Ex-Patriot (emphasis on the X) Wes Welker suspended

What is a 33-year old man doing taking Molly at the Kentucky Derby?

As a Patriots fan, I'm not going to judge Wes Welker. There have been plenty of Pats players who have taken PEDs. There have been plenty of Pats players who have taken recreational drugs. There have been plenty of Pats players who have made bad life decisions.

However, I will call Wes Welker an idiot. And a bit of a tool.

I don't care what other people put into their body. If you want to smoke weed, snort coke, inject heroin into your veins, go right ahead. But if you want to go to the Kentucky Derby and make a spectacle of yourself handing out $100 bills, and you decide to take some Molly while doing it, you're leaving yourself open for ridicule, and worse.

Welker taking MDMA isn't the crux of the story here. Not for me at least. What's truly giving me a sense of Schadenfreude is that he was lionized by a small but vocal group of sports writers, pundits, and fans. He was the David in the David vs. Goliath narrative that unfolds whenever a player "stands up" against the cruel and stingy Patriots.

Welker became a hero to these critics and cynics. Just like Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, and Logan Mankins. When players hold out or refuse to restructure their contracts or play hardball with the Patriots, these critics love it, and become their biggest fans. The players turn into Bob Cratchit asking Scrooge for a raise. Or Oliver Twist saying "Please, sir, I want some more."

Last year it even had some of them rooting for the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, just so Saint Wes could get a ring, just so it would stick in Belichick's craw. And before that, it had people defending Welker for taking out Aqib Talib in the AFC Championship game.

Welker is no saint. He's no hero. He's just a guy. He seems like a bit of a douche, which isn't uncommon for athletes. He seems like a bit of an idiot, which isn't uncommon for people in general.

Patriots Make Everyone Happy and Sign Darrelle Revis

The Patriots and cornerback Darrelle Revis have reportedly agreed to a one-year deal worth $12 million.

To anyone who said that the Patriots should have franchised Aqib Talib and paid him $11.8 million for one year, do you wish to recant and repent? I'll give you a few moments...

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To anyone who completely freaked out yesterday and acted like they had PMS because Talib got signed by the Broncos, I'm going to give you a few moments to contemplate how foolish you were to get so overly emotional on March 12th...


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Let's also not forget the so-called "experts" who confidently declared that Revis would demand top dollar, probably costing $16 million a season. And that once Revis saw what Talib got, Revis would want a similarly large and lengthy deal. What actually happened was that Revis took a pay-cut to play for the Patriots. And the deal lasts one season. Let's think about how smart these pundits, who spend 365 days a year trying to figure out the Patriots, actually were...

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And now let's move on. Idiots.

I can't say I love the $12 million cap hit, however it's just for a year. And in terms of guaranteed money, the Patriots are paying less than half of what the Denver Broncos paid Talib. So the Pats get a better player, who is less injury prone, for less guaranteed money. They pay more per year, but both Revis and the Patriots have flexibility for 2015. Flexibility is everything.

I'm thrilled with this acquisition. They got Revis at less than what anyone expected. They've actually improved at a position despite losing their most important defensive player at the same position. How often does that happen? In any sport. Imagine a hockey team losing their starting goalie, or a baseball team their Ace pitcher, only to bring in someone else and improve at the position in less than 24 hours.

There's still more work to be done. The Patriots NEED wide receivers. Right now, their #1 WR under contract is Danny Amendola, and that's alarming. As much as I like signing Revis, by signing him it's now more difficult to sign the absolute best available receivers. So, foolish overly emotional Patriots fans, please remember this. Keep your expectations grounded when it comes to big name receivers.

Apart from receivers, the Pats also still need a second tight-end who can occasionally catch, a pass rusher or two, maybe another CB for depth.

Sun Tzu said in The Art of War that "Every battle is won before it's fought." Similarly, Super Bowls are won before they are played: in the off-season, in training camp, in practice. This acquisition helps the Patriots win the battles they'll find themselves fighting in the autumn and winter. At the same time, the off-season isn't over yet, and it's just one phase of the year.

I'm excited to see Revis in a Patriots uniform. But Super Bowls are played in February, not March. The 2014 NFL Year has only just begun. There are many more days left.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Broncos Overpay for Aqib Talib

It hurts losing one of your best players in free agency. It really hurts losing him to your toughest conference opponent. It's a sudden, shocking kind of hurt. Losing Talib is like having your hand smashed with a hammer. Hurts like hell but you'll heal. Bad contracts are like arthritis. Incessant, nagging pain that will last for years.

The Broncos signed Aqib Talib to a 6-year deal worth $57 million, $26 million of which is guaranteed.

That's $9.5 million a year for Talib. Which is too much.

That's a 6-year deal for Talib. Which is too long.

That's $26 million guaranteed to Talib. Which is too much.

