Patriots got the big score and the big stop when they needed to

When was the last time we saw a Patriots team score when they needed to score at the end of a playoff game, AND get a stop when they needed a stop? Actually, let's give the Patriots' defense credit for 1.5 stops, holding the Ravens to a field goal the drive before Brady and the offense drove for the game-winning touchdown.

In the first Super Bowl against the Giants, the Pats got the score, but not the stop at the end.

In the 2006 AFC Championship game against Indy, the Pats couldn't score touchdowns in the 4th quarter to win the game. They couldn't get stops either.

So as frightening as this game started, both sides of the ball ultimately did their job.

The game-winning drive was vintage Brady. He distributed the ball to 6 different receivers. He ran for a first down. And he threw a beautiful pass to Brandon LaFell for the touchdown. Danny Amendola made the biggest play of the series on 3rd and 6, breaking a tackle, and extending the ball forward to secure the first down.

The previous drive, the defense made a goal-to-go stand to hold Baltimore to 3 points. Cris Collinsworth correctly said "The difference between a field goal and touchdown here may be the game." It was.

On Baltimore's next drive, the Ravens moved the ball, but not in the big chunks they wanted to. Time was ticking away. And a Joe Flacco jump ball was finally hauled in by a Pats DB. Live by the chuck, die by the chuck.

It's unfortunate that the Patriots were in a position where they needed both a score and 1.5 stops to win. The Ravens dominated the game for the first 10 minutes, and I was getting flashbacks of past playoff embarrassments at the hands of the Ravens and Jets.

But this time the Pats had Rob Gronkowski. He made 2 big plays on the Patriots' first scoring drive: a 16 yard reception on 3rd and 8, and that big 46 yard gain. Gronk finished with 7 catches for 108 yards and a TD. And who knows how much his presence on the field, and the attention he drew from the defense, helped other receivers get open.

I've often criticized the Patriots for trying to be too clever on offense. In the 3rd quarter they had just the right amount of cleverness. The Ravens couldn't keep up with who was an eligible receiver and who was ineligible. Vereen was ineligible when Brady threw to Hoomanawanui. But the play before, Hoomanawanui was the ineligible one. You didn't hear it on TV, but the ref announced "Number 47 is ineligible, don't cover 47." Then Hooman was eligible on the next play, and Vereen was announced ineligible. The Ravens got confused, and John Harbaugh threw a hissy fit. Harbaugh called it deception, but it was lack of attention. To quote Robert the Bruce's diseased father in Braveheart "You let yourself be deceived."

That drive ended in a touchdown. And we all remember the trick play a few minutes later, Brady to Edelman to Amendola. It was the whitest touchdown in the NFL since the color barrier was broken in 1946 by Kenny Washington and Woody Strode. It probably aggravated Harbaugh too, since it was another example of deceptive play. Harbaugh is probably lobbying the NFL to outlaw play-action as well.

The Patriots won the second half 21-10. They've been an excellent second half team this season. Since the Chiefs debacle, the Patriots have outscored opponents 204-104 in the second half, allowing an average of 8 points, and scoring an average of 15.7. Going forward, it would be nice if the Patriots didn't NEED an amazing second half in order to win.

The Patriots outscored the Colts 28-10 in the second half of their Week 11 meeting. And that's who they'll play in the AFC Championship game on Sunday.

Photo Credit: Jim Rogash/Getty Images

We're on to worrying about Baltimore

Baltimore. The Ravens. Dark wings, dark thoughts. Painful memories...

January 10, 2010 (which will be 5 years ago to the day on Saturday), Ray Rice abusing the Patriots like they were engaged to him, the Ravens scoring 24 in the 1st quarter, Brady throwing 3 picks.

January 20, 2013, the last meaningful game the Patriots lost at Gillette Stadium. Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith taking advantage of Aqib Talib's injury. Joe Flacco throwing 3 TDs while Brady had a QB rating of 62.3.

Even January 22, 2012, when only a missed field goal prevented the game from going into overtime.

So yeah, there are reasons to not be thrilled to face the Ravens. Even though they're the 6th seed. Even though they were 6-6 this season against non-NFC South teams.

