Ignorant College Football Picks*

Well, my picks were 7-9 last week, which drops my record below bowl eligibility at 22-23. But I have faith that we will get back to bowl eligibility. We will get to the Insight.com Bowl!

Anyway, here are my picks for Week 7 of college football...

Louisville -2.5 @ Pittsburgh
The game is being played at 11:00am. Why? Nobody knows. Scholars speculate...

Rutgers -7.5 vs. Syracuse
SU sucks.

Iowa State +7 vs. Kansas State
Iowa experiences crazy wind in October. Wind sometimes equals wins.

Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas (Dallas, TX)
As if I'd pick against OU in the Red River Shootout. Boomer! Sooner!

Wisconsin +2 @ Purdue
Because this isn't a train making competition.

Auburn +5.5 @ Ole Miss
Two bad teams squaring off. Pick the underdog.

UConn -5.5 vs. Temple
Why not? Dogs eat owls, right?

Miami +8 vs. North Carolina
Just because the spread is so high and Miami is at home. Probably a bad pick.

Maryland +1.5 @ Virginia
Don't respect UVA.

Alabama -21 @ Missouri
Sounds right. Close game early but Bama pulls away.

West Virginia -3.5 @ Texas Tech
Might be a 200 point game, but WVU should win by more than 3.5.

Stanford +7 @ Notre Dame
I haven't believed in ND all season, even though I probably should.

Florida State -28 vs. Boston College
Why not?

Florida -8.5 @ Vanderbilt
Also, why not?

Washington +13 vs. USC
Just a hunch.

LSU -2.5 vs. South Carolina
Don't think much of LSU, but it's home, it's night, it's their game to lose.

The Least Entertaining Postseason in Sports

I could go on and on about how sketchy and stupid college football's bowl system is. I could point out what's been pointed out a billion times and say "we need a playoff." And I think I might start writing a book on the tyranny of the bowls and how they unjustly control college football's postseason. In this little article though, I'm just going to point out a simple fact:

College football's postseason is the least entertaining of all postseasons in major sports.

The Stanley Cup playoffs are amazing. I'm not much of a basketball fan but the NBA playoffs usually draw me in for a weeks. March Madness might be my favorite sporting event of the year. MLB playoff games are tense and pressure filled. And the NFL playoffs are thrilling.

There's something about earning the right to extend a season. There's something special about hockey in June, baseball in October, and football in February. And there's something even more special about teams fighting tooth and nail for that right to play one more game.

Compare that to bowl games. Which can sometimes be entertaining to watch. But then the victors' season is over. Just as over as the team they beat. There's nothing more to win than a trophy and a t-shirt. There's no survival, no advancement to next week's round.

Imagine if last night's Broncos/Steelers game were a bowl game. It would have still been fun to watch. But without anything more than a trophy awarded to the winner, it's not nearly as exciting as a playoff win. We'd forget all about it in a few weeks as the #1 Packers played the #2 Patriots for the national title. While the Saints played in the Rose Bowl and the Broncos played in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

We've seen some entertaining bowl games. And tonight's might also be fun to watch. But how much more fun would it be to see the winner of tonight's game play Oklahoma State? How about Stanford playing Boise State? How much more enjoyable would the previous bowls been if the winner won the right to survive for another week?

College football might have the most exciting regular season of all sports. But it's postseason is the least entertaining.

Perfect Weekend for Alabama

I thought it was impossible, but it looks like Alabama and LSU are bound for a rematch. Oklahoma State couldn't handle lowly Iowa State, then Oregon and Oklahoma lost their second games of the year, effectively eliminating them from title contention.

So if LSU takes care of business against Arkansas (then Georgia), and Alabama beats Auburn, it looks like we'll have a rematch between two SEC West opponents. Who else could it be?

Oklahoma State? Even if they beat Oklahoma, they don't have the quality wins. Beating OU doesn't have the same amount of weight as it would have.

Virginia Tech? Is winning the ACC that impressive? Besides, for VT to finish with one loss, they'd have to beat Clemson, which would be their biggest win. They also lost to Clemson. Not too impressive.

How about Stanford? Well they nearly lost to Cal, and their loss to Oregon looks worse after the Ducks lost to USC.

Boise State? Please.

Houston? They're undefeated. It sucks that in this system that they won't get a shot, but how would they do in the SEC West?

The reason Alabama deserves another shot is because they're the answer to a question. It's a question I've never asked when thinking about BCS title contenders until now. If LSU are the undisputed #1 team in the country, who has the best chance to beat them? It's not Stanford, not Houston, not Oklahoma State.

It's Alabama.

The Tide have the best chance among the one-loss teams to beat the Tigers. They should have beaten them if not for Nick Saban going with a weirdly timed wildcat trick play. They are the clear #2 team in the country, so long as LSU is #1.

Of course, things once again get messy if Arkansas beats LSU. Or if Auburn beats Bama.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

LSU vs. Oklahoma State... Unless...*

Stanford lost. Boise State lost. The only unbeatens left are LSU, Oklahoma State, and Houston. With Houston's schedule, they're not going to get a national title shot without lots of help. So the Championship game will be LSU's stifling defense (allowing 10.7 points per game), against Oklahoma State's relentless offense (scoring 51.7 per game). Unless either of them lose, of course.