It's just a bad deal any way you slice it.

I'm not happy to see him go, especially to Denver, but I wouldn't be happy making that deal. It's too much of an investment and a commitment, especially considering Talib's health issues and the potential for on-field and off-field issues.

And no, losing Talib doesn't mean the Patriots MUST sign or trade for Darrelle Revis. While they do need cornerbacks, you don't need an amazing CB to win. And having an amazing CB doesn't automatically make you a winner. The Patriots do need to improve the position. Even if Talib had stayed in Foxborough, I thought the Patriots needed more experience and depth at the position.

When the Pats have lost Talib to injury, their lack of depth has been exposed. Overpaying Talib doesn't help add depth.

The Patriots also need a better pass rush. They need to reduce the time their defensive backs have to cover opposing receivers. Spending too much on Talib would have meant having less to spend on this pass rush. Or wherever it is the Patriots spend the money they would have spent on Talib.

The Patriots also need receivers who can hold their own in battles against guys like Talib and other good DBs. The Pats need strong, physical receivers. Steve Smith comes to mind. What a diabolical pick-up that would be to put Steve Smith out there against Talib when the Patriots and Broncos play.

Overpaying Talib would have made it more difficult for the Patriots to improve elsewhere.

I am anticipating the pained whines and moans of Patriots fans this morning. "Couldn't the Patriots have made the leap from 8 million to 9.5? How much of a difference is 1.5?" "Another big name out the door." "When will this team spend on their free agents?" "I'm sick of it." "In Bill we trust."

I'm also anticipating the angry and emotional demands of the fanbase. "Get Revis. NOW!"

Yesterday's optimism as NFL free agency began and the sun shone down on New England, has been shattered by cruel reality. It's sunny and mild in Denver today. It's rainy and cold here. Let Denver enjoy this brief sunshine. This contract will burn them.

Photo Credit:
USA Today Sports

Happy New Year, Patriots Fans!

For all intents and purposes, this is New Year's Day in the NFL. Actually, it's New Year's Eve until 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. And much like the real New Year's, people are full of high expectations and hope. This is especially true of New England Patriots fans. There are rumors that Darrelle Revis will be cut by Tampa Bay, making him a free agent. There's speculation about freeing up cap space by cutting Danny Amendola and/or Vince Wilfork. Steve Smith is being mentioned in trade rumors. There are a number of wide receivers who will soon be free agents. So many happy possibilities! We can forget about 2013 and move on to next year. Fresh starts! New beginnings! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind...

However, just like the real New Year, people enter with ludicrously high hopes, then are often disappointed by harsh reality. This is also how Patriots fans enter into each and every off-season. They fantasize about Larry Fitzgerald, and having both Aqib Talib and Darrelle Revis on the field at the same time. They imagine trading for Steve Smith and moving up in the draft to select Sammy Watkins. Why not even add Jimmy Graham too?

You would think after years of following the Patriots, fans would learn to limit expectations and try to be as grounded as possible. Instead, with each passing off-season of disappointment their dreams seem to only increase in grandeur and decrease in plausibility.

Darrelle Revis is the latest object of Pats fans' fantasies. When word got out that the Buccaneers were shopping him, Pats fans immediately wanted to trade for him. Now that it seems like Tampa Bay might let him go, and Pats fans immediately want to sign him.

And so do I. He's a great player. If cap space weren't a consideration and the Patriots didn't need help elsewhere, it would be a no-brainer.

It's funny how the people who demanded Aqib Talib be re-signed are the same people now demanding that Revis be acquired.

It's also funny that the most passionate pleas for signing Revis are coming from the same people who were screaming the loudest about the Patriots needs at wide receiver.

I'm sure these sudden, dramatic, and sometimes conflicting shifts in demands are because these people are thinking rationally and not because they're reacting emotionally.

Unlike these people, who seem to know what to do, I don't think I could figure out a 53-man roster, along with all the salary cap numbers, and all the bonuses, and the guaranteed money, and the roster bonuses, and the workout bonuses, and juggle the cap in 2014 while thinking about the cap in 2015, and keep some money for draft day selections I haven't even picked yet. But these people who a few months ago demanded Aqib Talib be re-signed, then demanded a big tall wide receiver, and are now demanding Darrelle Revis, these people seem to know how to juggle all those variables. I'm impressed.

The complexities of an NFL roster are too much for a person like me to figure out. Especially since I only just watch football. The people demanding Revis, I'll just take their word for it. They've got it figured out. After all, they make it seem so simple. And they reach their conclusions so quickly. That's evidence of their clear and concise thought.

End sarcasm.

I'm not arguing against signing Darrelle Revis. He's a great player and he would help this team tremendously. I am arguing against overly simplistic and emotionally based arguments. I'm arguing against Patriots fans who should know better than to hope for a Daniel Snyder style off-season of buying names.