Joe Flacco's postseason resume is another cause for concern. Of the other AFC playoff QBs, only he and Roethlisberger have a fearsome playoff pedigree. Flacco is also a proven winner at Gillette. Hell, he's been significantly better than Brady in playoff games in Foxborough the last 5 years.

Psychological scars and matchup issues aside, if you can't beat the #6 seed, at home, then you don't deserve to win a Super Bowl. It's as simple as that. So while this is a relatively tough opponent for the Patriots to face, this is football, this is winter, it's supposed to be tough. It was tough in 2001 facing the Raiders, Steelers, and Rams. It was tough in 2003 and 2004 facing the Colts, Titans, and Eagles.

So let's move on from the past and focus on Saturday's game.

I'm going to be short and sweet in my analysis. The Patriots need to avoid the three Fs:

Fucking around
Fucking up
Fumbling (and throwing fucking picks)

The Pats can't play mediocre football for a half or 3 quarters, then hope to put it all together at the end. The clock in a playoff game moves unbelievably fast when you're playing from behind. So no fucking around, no waiting until after halftime to play your best.

Another thing the Pats can't fuck around with is play calling. Baltimore isn't good at defending the pass and were 4th best defending the run. So yes, Josh McDaniels, the Ravens will be expecting you to throw the ball. And that's okay. It's okay to do what they expect, because the reason they expect it is because they're not good at stopping it.

When Josh McDaniels was a young child, I bet he poured sugar on slugs, because he figured the slugs expected salt.

No fucking up starts with not letting Tom Brady get killed. Don't run plays that require Brady to sit in the pocket for 30 seconds while a receiver makes a double move or a crossing route develops. Short quick passes will keep Brady on his feet. Not doing so would be a colossal fuck up.

No Wes Welker style drops. No missed field goals. No botched snaps. No Patrick Chung fake punts. No blown coverages or missed tackles that result in 40 yard gains. No unnecessary penalties.

Last but certainly not least, protecting the football is of paramount importance, more than in most games. In the three recent playoff games against Baltimore, the Pats turned the ball over 10 times. Baltimore only turned it over 3 times. The Pats don't need to win the turnover battle to win the game. But if they don't lose the turnover stat, then it will be nearly impossible for the Ravens to win the game.

As physical and tough as the Ravens are, as well as Flacco has played in Foxborough, this is still the Patriots' game to lose. If they avoid getting cute, play a full 60 minutes, don't make massive mistakes, and keep the ball in their hands, they should win.

My prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 17

Photo Credit:
Don Wright/Associated Press

Patriots Get Hats and T-Shirts for Christmas

Throughout the week, the doom and gloom, sky is falling, Chicken Little, bah humbug Patriots fans and pundits out there were terrified of the Ravens. But everyone (myself included) overlooked two facts:

1. The Ravens offense failed to score a touchdown against Detroit, and only a miraculous field goal gave them a win.

2. Joe Flacco would be playing hurt.

The Ravens, particularly Flacco, played a horrendous game Sunday. Along with his bad knee, he seemed to play with a strained decision making muscle in his brain. He had a few token deep chucks. Other times he didn't notice open receivers. It was ugly.

His teammates joined in the ugliness. Penalties at the worst times, dropped passes. A variety of stocking stuffers given as gifts to the Patriots.

The Patriots offense didn't do well either. There's plenty of coal to be given to that side of the ball. They were successful on the ground, but for some reason went away from the run in the second half. Almost as if they were trying to preemptively adjust to Baltimore's adjustments to their success. Josh McDaniels' over-cleverness strikes again.

On the good list, LeGarrette Blount ran strong and piled up 76 yards on 17 carries. Stevan Ridley protected the ball and ran for 54 physical yards. As a team the Patriots rushed for 142, averaging 4.8 per carry.

Here's an alarming stat. The Pats averaged 4.8 yards per rush, and only 6.6 yards per pass. And that doesn't include sacks. Including sacks they averaged 5.6 yards per pass play. Brady was 14 for 26. He scattered a few great throws. He made a few very bad throws. Edelman caught 7 passes, or half of Brady's completions. Nobody else caught more than 2.

