistent, unreliable.

Replacing Lloyd's 74 catches and 911 receptions might prove difficult. But getting more meaningful production from someone else won't be hard at all.

Patriots Win in the Air and on the Ground

The last time the Patriots had a pair of 100 yard rushers in a game was 1982. And only one other time in NFL history did a team have two 100 yard rushers and two 100 yard receivers. But it wasn't all gaudy stats and pretty plays yesterday. At times the Patriots looked very shaky.

Let's celebrate the positive before dissecting the negative.

Wes Welker, filling in for injured starting slot receiver Julian Edelman, caught 9 passes for 129 yards. I think this Welker fellow might be able to contribute to this offense, even when Edelman returns. Call it a hunch. He seems to have knack for this.

The Patriots offense started the game with a touchdown drive. The first time they've done so this season. That should be more commonplace. Starting games 7-0 has been a Patriots trademark for half a decade.

Rob Gronkowski also had a big day, he caught 5 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown.

On the ground, the Patriots combined for 247 yards and 4 TDs. Stevan Ridley rushed for 106, and undrafted rookie free agent Brandon Bolden ran for 137.

The Patriots scored 45 points in the second half, although the flip-side of that is that they only scored 7 in the first half. Their early drives were incoherent and sputtering. They couldn't string multiple positive plays together, and the Bills did a very good job of covering Brady's targets. Brandon Lloyd was covered so thoroughly that he seemed to be draped in a Buffalo Bills snuggie.

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions in the first half, but the Pats were unable to capitalize on them.

The defense made some big plays, and allowed a few of them too. The pass-rush was inconsistent, and in this aerial era of the passer, any QB will find an open receiver given enough time. The Patriots secondary wasn't up to the challenge. The safeties found themselves out of position. And Devin McCourty was able to intercept two passes only because the receiver beat him but Fitzpatrick underthrew the ball.

This team has flaws. We all see them, we all know them. What irks me is when the best players on this team don't play their best. When Brady and the offense fail to take advantage of turnovers. When the kicker misses kicks under 50 yards. When receivers drop passes or fumble the ball.

For several years, the Pats haven't excelled at taking full advantage of the opportunities they have to win games. There have been crucial moments when making one simple play can dramatically increase the chances of winning the game, and the Patriots have fallen short. That worries me more than the secondary or the kicker.

The Pats host the Broncos Sunday evening.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Commit Cardinal Sins

You can point to two special teams plays and say "Here's where the Pats lost the game." The blocked punt that led to an Arizona touchdown, and of course Stephen Gostkowski's missed field goal.

It's not so simple. This was a team loss. The Patriots lost this game, quite thoroughly. Not just a kicker, not just a backup receiver that failed to execute a block.

The play before Zoltan Mesko's punt was blocked, Wes Welker let a ball slip through all 10 of his fingers. He catches the ball and gets a 1st down, Arizona never gets such an amazing scoring opportunity.

Brandon Lloyd also dropped a big 3rd down pass in the 4th quarter.

The Patriots didn't execute. The offensive line was toyed with. Tom Brady wasn't his absolute best. I mentioned Lloyd and Welker. The Patriots couldn't get anything going on the ground. And all the big plays were made by the Cardinals.

But Arizona tried so hard to give the Patriots chances in this game. The fumble by Ryan Williams is a perfect example.

As a team, the Pats didn't do enough to win. I don't think it's very complicated. I don't think it's something to worry too much about. It's something that can be isolated to this one game. Hopefully.

The Pats play the Ravens in Baltimore next Sunday night. Both teams are 1-1 and will be hungry to avoid going 1-2.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Welcome Back, Patriots

Yesterday our TVs were once again blessed with a sports team that tries, that cares, and that wins. It's been a long summer for sports fans in New England. Welcome back, Patriots.

Yesterday's 34-13 victory illustrated three major differences between the 2011 Patriots and the 2012 edition. We saw a wide receiver wearing #85 be a reliable target. We saw a defense capable of big plays and stops. And we saw an explosive running game.

Brandon Lloyd caught 5 passes for 69 yards. It took Chad Ochojohnson three games to catch 5 passes last year. Lloyd's 5 receptions are a third of what Ochojohnson had last year, and 69 yards is exactly 25% of Ochojonson's production in 2011 (276 yards). Lloyd made one mistake and it cost the Pats a touchdown, but his other catches demonstrated his skill as a receiver and his understanding of the Patriots' offense.

How many fantasy football people will be picking up the Patriots' DST this week? The Patriots had 2 sacks, an interception, and a forced fumble plus a recovery and touchdown. Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower are freaks. But they also stayed at home, did their job, and let the big plays come to them. The defense completely eliminated Tennessee's running game. Chris Johnson had 11 carries for 4 yards.

The Pats outrushed the Titans 162 to 20, and the main reason behind that was Stevan Ridley, who ran for 125 yards on 21 carries (6.0 yards per carry) and a touchdown. His first career 100 yard game. He was explosive once he got past the line of scrimmage. Five of his rushes were for 10+ yards, and four were 15+.