As I'm writing this, there are stories that the Patriots are close to re-signing Aqib Talib. I'm fine with that. I also think the Patriots need to add a #2 cornerback with experience, so when/if the #1 guy (whether it's Talib or someone else) gets hurt, or they face a team with multiple weapons at receiver, the Pats don't get burned.

There's an argument out there that Talib is injury prone, so he shouldn't be re-signed, therefore Revis should be acquired. That's valid. It makes sense. At the same time, such vulnerability suggests another argument: don't put your eggs in one basket. Don't over-invest in one player. When you invest too much in one player or at one position, at the expense of depth and at the expense of strength at other positions, you create an over-reliance on one player, and weaknesses at other positions. And if your one keystone player goes down, then you're weak EVERYWHERE.

The Patriots, when they've depended on one lone cornerback as the key to their defense, have been exposed when that single player gets taken out of the game or doesn't play well.

I'll take Talib plus a solid #2 CB and/or a better pass rush over Darrell Revis. That might not be what the Patriots do, it might not be the right thing to do, but at least my arguments are based on rationality and reason, not just emotion and over-simplification.

When you base too much on emotion, and ignore logic, even when you're right it's by accident.

Happy New Year, Patriots fans. I hope the Pats have a productive off-season and address more than just one of their needs. I also hope fans don't get too pie-in-the-sky hopeful about all the big names out there. Teams win Super Bowls, not names.

What the Patriots Need Besides Wide Receivers

For going on 2 weeks I've heard it and read it everywhere: The Patriots need wide receiver help. I couldn't agree more.

That being said, most of you sound like whiny little kids in the checkout line at the grocery store, pleading with their parents to buy them candy bars from the impulse item rack or else they'll throw a temper tantrum. "I want Larry Fitzgerald now!" "We want Anquan Boldin!" "Give us James Jones!" "We need Emmanuel Sanders!" and so on.

I want better receivers too and hopefully the Patriots get some. There are, however, other areas of the team that if improved, will dramatically increase the likelihood of another Patriots Super Bowl win...

#1 The Pass Rush
I'm surprised that after the Pats lost to the Broncos in the AFC Championship game nobody complained much about the complete and utter lack of a pass rush on Peyton Manning. I'm not talking about sacks. I'm talking about reducing a great quarterback's time to find open receivers. Manning had all day on almost every snap.

The one play Manning was truly pressured, he lobbed a ball to a double-covered Wes Welker. Had Kyle Arrington turned around to play the ball, he would have at least batted it down, and could have intercepted it. Pressure created a playmaking opportunity.

A pass rush forces bad passes, throws out of bounds, shorter routes. It makes coverage more manageable for DBs and lets them be more aggressive. It can reduce the effectiveness of a good/great QB (the type you meet in the playoffs), and can force a mediocre/poor QB to make game-losing mistakes. When the Patriots defense owned Manning back in 2003-2004, it was because the pass rush pressured him. When the Patriots went 18-1, it was a pass rush that defeated them.

How to improve the pass rush? Getting Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo helps, as these are guys who occupy attention and allow others to make plays in the backfield. Chandler Jones recorded 11.5 sacks, tied for 7th in the NFL. He's doing his job. Add another guy on the edge and not necessarily a guy who's going to get 10+ sacks. Just someone strong and fast enough who will put a clock in the QB's head and force him to get rid of the ball sooner than he'd like.

I'd also like to see the Patriots change their mindset on defense and be much more aggressive. They've tried the bend-don't-break approach for years. It does reduce opposing points, but it also lets the opponent stay on the field for far too long. It puts all the pressure on the offense to score points in fewer drives that start from poor field position.

I think the defense, with Mayo, Wilfork, Jones, and an improving secondary, is good enough to be given a longer leash. Let them loose, let them go after the quarterback.

#2 Another Experienced CB
Aqib Talib is the most irreplaceable defensive player on the team. And even if you retain his services, you still have to hope/pray he remains healthy down the stretch.

When Talib is out the Patriots miss his skills, but they also lose a guy who knows what he's doing. The Pats have a crop of talented young DBs, but you can't draft wisdom or coach experience. I'd like to see the Pats add another experienced corner. He doesn't have to be amazing. Just someone who's been around a few years and knows what they're doing. Someone who knows his own capabilities, knows how to play the position, won't get tricked, won't make stupid decisions that lead to big plays.

And if Talib gets hurt, the veteran can assume Talib's coverage responsibilities. He'll probably get burnt, but at least everyone else can stay with their planned assignments and losing one DB won't result in 3 mismatches (as it did against Denver this year and Baltimore last year). It's better to be burnt by one guy than toasted by an entire team. And if you have a smart player, at least he'll know what he's doing, and (in theory) won't be burnt as badly.