Julian Edelman now has 96 catches this season, for 991 yards. He's Santa Brady's chief elf.

Losing Shane Vereen to a groin injury early hurt the offense. Like the reindeer team losing Dasher.

Thankfully the defense stepped up for the Pats. Misfit elf Dont'a (similar to dentist) Hightower actually made a good play in coverage. And that resulted in an interception.

The defensive star was Logan Ryan. Two interceptions and 3 passes defended for the rookie from Rutgers. "Rudolph" Ryan led the way for the defense.

The Ravens turned the ball over 4 times. It was like the football was a Yankee Swap present that nobody wanted. The Patriots did their part to protect the football and take advantage of those turnovers.

Both teams also benefited from soft pass interference penalties in the end zone. That issue deserves its own post to discuss. If not for those calls, the Patriots offense might have looked even worse, and the Ravens might still be mired in an 8 quarter scoreless drought.

The Patriots clinched the AFC East before the game kicked off, thanks to Buffalo beating Miami. That's 11 division titles for Brady and Belichick. The Patriots are currently the #2 seed, which they can clinch (along with the bye) if they beat Buffalo next week. That game has been flexed to 4:25pm. They can gain the #1 seed with a win and a Denver loss to Oakland. Stranger things have happened this season.

Merry Christmas, Happy Festivus, Merry Bradymas, and Happy Hanubelichickkah!

Photo Credit:
USA Today Sports Images

The Ravens Win

I found myself confused at the end of this game. Initially, I wanted the 49ers won win, because I didn't want Ray Lewis or Joe Flacco to achieve any further glory. But then, as the 49ers played the first half from a Foxhole, I lost all respect for them. So I was forced to choose between a team I didn't like, and a team I didn't respect.

The Ravens won, and they deserved it. It's remarkable how one brother could be so much more aggressive than the other. Sigmund Freud would have a field day.

One thing the Ravens had on offense that the Patriots didn't was a strong receiver. Rob Gronkowski was out. And the Patriots' WR corps was small and not as physical as Baltimore's DBs. Meanwhile, Baltimore's receivers outmatched the Patriots' safeties.

Imagine what would happen if Anquan Boldin were on the Patriots roster. How much would Brady rely on him? How many receptions, how many TDs would he haul in? The Patriots could really use a large WR that can win battles in difficult situations.

Baltimore deserved this. As much as we can mock Ray Lewis for consuming deer antler velvet like some drunken and lonely Mainer, just about everyone in the NFL is on PEDs. So let he who supports a team without sin cast the first stone.

The Ravens played a game of football. The 49ers tried to play the Super Bowl. And in doing so they failed. The 49ers were conservative, tight, nervous, locked-up, not aggressive. They dug their foxholes from kickoff to the final whistle. And that's why they lost. The Ravens played football, and played it well.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Marcio Sanchez

It's Hard Not to Be Ridiculously Optimistic About the Patriots

I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high. I'm trying to stay grounded the week before the AFC Championship game. I'm reminding myself of the 2009 playoffs when Baltimore came here and beat the Pats. Despite the effort to prevent over-optimism, I just can't help myself. Here's why:

The Ravens have played 9+ quarters of playoff football in 2 weeks. Their key defensive players are old, and will have to keep pace with a frequently up-tempo Patriots offense, which has played 4 quarters in 2 weeks. At some point attrition must take its toll.

Joe Flacco is Baltimore's quarterback. He's hit or miss, sometimes great, sometimes completely ineffective. The Ravens are good enough to win without him (See the aforementioned 2009 playoff game against New England), but after two great playoff performances, he's overdue to crap the bed.

The Patriots have a much better secondary than in their Week 3 loss to Baltimore. Flacco threw for 382 in that 31-30 Ravens win. That was when Devin McCourty was a cornerback, not a safety. Aqib Talib was a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. And Alfonzo Dennard was out with a hamstring injury. Baltimore had 10 pass plays of 20+ yards in that game, 4 of 30+ yards, and 2 40+ yarders. Not to mention a 27 yard pass interference penalty on McCourty.

