Patriots Stampede Colts on the Ground

For the 8th time in the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots are in the NFL's final four. That's 8 times in 12 seasons (2001-2007, 2009-2013). Enjoy these moments, Patriots fans, because times like these are rare.

The game wasn't as lopsided as the 43-22 score suggests. There were periods that the Colts were just a play away from gaining control. They never made that play. All the big plays were made by the Patriots, or went the Pats' way.

Even the safety after a high-snap on a punt was a positive result of a Patriot miscue. Had punter Ryan Allen been tackled inside the 5, the Colts probably would have soon scored a touchdown, if not almost certainly a field goal. Instead Indy was awarded with 2 points, the Patriots got to punt from the 20, and Indy put together a long drive that ended with a turnover. If not for the safety, a 21-10 game probably would have become a 21-17 game.

Here's some earth-shattering analysis: the Patriots won this game on the ground. LeGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley, and Shane Vereen combined for 233 yards on 43 carries (5.4 per carry). They demoralized the Colts defense in the first half. In the second half, they castrated them. This success on the ground set up play-action, which allowed for some big plays in the air. The Colts also brought their safeties close to the line, which allowed Blount to score a 73-yard TD in the 4th, because once he got past the first level there was nothing but green fieldturf ahead of him. A green carpet, if you will, to the end zone. To victory.

There was one drive in the first half that especially reminded me of Corey Dillon and the 2004 Patriots. The Pats ran the ball six straight plays, achieving two first downs. Then they went play action, which the Colts bit on, and Julian Edelman made a 27-yard reception. Eventually Blount finished the drive with a touchdown. His 4 TDs set a new franchise postseason record. Curtis Martin was the previous record holder with 3.

If you look at Brady's numbers (13 of 25, 198 yards, 0 TDs) one might think he had a bad day. I thought he played quite well. He made some plays, especially on 3rd down (Pats converted 11 of 18). He protected the ball. He got rid of it when he had to. He made big plays downfield (e.g. Danny Amendola's 53-yard reception). He wasn't just a "game manager" handing it off and making the occasional safe pass play.

He was also an adequate holder. And Stephen Gostkowski was a good punter. This team does not allow injuries or change to faze them. Shit happens, do your job, even if it's a job you haven't done in years or have never done.

The defense had excellent timing. They gave up a few big plays and a few long drives. However those were all when the Patriots had control of the game. The defense didn't allow Indy to seize control of the game or build any momentum.

And the D made some big plays themselves. Alfonzo Dennard's interception on the opening drive being the most obvious example.

Jamie Collins made some of the biggest plays. When it was 21-12 his 3rd and goal coverage of Coby Fleener in the end zone forced Indy to settle for a field goal. When it was 29-22 he sacked Andrew Luck for a loss of 8 and the Colts eventually went 3 and out. When it was 36-22 his interception effectively ended the game.

Collins' timing was perfect. He made big plays at key times that prevented the Colts from building momentum to mount a comeback. And he made a big play in the 4th quarter that sealed a victory. A sack, 2 tackles for a loss, 3 QB hits, a pass defended, and an interception. It's just one standout game from the rookie but his athleticism is obvious. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does for the team in 2014.

Of course 2013 isn't over yet, not for the Patriots. The Pats have another AFC Championship game to play. This time against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The weather forecast for Sunday's game in Denver is partly cloudy with a high of 55 and a low of 33. This week's forecast for the New England region is partly optimistic with a 100% chance of trivial speculation and excited trash talk.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

It's Hard Not to Be Ridiculously Optimistic About the Patriots

I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high. I'm trying to stay grounded the week before the AFC Championship game. I'm reminding myself of the 2009 playoffs when Baltimore came here and beat the Pats. Despite the effort to prevent over-optimism, I just can't help myself. Here's why:

The Ravens have played 9+ quarters of playoff football in 2 weeks. Their key defensive players are old, and will have to keep pace with a frequently up-tempo Patriots offense, which has played 4 quarters in 2 weeks. At some point attrition must take its toll.

Joe Flacco is Baltimore's quarterback. He's hit or miss, sometimes great, sometimes completely ineffective. The Ravens are good enough to win without him (See the aforementioned 2009 playoff game against New England), but after two great playoff performances, he's overdue to crap the bed.

The Patriots have a much better secondary than in their Week 3 loss to Baltimore. Flacco threw for 382 in that 31-30 Ravens win. That was when Devin McCourty was a cornerback, not a safety. Aqib Talib was a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. And Alfonzo Dennard was out with a hamstring injury. Baltimore had 10 pass plays of 20+ yards in that game, 4 of 30+ yards, and 2 40+ yarders. Not to mention a 27 yard pass interference penalty on McCourty.

Now, with Talib and Dennard as the corners, and McCourty as a safety, things are much better. The defense keeps the play in front of them. They tackle well. Talib can play man coverage. Which is more likely, Flacco throwing for 380 yards? Or being intercepted by McCourty?