And obviously if you don't retain Talib, you either need to replace him or dramatically improve somewhere else, like the pass rush.

I know adding an average, veteran cornerback and reducing the time opposing QBs have to throw by half a second isn't as exhilarating or as emotionally satisfying as acquiring a 1,000+ yard wide receiver. It's sort of like getting socks for Christmas compared to an X-Box. But the Patriots need both. They need playmakers on offense, and on defense they need guys who can limit opposing playmakers.

Bill Belichick vs. Wes Welker Continues After Game, a.k.a. PickGate

Did Wes Welker set a pick on Aqib Talib? Clearly. Was it intent to injure? Only Welker knows that. Was it a targeted hit on Talib? Probably.

Bill Belichick seems to think so. And I'm inclined to agree. I know by agreeing with Belichick, that somehow invalidates my opinions. The cool thing to do is to disagree with him, and to side with Wes Welker. That's what people do when someone stands up to Belichick the bully. The media, the fans, they all side with the poor David of a player standing up to the Goliath of Patriot Management. Welker is like Bob Cratchit standing up to Scrooge, or the Ewoks from Return of the Jedi fighting against the Empire and Darth Belichick.

Welker's play was dirty. Maybe not an explicit intent to injure, but certainly an intent to hurt. I do think Belichick used some hyperbole in his remarks, making his comments sound like sour grapes. I've seen dirtier hits from defensive backs and receivers. Some of them wearing a Patriots uniform.

What makes me think Welker's actions were intentionally dirty is the timing, the players involved, and the potential benefits of hindering/hurting/injuring Talib. Not necessarily knocking him out of the game, but hitting him around enough so that he was less effective. The game-ending injury was a bonus for the Broncos.

The Broncos were held to 3 points in the 1st quarter (only the 19th time in 69 quarters of play that the Broncos failed to score a TD). Part of that was because Talib was covering Demariyus Thomas. Thomas had 1 catch for 29 yards in the 1st quarter. Once Talib was removed, Thomas exploded for 6 catches, 105 yards, and a TD. Without Talib, the Pats' coverage on other receivers also struggled, as everyone was forced to shift assignments.

It's something Welker witnessed first hand in last year's AFC Championship game against Baltimore. Talib left that game with a thigh injury. Anquan Boldin, whom Talib had been covering, took advantage of Talib's absence and scored 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile the rest of the Patriots' secondary struggled with their adjusted responsibilities. Talib's presence allows Dennard and Arrington to cover easier assignments. It also allows the safeties to give them more help.

Taking Talib off the chess board (or making him less mobile on it) would make things easier for all of Denver's offensive pieces to get open. Welker knew that.

I'm not saying Welker meant to injure Talib. But how often did we see him run into defensive backs like that while he was here? It didn't seem accidental. Maybe it was a mistimed block, which seems odd after the refs flagged New England for setting a pick.

Which is more likely, that Welker was setting an early block or that he saw Talib and saw an opportunity to make a hit on the Patriots' most important defensive player?

In hockey if a player hits someone away from the play like that, we assume there is an intention. If someone took a similar run at Zdeno Chara in a playoff game, for instance, everyone would know that it was deliberate and targeted. Especially if the team that took him out was struggling to score. So what was Welker's intention? To block? To send a message? To make an impact on a key part of the opposing defense which had done well to contain your high-powered offense?

Which is most likely?

Welker had motive: his team had been struggling to put up points and their best receiver wasn't much of a factor.

He had the opportunity as crossing plays are a big part of Denver's offense.

And he knew what losing Talib would do to the Pats' defense after seeing it firsthand against the Ravens last season and seeing how well Talib did against Thomas in the regular season (4 catches, 41 yards).

The most important defensive player was injured by an ex-teammate running into him away from the play. That's suspicious at the very least. It's probably intentional, and likely dirty. I think Belichick was a bit over the top in his analysis of the play. Then again, I'd be pissed too.

I don't think Welker should be suspended or fined or hated by Patriots fans for this. It was a physical play. He went after a key player on the opposing team. We've praised that type of play from the Patriots for years and criticized the lack of it when it's not there. Marginal dirtiness is something the Patriots are known for.

However, it is time to dismiss the childish fairy tale notion that Wes Welker represents the forces of Good fighting against Evil. It's time for media and fans to stop "feeling good" for Welker's success with the Broncos. He's a person, he's a football player, and he did something that was marginally dirty on Sunday. He injured the most important defensive player on the hometown team. Sorry, but that doesn't jive with the narrative that he's the good David fighting against the evil Goliath. He didn't use a slingshot to take down the Patriots, he used a dirty play.

Patriots' Season Ends in Denver

Pressure. The game of football is about pressure. You pressure an opponent, they pressure you, and the clock pressures everyone. To win you must put pressure on an opponent and play well under pressure.