Having a playmaking running back is something we didn't see in 2011. Having defensive weapons making an impact is something we didn't see in 2011.

But there were some things that carried over from the previous season. Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski being brilliant, for example. Both caught 6 passes, both caught a touchdown, but both didn't execute their trademark celebrations from last year. Hernandez didn't make it rain and Gronk fumbled his mega-spike.

Another carryover was a shaky secondary. The Titans did the Pats a favor every time they ran the ball or threw dink and dump passes. The defense is still vulnerable to 8-15 yard curls and other basic mid-range routes.

Hopefully an improved pass rush can help deflect attacks on this weakness. And on offense, perhaps an improved running game can chew up clock and eat up yardage so opponents won't have enough time to exploit the secondary.

In any case, I'm just glad it's football season, the Pats are 1-0, and sports are once again fun to watch. The Cardinals come to Gillette Stadium next Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Wade Payne

Why I Think the Patriots Cut Stallworth and Gaffney

When the Patriots piled their plate high and deep with WRs, I thought Donte Stallworth was a long shot to make the team but figured Jabar Gaffney would likely be on the roster. Gaffney has worked well with Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels in the past, and he did well in 2011, finishing with 947 receiving yards for the Redskins.

I figured the WR depth chart would be Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Deion Branch, and Donte Stallworth. I wasn't shocked when Stallworth got cut, but parting ways with Gaffney surprised me.

Until I thought of the offensive line.

If there were a Moneyball 2 about football, I think the statistician Jonah Hill played would be obsessed with one number: Throwing Time. The amount of time a QB has to throw the football.

And judging from the preseason games, Tom Brady won't have that much time to throw. It won't be like 2007 with Stallworth, Gaffney, and of course Randy Moss. When Brady had an eternity to find a receiver, and those receivers had an eternity to go downfield.

Tom Brady simply won't have the time necessary for vertical receivers like Gaffney and Stallworth to go downfield. He'll need shifty mid-range and underneath receivers like Welker, Branch, and the tight-ends. Guys who can get open quickly, and whose diversity present matchup problems for defenses. Brady can spot those problems pre-snap and get rid of the ball before the pressure envelops him.

Carrying WRs who primarily go deep is a waste of roster spots. There won't be enough Throwing Time to consistently go deep. Plus with the tight-ends, how often will more than three WRs be on the field for the Pats? Stallworth and Gaffney were unnecessary parts of the Patriots' offensive machine.

Patriots Make Multiple Moves

The Patriots went a bit nuts this weekend, signing just about everyone who was very good back in 2010. The big buy was Brandon Lloyd, the former Ram, former Bronco, former Bear, former Redskin. Lloyd had expressed a strong interest in reuniting with Josh McDaniels, and it appears as though that interest was mutual. In 2010 under McDaniels, Lloyd caught 77 passes for 1,448 yards and 11 TDs. Last year, split between Denver and St. Louis, Lloyd caught 60 passes for 966 yards and 5 scores.

Lloyd adds an outside receiver which the Patriots desperately needed to compliment Welker in the slot as well as the tight-ends. Now the Patriots can present even more matchup dilemmas for opposing defenses. Imagine the headaches that defensive coordinators will endure as they gameplan to cover Welker, Gronkowski, Lloyd, and Hernandez.

With Lloyd, Chad Ochojohnson is likely going to be issued his release, along with a map that has a very detailed walking route out of the Stadium and toward Route 1. We know he struggles with routes.

The Patriots also signed WR Anthony Gonzalez. The former Colt has been victimized by injuries just as he was becoming one of Peyton Manning's secondary options behind Wayne, Clark, and Collie. He hurt his right knee in '09, and his left PCL in 2010. He did play last year, he just didn't catch a pass.

This is a classic low-risk/medium-reward acquisition. Gonzalez can play the slot, maybe be a 3rd or 4th WR option in some formations. He can fill the role that we thought Julian Edelman might fill.

The Pats added to their defense as well. They signed Trevor Scott, an OLB/DE who tallied 7 sacks in 2009. He injured his ACL in 2010, but came back last year. He's good in pass-rushing situations. And like Gonzalez, he's a low-risk/medium-reward guy. The type of player that comes with a "but," and a few "ifs." He's good, but he's been injured, and if he's healthy he'll do well.

I'm excited about Lloyd. He wants to be here, he's proven to be successful under McDaniels, and he doesn't have to be a Pro Bowler to positively contribute to the offense. He's 30 years old and should have some solid years left. And since he's worked with a McDaniels playbook before, we don't need to have Ochocincophobia about him.

Gonzalez and Scott come with bad medical histories, but they're both 27, and they can both find productive roles on this team. The Patriots lacked depth at wide receiver and Gonzalez provides that. They needed an outside guy capable of applying QB pressure. Scott could be that guy.