Broncos Overpay for Aqib Talib

It hurts losing one of your best players in free agency. It really hurts losing him to your toughest conference opponent. It's a sudden, shocking kind of hurt. Losing Talib is like having your hand smashed with a hammer. Hurts like hell but you'll heal. Bad contracts are like arthritis. Incessant, nagging pain that will last for years.

The Broncos signed Aqib Talib to a 6-year deal worth $57 million, $26 million of which is guaranteed.

That's $9.5 million a year for Talib. Which is too much.

That's a 6-year deal for Talib. Which is too long.

That's $26 million guaranteed to Talib. Which is too much.

It's just a bad deal any way you slice it.

I'm not happy to see him go, especially to Denver, but I wouldn't be happy making that deal. It's too much of an investment and a commitment, especially considering Talib's health issues and the potential for on-field and off-field issues.

And no, losing Talib doesn't mean the Patriots MUST sign or trade for Darrelle Revis. While they do need cornerbacks, you don't need an amazing CB to win. And having an amazing CB doesn't automatically make you a winner. The Patriots do need to improve the position. Even if Talib had stayed in Foxborough, I thought the Patriots needed more experience and depth at the position.

When the Pats have lost Talib to injury, their lack of depth has been exposed. Overpaying Talib doesn't help add depth.

The Patriots also need a better pass rush. They need to reduce the time their defensive backs have to cover opposing receivers. Spending too much on Talib would have meant having less to spend on this pass rush. Or wherever it is the Patriots spend the money they would have spent on Talib.

The Patriots also need receivers who can hold their own in battles against guys like Talib and other good DBs. The Pats need strong, physical receivers. Steve Smith comes to mind. What a diabolical pick-up that would be to put Steve Smith out there against Talib when the Patriots and Broncos play.

Overpaying Talib would have made it more difficult for the Patriots to improve elsewhere.

I am anticipating the pained whines and moans of Patriots fans this morning. "Couldn't the Patriots have made the leap from 8 million to 9.5? How much of a difference is 1.5?" "Another big name out the door." "When will this team spend on their free agents?" "I'm sick of it." "In Bill we trust."

I'm also anticipating the angry and emotional demands of the fanbase. "Get Revis. NOW!"

Yesterday's optimism as NFL free agency began and the sun shone down on New England, has been shattered by cruel reality. It's sunny and mild in Denver today. It's rainy and cold here. Let Denver enjoy this brief sunshine. This contract will burn them.

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Peyton Manning Taking His Talents to the Rocky Mountains

The Broncos acquiring Peyton Manning makes an absurd amount of sense for both parties. John Elway and the Broncos front office know that Tebow was actually one of their team's biggest weaknesses. They've always harbored doubts, even in the midst of Tebowmania. Manning gives the Broncos a legit QB, and nobody can argue that this isn't an improvement over Tebow. So the public outcry won't be overwhelming. And for Peyton, he stays in the AFC, and is on a playoff team. A team that actually won in the playoffs.

Not even the Archbishop of the Church of Tebow can argue that this isn't an improvement for the Broncos. Tebow, for as many games as he won for the Broncos, was also a prime culprit in their losses. He couldn't consistently drive the ball down the field and score. He couldn't even consistently get 1st downs. When the defense was able to give him a chance late in games, Tebow could win. But that winning was dependent on the defense. He could finish a victory started by his teammates. He wasn't, however, good enough to initiate victory.

Peyton is. At least he has been in the past. For every Tebowist who spouts "All Tebow does is win," Mr. Manning has about 140 more wins than Mr. Tebow. Manning has won games for team's with horrible defenses. He can survive in an offensive shootout. In fact he thrives in them.

Denver can provide Manning with a good offensive line. Not only does that protect Manning, it allows him to go through his progressions and find the open man. He is a great enough QB to turn mediocre receivers into good ones, good receivers into great ones, and great receivers into Hall of Famers. So I wouldn't worry about Denver's lack of household name WRs. He'll be on a playoff team in a soft division. He has some raw material to work with in Denver. There is plenty of room for improvement, but he's quite capable of improving it.

What do the Broncos do with Tebow? Manning certainly isn't the long-term solution at quarterback, and nobody is absolutely 100% certain if Manning can play, let alone play well. The Broncos could keep Tebow as insurance/QB-of-the-future. They could also trade him. Which makes this acquisition even smarter for them. How many teams dramatically improve themselves AND acquire additional draft picks with one move?

The NFL's schedules aren't set yet, but in addition to playing their AFC West rivals, the Broncos will host Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. They'll travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, Atlanta, and Carolina.

Not an easy schedule.