Now, with Talib and Dennard as the corners, and McCourty as a safety, things are much better. The defense keeps the play in front of them. They tackle well. Talib can play man coverage. Which is more likely, Flacco throwing for 380 yards? Or being intercepted by McCourty?

I'm not being a Dan Shauhgnessy and guaranteeing a steamroll victory. I actually think the game will be close until the 4th quarter. And the Patriots can certainly lose. They can fumble the ball, miss tackles, get confused on coverage, and make enough mistakes to allow Baltimore to win.

But if the Patriots play at or near their best, then how can Baltimore win? How can Joe Flacco and a tired defense prevail? It seems impossible.

Ravens 31, Patriots 30

Regardless of whether or not that field goal was good, and despite the amateurish officiating that seemed to define the game, the Patriots are the most responsible for their loss to Baltimore last night.

And it wasn't the defense. Even though the defense allowed Baltimore to move the ball on that game-winning drive, even though the defense allowed the Ravens to stay in the game, it was the offense that didn't hold its side of the bargain.

The Patriots offense had so many chances to end this game. And they didn't execute. When the Pats' defense stopped the Ravens on 4th & 1, the offense didn't do much. They were up by 9, with about 10 minutes left, and a chance to make it a 16 point game. Or even a 12 point game. 6 plays and 3:21 later and Baltimore had the ball back.

And the drive before that, the Patriots drove to the Baltimore 2, and only managed a field goal.

The Patriots made 5 trips to the Red Zone and only managed 3 touchdowns.

There were other missed opportunities. Joe Flacco should have been picked off 3 times, not just once. Devin McCourty bungled those. He was also burnt more than an Irishman's skin in the Sahara with no sunscreen. I don't know how such horrific burns don't appear on the injury report.

The play-calling last night was, at times, infuriating. The direct-snap to Danny Woodhead, then end-around to Julian Edelman was one of the most enraging moments of my life. It's 2nd & 6, you're moving the ball with traditional plays, so you open up Boise State's playbook, and get all cute and clever? Why?

The Ravens had been penetrating into the backfield all night until that point, and McDaniels/Belichick/Brady gave them a chance to blow up a play and end a drive.

I get the feeling with this offense that they're trying to win a certain way, instead of just trying to win any way possible. These tricks and gadgets are for the Bad News Bears or for the softball team from Camp Misfit when the super-athletes from across the lake come to play them.

If you think you need to try these tricky type of plays in order to win, then you don't have faith in your offense to simply execute the simple.

In that drive, the Patriots already tried an end-around and got a 1st down out of it. So Baltimore was already keenly aware of such a possibility. More traditional plays had been working, so why risk a big loss on 2nd & 6?

Sometimes you can think yourself so smart that you do stupid things and don't even notice it.

Anyway, I'll talk about the refs in a separate post, because it's a big enough issue in and of itself. The refs didn't cause the Patriots to lose, the Patriots caused this loss themselves. Although it's strange how Rob Gronkowski gets called for holding at least once a game. Are these all these replacement refs related to Bibi Jones or something?

Anyway, the Patriots should have won the last 2 games and didn't. That's good news/bad news. The good news is this team has talent enough to be 3-0. The bad news is, they haven't demonstrated an ability to consistently turn that talent into victory. They haven't executed, and consequently they'e 1-2, and below .500 for the first time in 145 games.

And you know what, you can't help but feel sentimental for Torrey Smith. He had a brilliant game only a few hours after tragedy completely changed his life. Logos and jerseys aside, I'm glad he had a good game.

The Pats are in Buffalo next Sunday. The Bills, along with the Jets, are ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East standings. I just puked in my mouth.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

The Ravens Don't Scare Me

I'm not guaranteeing a Patriot victory. I'm sure this game will be close, and maybe the Ravens will make a few plays, Welker will drop a pass, Gostkowski will miss a kick, and Baltimore will win. Shit happens, some players execute, some players fail. They're all human.

But there's nothing about the Ravens that has me especially nervous or anxious about this game. As good as their defense is, and as much as Tom Brady has struggled against them in the past, one unavoidable fact remains...

Their quarterback is Joe Flacco.