On Sunday the Patriots failed to put any significant pressure on Peyton Manning. For all the talk about Manning struggling in pressure situations, he never found himself in one. The defense rarely pressured him in the pocket, his receivers weren't pressured (especially once Aqib Talib left the game), and the Patriots offense didn't pressure him to put up points.

The Pats gave up 2 touchdowns and 4 field goals. That's not bad against the Broncos. That was the third fewest points they've scored this season. The Pats defense didn't allow a huge number of points but they allowed yardage and possession time. They allowed almost 0.3 miles of offense. And they couldn't make a big third down stop.

The offensive side of the ball was an even bigger letdown. Before Denver went to softer coverage in the 4th quarter, Brady threw only a handful of good passes. He overthrew Julian Edelman on what could have been a touchdown. He missed Austin Collie just before halftime on what would have been a huge gain. What happens in this game if these two plays are made?

The plays were there. The Patriots didn't make them. In the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 9, Manning threw a duck into double coverage. And if Kyle Arrington had turned around to play the ball he probably would have intercepted it. At the very least he would have broken the play up and ended the drive. Instead it was caught by Welker for a first down. The Broncos went on to score a touchdown on that drive.

While the Patriots failed to make big plays, the Broncos succeeded. On the same drive that Arrington could have had an interception, Knowshon Moreno gained 28 yards on a 3rd and 10 draw. The Broncos sacked Brady on a pivotal 3rd and 8 play the next drive, and later in the game on a 4th and 2 attempt. Last week I wrote about the timing of big plays the Patriots made against the Colts. This week the Broncos had excellent timing against the Pats.

Tom Brady had an awful game. Maybe he has an injured hand. Maybe he has the flu. Maybe he just had a bad day. Whatever the cause, the effect was a hole dug too deeply to get out of. The defense could have done better, maybe gotten off the field on a few 3rd downs, but I think the blame for this loss lies mostly with the offense. Three points in three quarters? The Pats only scored when Denver's defense eased up.

To be fair to Brady he didn't have much to work with. With a struggling running game the offense looked shabby, like the Patriots had picked people from the stands to play. Shane Vereen was the second most targeted receiver. Danny Amendola did nothing, and had a big fat drop. You're targeting Matthew Slater and Matthew Mulligan. And when receivers did beat coverage, Brady either missed them or he was sacked.

It was an anticlimactic end to what was an exciting season. I'm not as miserable as most fans are. I enjoyed the ride, not knowing where or when it would end. I didn't set my expectations high for this team. I didn't set any expectations. I had hopes and I had doubts. The Patriots did better than my most pessimistic doubts and didn't do as well as my highest hopes.

The one thing I'm disappointed in is that the Patriots didn't go out with their best fight. They went out with a fizzle, not a bang. I think there were some missed opportunities early in this game. I think the defense could have been a bit more disguised. I would have liked to see some sellout blitzes. You couldn't take out all 4 of Manning's weapons, so focus on attacking Manning. Take a risk. What's the worse that can happen? You get burnt for a touchdown, but at least the drive is short.

The off-season should be interesting. So will next season, Pats fans, so cheer up.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Joe Mahoney

2013 BBS Awards: Drew Bledsoe Award for Patriots Player of the Year

This award goes to the best player on the Patriots. Because these awards are for the calendar year, we can consider last year's playoffs. But not this year's.

There were a few players who warranted consideration for this award. The winner is someone whose production was a surprise, and was also much needed.

The winner is Julian Edelman.

Honorable mentions to Logan Mankins and Aqib Talib. And Tom Brady, of course.

Julian Edelman became only the third Patriot in team history to catch over 100 passes, hauling in 105. He amassed 1,056 receiving yards, scored 6 touchdowns, averaged 10.1 yards per catch, never fumbled, and averaged 10.7 yards per punt return.

And the Patriots needed him to do all this. Rob Gronkowski only played a few games. Danny Amendola was in and out of the lineup. Same with Shane Vereen. Stevan Ridley was unreliable at times. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins were never dependable. Edelman stepped up and became Brady's most reliable weapon.

His 1,056 yards accounted for 24.3% of the team's total receiving yards. His 105 catches accounted for 27.6% of Brady's completions. Brady targeted Edelman 151 times, which was 24% of Brady's throws.

Even when Gronk was back in the lineup, Edelman was still a major part of the offense, Two of Edelman's four 100 yard games were when Gronkowski was active, along with 3 of his 6 TDs.

Edelman saved the offense.

Another Patriots Game Ends With Official Confusion

I'll launch a tirade about the call-then-non-call at the end of the game. Then I'll get to the game.