I'm not being a Dan Shauhgnessy and guaranteeing a steamroll victory. I actually think the game will be close until the 4th quarter. And the Patriots can certainly lose. They can fumble the ball, miss tackles, get confused on coverage, and make enough mistakes to allow Baltimore to win.

But if the Patriots play at or near their best, then how can Baltimore win? How can Joe Flacco and a tired defense prevail? It seems impossible.

Patriots Tame Colts

I like Andrew Luck. I liked him at Stanford. And as much as I also liked RG3, I felt like Luck was a better NFL QB because he was a better decision maker. And maybe someday that decision making ability will come to fruition. But not yesterday. Yesterday, Mr. Luck was a walking turnover.

The much-maligned Patriots defense turned this game around in the 2nd quarter. They forced a 3 and out which led to Julian Edelman's punt return TD. Then Vince Wilfork's pressure influenced Andrew Luck to thrown an INT, which Aqib Talib returned for another TD.

In the 3rd quarter, the Patriots offense stepped up. Right after half-time they flawlessly drove downfield and scored. Then after Rob Ninkovich forced an Andrew Luck fumble, Brady hit Rob Gronkowski in the end zone. And the game was essentially over.

Alfonzo Dennard's pick 6 was icing on the cake, and the Patriots won the 4th quarter 21-7. He and Talib are actually legit CBs, and that's nice to have once again.

But already I can hear the armchair coaches out there. "Why was Gronk still in there?" "Why were we still scoring?" "Why do we have star players on PAT?"

Folks, it's a 60 minute game. And injuries are always a risk. You play 60 minutes, even with a big lead, so when you need to play 60 tough minutes you're accustomed to it. Please leave your amateur coaching strategies where they belong, inside your brain, along with your theories about traffic on 128 and how you can do a better job than your boss.

Some people are already complaining about this 5 score victory. This Yahoo recap moaned about the Patriots defense being "suspect" and allowing 448 yards. Um, the defense also scored twice, forced 4 turnovers, that's a good day for a defense. Regardless of how many yards they allowed.

Let us be cheerful. The Pats have a 3 game lead over every AFC East team. They're playing the Jets on Thanksgiving, and it's an opportunity to all but eliminate the NYJ from the divisional race.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Blow Save, Win in Extra Innings

One good thing about the Patriots is that they play entertaining 4th quarters. One bad thing about the Patriots is that they play entertaining 4th quarters.

At some point this team MUST learn how to close. The difference between good teams and great teams is the ability to close games when you're ahead, and occasionally steal them when you're behind.

If NFL games were 3 quarters long, the Patriots would be 5-1-1 (tied with Buffalo 21-21 after 3 quarters). Not only that, they would've beaten Tennessee by 18, Denver by 17, Seattle by 10, and New York by 10. In 7 games, the Pats have "won" only three 4th quarters. They've been outscored 4 out of 7 games in the 4th.

The Patriots didn't make game-deciding plays until very late in this game. They didn't make game-changing plays either. They dropped passes, didn't take advantage of the safety, didn't take advantage of Alfonzo Dennard's INT, or a facemask penalty on a punt. The Jets gave the Patriots chances to put them away, and the Pats refused. Instead they tried flea-flickers, and that shit needs to stop right fucking now, Josh.

This lack of opportunism is an alarming trend.

Even more disturbing is a realization I had while watching this game: the success or failure of the Patriots depends on Devin McCourty more than anyone else.

That's a scary thought, but it's true. Look at this game. McCourty returns a kickoff and the Patriots look strong. He fumbles a kickoff and the Jets almost win. His blown coverages and pass interference penalties have punctuated game-winning drives for opponents. And his interceptions have sealed victories for the Patriots.

McCourty has had much more influence over the outcome of games than an inconsistent 3rd year defensive back should have. Other players need to step up and take more control of the game.

On the bright side, a win is a win. And Alfonzo Dennard looks very good for a rookie. The Pats ultimately made enough plays to win. The Jets clearly suck. There are some things to be optimistic about.

One request, though... Football stadiums should play "Safety Dance" by Men Without Hats whenever there's a safety. Everybody would love it. All the fans would dance and if they don't dance well they're no fans of mine.

Patriots play the Rams in London next Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots-Jets Drinking Game

Here's a drinking game to play during Sunday evening's festivities. Every time certain words, phrases, or images are shown you have to drink a certain amount.

