Patriots Again Wait Until Halftime to Start Playing

The Patriots continue to dig holes for themselves, then climb out of them and finish on top. Just barely. If not for 106 yards of Stephen Gostkowski field goals, the Patriots would have fallen to 8-4.

Tom Brady's performance was the biggest difference between halves. In the first two quarters he was inaccurate. He wasn't driving the ball, he was tossing it. He lobbed a pass intended for Gronkowski that was a real turkey. It was intercepted by Johnathan Joseph. That led to a Houston field goal.

In the second half Brady found a rhythm. He spread the ball to 8 different receivers, but most of the time he targeted Gronk and Edelman (12 targets each). Amendola and Vereen were his secondary targets (5 and 6 targets, respectively).

Gronkowski's return to the lineup has turned Tom Brady into a different thrower. Gronk can catch anything near him. So many balls that would be uncatchable for other players are catchable for Gronk. NFL officials, are you paying attention?

The impact of Shane Vereen's return has been less obvious, but still important. Almost all of his catches are key plays in the drive. He finally caught his first TD of the season in this game. In 4 games he's caught 23 passes for 183 yards. All other Patriot RBs have combined for 27 catches and 178 yards. Vereen adds another dimension to this offense.

As the offense has taken steps forward, the defense has taken steps back. They're struggling to stop the run, they're struggling on third down, and now they're allowing big plays.

I'll praise the defense for stopping Houston twice in the 4th quarter. Then again, Andre Johnson helped them out with a drop. And these aren't the Broncos or the Saints. These are the Texans. And the Patriots allowed 31 points.

With no Wilfork and no Mayo, the running defense probably won't improve. And I don't know how many times I can endure seeing Dont'a Hightower wandering aimlessly around the field until I snap. Hightower just seems sluggish and casual, like he's playing a post Thanksgiving dinner game of two hand touch with his family.

The offense must continue to produce for this team to win. Sound familiar? One difference between this situation and years past is that this is a much less finesse kind of offense. Gronkowski has always been a beast. Now you add big runners like Blount and Develin. I think Edelman is tough for his size too. This is a physical offense.

The Patriots host the 4-8 Browns next week. They can clinch an AFC East title with a win and a Miami loss/tie.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Belichick Shows Superior Logic and Superior Balls by Kicking in OT

Sunday night Bill Belichick made a coaching decision that confounded the crowd at Gillette Stadium and puzzled even his own players. By kicking to start overtime, Belichick went against conventional strategy. He took a chance by taking the wind. It worked out. And like all coaching decisions, it worked out because the players did their job once the coach made the call.

I would have elected to receive. But I get the logic behind Belichick's decision. And the more I think about it, the more I like it.

Let's say the wind had the following impacts on field goal attempts, based on what happened with warm-up kicks:

Into the wind, a 40 yard field goal would be considered ambitious but possible.

With the wind, a 55 yard field goal would be considered ambitious but possible.

So into the wind you'd need to get the ball to the 23 yard line, with the wind you'd need to get it to the 38.

The Patriots kicked off to the Broncos, almost assured of a touchback. So Manning and the Broncos would start at their 20, needing to move the ball 80 yards for a touchdown or 57 yards for a field goal.

During regulation, the Broncos had an 80 yard drive and a 70 yard drive. They had 10 drives under 50 yards, and 9 drives under 25 yards. Denver's 70 yard drive was with the wind, their 80 yard drive was against it.

In OT, if Denver drives 80 yards for a TD, the game's over.

If the Broncos kick a field goal, they need to drive 57 yards to have a reasonable chance, and then they'd kick off to the Patriots, who would probably get it at the 20, although with the wind they might get it with a shorter field. Let's just say the 20.

Down 3 and needing to match a field goal, starting from the 20 the Patriots would need to drive 42 yards to get within range. The Patriots had three 40+ yard drives during regulation, and seven drives of 30+. They'd also be able to use all 4 downs to move the ball.

If the Broncos try a field goal and miss, the Patriots might have an even shorter field to work with.

If the Broncos fail to get within field goal range and punt, then the Patriots are in fantastic shape. They have the wind, they have less distance to get to field goal range. Even if they fail to attempt a field goal, they're in position to give Denver poor field position, especially with the wind helping the Patriots punter (which is what happened).