I find it odd that pushing a teammate when trying to block a field goal is penalized, but hugging a tight-end in the end zone is not. And I find it odd that a lawyer from Nebraska (referee Clete Blakeman, who did play QB for the Cornhuskers in the 1980s), can make an instant judgment about the athletic abilities of Rob Gronkowski AND Luke Kuechly. On the spot, the officials determined that Gronkowski would have been physically unable to turn and compete for the football in the end zone. Further, the refs determined that the influence Luke Kuechly exerted on Gronk wasn't what kept Gronkowski from competing for the ball.

So a former college player and current lawyer decided, with no benefit of replay or review, what Rob Gronkowski was and wasn't capable of doing. And what Luke Kuechly was and wasn't capable of preventing Gronkowski from doing. These are two of the best athletes in the League, and a 49-year-old lawyer determined what they were capable of.

I hate games that end this way. Any games. I hate games that end with rule book explanations.

I hate the fact that one official, who was on top of the play, instinctively threw his flag. He saw SOMETHING. Then the crew decided that whatever he saw was nullified because of something else. And it's still unclear what any of those somethings are.

If the official in the end zone had kept his flag in his pocket because it was the last play, and in all sports officials allow things to happen at the end of games that they would normally penalize in the earlier stages, that would have been fine. Instead, a flag was thrown for some reason, picked up for another reason, and the game ended with a question mark. Not a period, or an exclamation point.

Just questions marks.

To the game...

The Patriots did plenty to lose this game before that last play. Stevan Ridley's fumble might have cost them a touchdown. The 4th quarter pass on 3rd and 1 in the Red Zone was also poorly executed and a weird decision. A trademark of a Josh McDaniels offense is that he tries too hard to stay one step ahead of you. Instead of having faith in the players to execute, he tries to outwit his opponents. And instead of staying with something that works, he'll try to adjust his offense BEFORE his opponent adjusts to what had been working.

It's like trying to counter a chess opponent's move before he's made it. It's not strategically sound.

The Patriots defense also looked much weaker than it's been in earlier stages of the season. With no Wilfork, no Mayo, no Dennard, the Panthers were able to mount some impressive drives. Aqib Talib was criticized a great deal, but his game wasn't as horrible as you might think. Steve Smith caught 4 passes for 62 yards. Talib didn't have his best game, but he wasn't torched either.

Every time the Patriots collapsed the pocket around Cam Newton, it was a bad thing. Give him credit for making sensational plays. But also criticize the Patriots for not being cautious with him. You don't want to collapse pockets around Newton, you want to contain them. He's explosive, and with explosives you want to keep them contained and controlled.

I'm not disheartened or worried by the outcome of this game. This game was winnable. Carolina played better. But the Patriots weren't inferior in terms of talent or ability or effort. Just in execution. If Ridley keeps the ball, if Talib keeps his temper, if the play-calling was better, et cetera. These are all attainable ifs.

So I'm not concerned by this. The Patriots failed a test, but did show they have the capability of passing it.

Speaking of tests, the Broncos come to town Sunday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Mike McCarn

Patriots-Bengals Drinking Game

In honor of the game's host city, Cincinnati, a.k.a. The Nati, massive bonus points will be awarded for drinking Natty Light/Ice during this game. God bless you, you sad, drunken mess. Here are the guidelines for this week's game:

Anytime a commentator says...
"Patchwork" = take 1 drink of beer
"Rookie" = 1 drink
"No-name" = 1 drink
"Amendola" = 1 drink
"Trust" (when talking about a Patriots WR and Brady) = 1 drink
"Comfort" (same condition as above) = 1 drink
"Wes Welker" = 1 drink
"Chad" = 1 drink
"Johnson" = 1 drink
"Ochocinco" = drink for 85 seconds
"Corey Dillon" = drink for 28 seconds
"Hole" = 1 drink
An abbreviation for Michael Hoomanawanui's last name = 1 drink
A joke about the difficulty of Hoomanawanui's name = 1 drink

Anytime this is on screen...
A tiger statue or other facsimile of a tiger = 1 drink
An actual tiger = 1 whole beer
Iso-shot of Aqib Talib covering someone = 1 drink
The Ohio River = 1 drink
Image of Rob Gronkowski = 1 drink
Bob Kraft = 1 drink
Kraft talking to someone = drink the entire time he's talking
Bill Belichick's sock(s) = drink an entire beer and a shot

Anytime this happens...
You get frustrated at a Patriots WR making a mistake/drop = drink a shot
Tom Brady gets frustrated at a Pats WR = drink beer for 12 seconds
Tom Brady yells "Aplha Milk" = Drink 1 White Russian
Brady points out the "Mike" = 1 drink (or 3 drinks from Mike's Hard Lemonade for bonus points)
Patriots WR runs wrong route = 1 drink
Patriots WR drops pass = 1 drink
Brady throws to a tight-end (excluding Gronk) = 1 shot of liquor

Patriots Win as a Team in Atlanta

You remember the Super Bowl against the Rams, when the Patriots were introduced as a team. That was how they won back in 2001, 2003, and 2004, as a team. That's also how they won Sunday night and that's also how they've managed to go 4-0 despite injury after injury.