Anytime a commentator says...
"high-octane" or "no huddle" - 1 drink from a beer
"Oregon" or "Oklahoma" = 1 drink for the first mention, then 2 for the second, 3 for the third, and so on.
"Alfonzo Dennard" the wrong way (it's Duh-nard) = half a beer
Any press clipping about Mark Sanchez = 1 drink
Any press clipping about Tim Tebow = 3 drinks
"Tebow" = 1 drink
Talking about Tebow as a great human being = 1 drink
Anything to do with the number 666 = half a beer and a shot

Anytime this is on the screen...
Fall foliage = 1 shot and half a beer
Foliage from Vermont = the same as above plus a shot of maple syrup
Someone Tebowing = drink a beer for 6.66 seconds
Bob Kraft = 1 drink
Bob Kraft talking to someone = drink as long as he's talking
Bill Belichick pulling something from his sock = 1 drink
Bible verse = a shot for the number of the chapter, and drink from a beer for the number of seconds of the verse, so John 3:16 would be 3 shots and 16 seconds of beer
Any graphic or reference to Belichick as head coach of the Jets = a beer
Any clips from Hard Knocks = 1 drink

Anytime this happens...
Tom Brady yells "alpha milk" = 1 drink
Patriots get a rushing first down = 1 drink
Patriots allow a passing first down = 1 drink
Devin McCourty gets beat on a pass = 1 drink (even if it's incomplete)
Devin McCourty interception = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork tipped pass = 1 drink
Vince Wilfork recovers turnover = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork returns turnover for TD = 1 shot, 1 beer, 1 turkey wing
Rex Ryan is bleeped out or says something that'd be bleeped out = 1 drink
Wes Welker mentioning feet (even in a past video) = 1 drink
Gronk spikes the ball = 1 drink
Gronk doesn't spike after TD = 1 whole beer
Kickoff touchback = 1 drink
Kickoff return = drink until the return is over
Whenever Stevan Ridley or Aaron Hernandez carry the ball without properly securing it = 1 drink

Brady Beats Manning... What Else Is New

Tom Brady improved to 9-4 in his career against Peyton Manning. Although like many of those famous victories in 2003 and 2004, the Patriots beat Manning as a team.

The Pats put up some collegiate style stats. They rushed for 251 yards on 54 carries. They only threw the ball 31 times. They ran 89 plays. At times it reminded me of watching Clemson, or especially Oregon. High-paced, quick-snapping, no-huddle offense. It doesn't work all the time, but it worked against Denver.

Wes Welker had another Wes Welker kind of day. 8 receptions, 104 yards, his first TD of the season. I think the best thing to happen to this offense was the injury to Julian Edelman. Welker's talents were being wasted as a third/fourth option. After the game he jokingly remarked that it was nice to "Stick it in Bill's face."

There are a number of things Wes Welker can't do. But only Wes Welker can do what Wes Welker does. He gets open in a instant, he's slippery, he's a compact target to tackle, he's durable. He's like a small pickup truck with a turbo-charged engine.

This game turned on some big 3rd and long conversions, along with some Denver mistakes. In other words, there's room for improvement. And that's not me being pessimistic, it's me being optimistic. This team has potential to be amazing if they can put 60 good minutes together.

Defensively, there were some lapses, also some big plays allowed. The forced fumbles were pivotal. And Alfonzo Dennard looked pretty good in his first ever NFL game. As always for this unit, it was a mixed bag.

Offensively, my only complaint is that for one drive in the 4th the Pats went away from the run, which had been working so well. It was as if Josh McDaniels wanted to drive the stake into Denver with a few big pass plays, instead of continuing to slowly torture them.

And I don't mind the 4th & 5 attempt. I do think that if you intend to go for it on 4th & 5, why not run on 3rd & 5? It'd been working all day. But up by as many as they were, I have no problem with the Patriots being aggressive in that part of the field.

The Pats aren't perfect. No team in the NFL is. The Patriots have a defense that surrenders big plays and makes big plays. They have an offense that can beat you in a multitude of ways. So long as they do their job and execute, the only team that can truly beat the Patriots is the Patriots.

Pats at Seahawks next Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Draft a Shutdown Corner/Accused Criminal

The Patriots drafted a project/accused criminal in the 7th round. Alfonzo Dennard has ridiculous talent, and was a shutdown corner in the Big Ten for Nebraska. But he ended his senior season with an ejection in the CapitalOne Bowl.

Then he had a disappointing combine.

Oh, and he was in jail as recently as last Monday for resisting being placed in custody and assaulting a police officer. The story is that he was being belligerent outside a bar, was asked twice by police to leave the area, and was later seen pushing and punching another person in the same area. Police tried to put him in custody, he resisted, more pushing and punching with the cops, and hence the arrest.

This is a first round talent taken in the 7th round. This guy might sound like a bit of a loser, but the Patriots can't lose on this pick.

I have no idea how well Belichick and the locker room leaders will do to help Dennard to get his act together. But if he doesn't, he won't get 3 chances like he did with the cops in Lincoln. He'll get 1.

In the entire NFL Draft, Dennard might have the biggest gap between his potential upside and his potential downside. He's talented enough to be in the Pro Bowl. He's also capable of winding up in prison. Belichick is probably thrilled with this pick. And so is whoever coaches football at the Correctional Institution in Walpole.