I'm not impressed. If the Patriots can contain Ray Rice (the way they did Chris Johnson in Week 1), then the game rests on the shoulders of the man from Deleware. The guy whose QB Rating was 18th in the NFL last year, whose completion percentage was 26th, who was 24th in yards per attempt.

I'm not scared.

And with guys like Chandler Jones chasing Flacco around all day, I'm even more not scared.

Brady still struggles with Ed Reed and the Ravens' defense, so I don't expect him to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs. But he won't have to. Because the Ravens' QB is Joe Flacco.

Patriots 24, Ravens 20

Going to Indianapolis

The defense won this game. The defense and Billy Cundiff. It certainly wasn't the offense that won this game for the Pats. While I don't think Brady "sucked pretty badly," he wasn't good. The Patriots lost the turnover battle, Flacco in many ways had a better game than Brady, the Ravens accumulated more yards, and held the ball longer. But the Pats defense made some big plays in big moments and that's why the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

The defense did allow a pair of token touchdown drives, struggling to contain Rice and giving up chunks of yardage in the air.

But when Woodhead fumbled a kickoff return on the 28, the defense held Baltimore to a field goal (which gave the Ravens a 4 point lead instead of an 8 point lead). Spikes' interception might have been a big play if Brady didn't throw a pick a few seconds later.

In the 4th, the Ravens had a 3rd and 3 on the Patriots' 30 (48 yard field goal range). Wilfork stuffed Ray Rice for a 3 yard loss, and Baltimore was forced to go for it on 4th and 6 instead of kicking a field goal. The Pats did not allow the Ravens to convert that 4th down thanks to good coverage and pressure from the aforementioned Wilfork.

The offense had a chance run out the clock late but went 3 and out. The defense did allow a big 29 yard Anquan Boldin reception, which put the Ravens in field goal range. Then Sterling Moore saved the game by breaking up a pass in the end zone, then deflected the next pass. So at the very least, the defense preserved a tie.

Billy Cundiff did the rest.

The Patriots' offense wasn't bad all game. They just couldn't come up with many big plays. They struggled in the Red Zone, the Ravens got timely pressure on Brady, then there were the turnovers. Brady threw 2 picks, he also had one called back because of an illegal contact penalty, and he threw another one after an encroachment flag. He was not that sharp. He also missed a wide open Gronkowski and what would have been a touchdown in the 1st quarter. He missed a number of passes, and frequently threw into double coverage.

The Pats' best player had his worst game of the season, but because of Wilfork, Spikes, Moore, and Ellis, the Pats still won. And Brady will get a chance to redeem himself against the Giants.

Longest two weeks of the year. Let's party.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

Patriots/Ravens Preview

This is the 6th time the Pats have been in the AFC Championship in the Belichick-Brady era. Think about that. 6 times since 2000. Before the B-B epoch (1960-1999), the Pats had reached the AFC/AFL title game a total of 3 times.

Last week, the Patriots were fortunate enough to face the #12 seed in the playoff tournament. They also played the worst QB in the playoffs. And maybe that good fortune has extended into the AFC Championship game. Joe Flacco is the worst QB remaining in the playoffs. 20 touchdowns and 12 picks in the regular season. An 80.9 rating, which puts him 18th in the NFL, between Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer.

But you don't need a great QB to win a playoff game. Just ask Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Or ask the Ravens, for that matter. The Ravens have an excellent chance in this game, although it all depends on one thing. Can they get to Brady?

The Ravens were tied for 3rd in sacks with 48. Suggs had 14 on his own. They can get pressure on Brady. Which means the Patriots will have to rely on guys like Welker and Gronkowski to get open quickly. They'll also need that offensive line to play one of its best games of the season.

If the Ravens do get pressure on Brady and keep the Patriots' offense in check, they can run the ball, they can play possession football, and they can squeeze out a win.

It's tough to respect Flacco, though. It seems like if the Patriots go up by even 4, then Flacco will find some way to screw up.

This game will be tough for Brady and the offense to rack up an absurd number of points. But it'll also be tough for Flacco and the Ravens to do similar. I think the Patriots will win this in a tight contest.

27-20 Pats.