This is no longer just Tom Brady carrying the roster on his back. Win or lose, this will be a group effort in 2013. From Brady to Thompkins to Talib to Blount to rookie defensive linemen nobody has ever heard of to Pro Bowl offensive linemen protecting Brady and opening holes for the running backs. Team, team, team.

Aqib Talib's Sunday Night performance was a masterpiece. Ryan threw at him 8 times, and only completed one of those passes. Talib hauled in his 4th interception of the season, and he defended 4 passes, including the game-clinching 4th down pass in the end zone. His presence on the field is a necessary condition of the Patriots winning against good teams. Without him, the Pats are screwed.

The offensive line also stepped up. They protected Brady on 3rd and 19 so he could hook up with Kenbrell Thompkins. On the next play Dan Connolly pulled and opened up a large gap for LeGarrette Blount to barrel through and then sprint to a 47-yard TD.

Speaking of Thompkins, he and Brady seem to have finally reached a level of trust and comfort. The TD pass Brady threw to Thompkins was all about trust. Brady threw to a spot he figured Thompkins would reach, and Thompkins got there.

It wasn't a completely clean victory for the Pats. Zach Sudfeld bobbled an onside kick and gave Atlanta some life. Brady had his second fumbled snap of the season, which is 2 more than I can ever remember him having. That was on a huge 4th and 1 play. And Dont'a Hightower still struggles in coverage.

The Falcons contributed by committing several unforced errors which made the Patriots' path to victory much clearer: Going for it on 4th and 2 so early in the game, an obviously excited Matt Ryan overthrowing on that same 4th and 2 play, a few key penalties, some drops. The Falcons are just too tightly wound to win in big games. There's no composure, only a hurried over-eagerness to make a big play.

The Patriots passed a test and are 4-0. And that means what? The combined record of their opponents is 5-11. So we shouldn't be crowing the Patriots just yet. It's barely autumn.

However, the goal for the first half of the season was to tread water until Gronkowski returned. The Patriots are 4-0 without him. And have won 3 without Amendola. And just won without Wilfork for most of the game. I'll take 4-0 with all these injuries, regardless of the caliber of opponent. The Pats have achieved their quarterly goals.

They remain on the road against a decent Bengals team that's 2-2, but also 2-0 at home.

Photo Credit:
Daniel Shirey - USA Today

Patriots Drop AFC Championship

Before I get into the game, let's watch this...

Okay, there's no way any normally balanced human being cannot be smiling after watching that, so let's talk about the latest Patriot playoff disappointment.

Last week I wrote a post stating that if the Patriots play their best, I didn't see how Baltimore could win. Unfortunately, the Patriots did not play their best. Far from it. Dropped passes, poor clock management, and poor offensive execution in the Red Zone and on 3rd downs. And the Ravens, ravenously capitalized.

The Patriots offense is good enough to win games on its own. The Patriots defense is good enough to combine with the offense to win games. The Patriots defense is not good enough to win games on its own. The offense played poorly on Sunday and put the defense in the position to do what they could not. This defense can win a quarter, maybe even a half. But it cannot win an entire game.

The injury to Aqib Talib exposed how shallow the Patriots are at CB. How many NFL teams would have Kyle Arrington as a starting CB? How many would have Marquice Cole on the roster at all? Hopefully in the 2013 season, the Patriots will not be one of those teams.

When was the last time this team won a tough playoff game? Last year's AFC Championship was tough, but Billy Cundiff helped. The week before that they demolished Denver 45-10. The last difficult playoff game the Patriots won without the help of a choking kicker was the 2007 AFC Championship against San Diego. That seems like a lifetime ago.

This team has the talent to contend for Championships every year. Their execution, however, is inconsistent. Wes Welker had a great game, but dropped a huge pass on 3rd and 7. Brandon Lloyd could have made a few more catches. Tom Brady threw more than a few balls off the mark.

And give credit to Baltimore. They took advantage. They swatted Brady's passes, their offense adjusted in the second half, they deserved to win.

The biggest difference between the 2001 to 2004 Patriots and the 2007 to 2012 Patriots can be measured by a handful of big plays that were made in '01, '03, and '04; and weren't made in '07, '11, and now the 2012 season. It's as simple as that. The talent, the coaching, the intelligence is there. And it will be there next season.

I can't wait for training camp.