The Patriots defense did its job in preventing Denver from scoring on the opening drive. But had they done even better, and held Denver to a 3 and out, and forced a 40 yard punt (long for a punter kicking into the wind) from the 20, then the Patriots would have gotten the ball back on their 40, only 22 yards from reasonable field goal range.

After each team had a possession, the overtime became a field position battle. And even though Denver had an advantage with odd-numbered possessions, Manning had to throw into the wind, the Broncos had to punt into the wind, the kicker would have to kick into the wind.

For this edge, Belichick risked a first possession touchdown, and the game ending with his best players touching the ball.

Even if you disagree with it, you must respect the the balls necessary to take the risk. Belichick has audacity. And many coaches that struggle to reach that next level of success often fail to do so because they play it too safe, they play prevent defenses, they hand the ball off to Knowshon Moreno when they're up 24-0.

There was logic behind Belichick's decision. We can debate the soundness of that logic all we want. What's not up for debate is that Belichick is fearless. He makes decisions and doesn't care what anyone thinks, doesn't worry about them failing. He's bold. He's daring.

That's one of his defining characteristics, and one of the reasons he's been so successful.

Patriots Win Game, Hats, and T-Shirts

The Patriots have now won 10 AFC East titles with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. This franchise won 5 divisional titles before Belichick and Brady. The team's total has tripled to 15 since then. What was once exceptional and rare, has become expected and routine.

It's just a step, though. They don't award rings or throw parades for divisional titles.

One positive to take from this win is that the Patriots can rush the ball. Maybe not at will. But when the opportunity to move the ball on the ground is there, they're capable of capitalizing. Steven Ridley's 19 carries for 71 yards put him past the 1,000 mark on the season. He accumulated a good chunk of those yards on a clock killing drive in the 4th. That drive secured the victory.

Another positive is that despite injuries in every department, this team is able to find ways to win. As not-pretty as this win was, it was without a Pro Bowl tight-end, two offensive linemen, a talented rookie defensive end, another good defensive end, and so on.

Some negatives include Stephen Gostkowski. He's missed 3 of his last 7 field goal attempts. He's 80.1% on the year which is 21st in the NFL. All 5 of his misses have been between 30 and 49 yards, so these are kicks that an NFL kicker should make.

And don't forget that the Pats are a 42 yard Gostkowski miss from being 10-2 instead of 9-3.

Speaking of inconsistency, the offense that spoiled us with 40+ point games struggled to move the ball at times yesterday. Give significant credit to Miami's pass rush for that.

For this team to be successful, everyone needs to do their job. The field goal kicker needs to kick field goals. The wide receiver needs to catch the ball. The defensive players need to prevent points.

When everyone does their job this is the best team in the NFL. From this point on, it's all a question of execution.

Pats host the Texans next Monday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/John Bazemore

Patriots Commit Cardinal Sins

You can point to two special teams plays and say "Here's where the Pats lost the game." The blocked punt that led to an Arizona touchdown, and of course Stephen Gostkowski's missed field goal.

It's not so simple. This was a team loss. The Patriots lost this game, quite thoroughly. Not just a kicker, not just a backup receiver that failed to execute a block.

The play before Zoltan Mesko's punt was blocked, Wes Welker let a ball slip through all 10 of his fingers. He catches the ball and gets a 1st down, Arizona never gets such an amazing scoring opportunity.

Brandon Lloyd also dropped a big 3rd down pass in the 4th quarter.

The Patriots didn't execute. The offensive line was toyed with. Tom Brady wasn't his absolute best. I mentioned Lloyd and Welker. The Patriots couldn't get anything going on the ground. And all the big plays were made by the Cardinals.

But Arizona tried so hard to give the Patriots chances in this game. The fumble by Ryan Williams is a perfect example.

As a team, the Pats didn't do enough to win. I don't think it's very complicated. I don't think it's something to worry too much about. It's something that can be isolated to this one game. Hopefully.

The Pats play the Ravens in Baltimore next Sunday night. Both teams are 1-1 and will be hungry to avoid going 1-2.

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AP Photo