Photo Credit:
The Associated Press

It's Hard Not to Be Ridiculously Optimistic About the Patriots

I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high. I'm trying to stay grounded the week before the AFC Championship game. I'm reminding myself of the 2009 playoffs when Baltimore came here and beat the Pats. Despite the effort to prevent over-optimism, I just can't help myself. Here's why:

The Ravens have played 9+ quarters of playoff football in 2 weeks. Their key defensive players are old, and will have to keep pace with a frequently up-tempo Patriots offense, which has played 4 quarters in 2 weeks. At some point attrition must take its toll.

Joe Flacco is Baltimore's quarterback. He's hit or miss, sometimes great, sometimes completely ineffective. The Ravens are good enough to win without him (See the aforementioned 2009 playoff game against New England), but after two great playoff performances, he's overdue to crap the bed.

The Patriots have a much better secondary than in their Week 3 loss to Baltimore. Flacco threw for 382 in that 31-30 Ravens win. That was when Devin McCourty was a cornerback, not a safety. Aqib Talib was a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. And Alfonzo Dennard was out with a hamstring injury. Baltimore had 10 pass plays of 20+ yards in that game, 4 of 30+ yards, and 2 40+ yarders. Not to mention a 27 yard pass interference penalty on McCourty.

Now, with Talib and Dennard as the corners, and McCourty as a safety, things are much better. The defense keeps the play in front of them. They tackle well. Talib can play man coverage. Which is more likely, Flacco throwing for 380 yards? Or being intercepted by McCourty?

I'm not being a Dan Shauhgnessy and guaranteeing a steamroll victory. I actually think the game will be close until the 4th quarter. And the Patriots can certainly lose. They can fumble the ball, miss tackles, get confused on coverage, and make enough mistakes to allow Baltimore to win.

But if the Patriots play at or near their best, then how can Baltimore win? How can Joe Flacco and a tired defense prevail? It seems impossible.

Patriots Tame Colts

I like Andrew Luck. I liked him at Stanford. And as much as I also liked RG3, I felt like Luck was a better NFL QB because he was a better decision maker. And maybe someday that decision making ability will come to fruition. But not yesterday. Yesterday, Mr. Luck was a walking turnover.

The much-maligned Patriots defense turned this game around in the 2nd quarter. They forced a 3 and out which led to Julian Edelman's punt return TD. Then Vince Wilfork's pressure influenced Andrew Luck to thrown an INT, which Aqib Talib returned for another TD.

In the 3rd quarter, the Patriots offense stepped up. Right after half-time they flawlessly drove downfield and scored. Then after Rob Ninkovich forced an Andrew Luck fumble, Brady hit Rob Gronkowski in the end zone. And the game was essentially over.

Alfonzo Dennard's pick 6 was icing on the cake, and the Patriots won the 4th quarter 21-7. He and Talib are actually legit CBs, and that's nice to have once again.

But already I can hear the armchair coaches out there. "Why was Gronk still in there?" "Why were we still scoring?" "Why do we have star players on PAT?"

Folks, it's a 60 minute game. And injuries are always a risk. You play 60 minutes, even with a big lead, so when you need to play 60 tough minutes you're accustomed to it. Please leave your amateur coaching strategies where they belong, inside your brain, along with your theories about traffic on 128 and how you can do a better job than your boss.

Some people are already complaining about this 5 score victory. This Yahoo recap moaned about the Patriots defense being "suspect" and allowing 448 yards. Um, the defense also scored twice, forced 4 turnovers, that's a good day for a defense. Regardless of how many yards they allowed.

Let us be cheerful. The Pats have a 3 game lead over every AFC East team. They're playing the Jets on Thanksgiving, and it's an opportunity to all but eliminate the NYJ from the divisional race.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Trade for Aqib Talib

It's rare that NFL teams make much noise at the trade deadline, so even a whisper can seem deafening. Aqib Talib is a solid cornerback, who will become the top CB on the depth chart once he's able to play. He's currently serving a suspension for taking adderall without a prescription. He can return on the 18th.

Talib's status as the Patriots' #1 CB is more of a statement about the current stable of defensive backs as opposed to Talib's prowess at the position. Although when he stays out of trouble, Talib is a decent coverage corner. And the Patriots haven't had one of those for a few years.

It will be nice to have a smart CB for once. Someone who doesn't find themselves out of position. Someone who knows to turn their head when the ball is coming, in order to avoid PI penalties.

The Patriots gave up a 4th round pick for Talib, and received a 7th round selection.

Talib might not get the defense, as simple as it is. One never knows. And he could be charged with aggravated assault again. But to me this is low risk, medium-to-high reward. He can be a solid coverage corner, and Alfonzo Dennard is looking good. Devin McCourty can be shifted to safety.

He's a serious player in a defensive backfield full of jokes.

And if you're feeling depressed, just yell out "AQIB TALIB!" and you'll feel better. Trust me.