And that's possible. LSU still has to play #6 Arkansas. Oklahoma State must face #5 Oklahoma. If either team fails to win these big games (or any other game), then the BCS becomes a mess. And based on the history of the BCS, I think we're destined for a mess.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, how do you shut them out of the title game? How about Oregon, who only lost to LSU? What about Alabama, who only lost to LSU? Then again, if your only loss is to LSU, doesn't that mean you had an opportunity to win a title shot and failed? Is it more damaging to lose to a contender than it is to lose to a random team like Texas Tech? Should it be more damaging?

If LSU and Oklahoma State run the table, then the BCS has done its job. If not, then a playoff would be the only answer to solve the National Championship puzzle.

BCS Standings

Alabama might be the 3rd best team in the country, maybe the 2nd best. I like Alabama. But they've had their shot. And they blew it. They missed field goals, ran a foolish trick play and couldn't score a touchdown in the biggest game of their season. Maybe they're better than Stanford, and certainly better than Boise State. But the Tide had a shot and lost. Other teams deserve a shot.

Here's the BCS rankings after this weekend's games:

1. LSU Tigers - Can't argue against this, but there's still one AP voter that selected Boise State as #1. What the fuck?

2. Oklahoma State Cowboys - 50.1 points per game, they still have to get through Iowa State, Texas Tech, and #6 Oklahoma.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide - They've beaten #8 Arkansas, #12 Penn State, but they have no offense apart from Richardson.

4. Stanford Cardinal - If they beat #7 Oregon this weekend, how can you argue against them rising to 3rd?

5. Boise State Broncos - As #15 Georgia rises in the rankings, Boise State starts looking legitimate.

6. Oklahoma Sooners - They can spoil Oklahoma State's title hopes but they lost Ryan Broyles, so that will be tough.

7. Oregon Ducks - They've only lost to the #1 team in the country.

8. Arkansas Razorbacks - They've only lost to the #3 team in the country. If they can beat LSU on 11/25, then the SEC West will have eliminated itself from the National Championship.

9. Clemson Tigers - Can clinch the ACC Atlantic with a win on Saturday.

10. Virginia Tech Hokies - Their only loss came to Clemson. Who says the ACC isn't that good?

Imagine this playoff:
#1 LSU vs. #8 Arkansas
#2 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Oregon Ducks
#3 Alabama vs. #6 Oklahoma
#4 Stanford vs. #5 Boise State

It's too bad we won't see that play out.

College Football Summary: Week 5

Is it me or have the big games between top 10 teams been a little boring? One team always seems to build a huge lead and the game is decided before the 4th quarter even starts. Thankfully, you get surprisingly good games like Auburn/South Carolina. Here are the top stories from this weekend's games:

THE VOTERS ARE IDIOTS
Someone in the AP Poll voted Boise State #1. That means that they've seen LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma play and were not as impressed by any of them as they were by Boise State. LSU has beaten Oregon and West Virginia. Alabama has beaten Florida and Arkansas and is allowing 8.4 points per game. Boise State beat Georgia, which is a solid win, but I don't know how anyone could not vote for LSU, Alabama, or Oklahoma as the best team in the country.

LSU HAS THE DEFENSE, OKLAHOMA HAS THE OFFENSE, ALABAMA HAS THE POISE
The LSU/Alabama game on November 5th looks like it will be a national title quarterfinal game, with the winner going to the SEC Championship game (national title semifinal). LSU's defense is capable of shutting anyone down.

The Sooners fell to #3 despite destroying Ball State 62-6, but that's understandable considering what LSU and Bama have done. OU is averaging over 40 points per game, and they'll get a chance for an impressive win if they can beat Texas on Saturday.

Alabama does not get phased. They looked more comfortable playing in the intensity of Gainesville than the Gators were. They've been to big games, they play in the SEC spotlight every week. They execute under pressure, and as talented as LSU and OU are, Alabama's poise gives the Tide the edge.

WISCONSIN IS FOR REAL
The Badgers were 4-0 against some weak opposition before Saturday. They crushed Nebraska and are now leading the way in the Big Ten. However, they've yet to play on the road. We saw how Nebraska fell into quicksand in Madison and Wisconsin will be just as vulnerable when they leave home. They've got tough trips to East Lansing and Columbus this month. And a meeting with #19 Illinois in Champaign in November.

CLEMSON IS FOR REAL
I had my doubts because they're so young, but Clemson is clearly the class of the ACC. They've beaten Florida State and Virginia Tech, not to mention a win against Auburn. They're just a solid team, and that is good enough to win the ACC by a mile. Georgia Tech is the only other viable contender in the conference. Not only do the Yellow Jackets run the ball well (378.2 rush yards per game), they've figured out how to occasionally yet effectively pass it (208.8 pass yards per game). They'll host Clemson on October 29th, and these two might meet again on December 3rd (ACC title game).

THE SEC WEST IS THE BEST
Auburn beat SEC East contender South Carolina. Alabama beat SEC East contender Florida. Both wins came on the road. Meanwhile, SEC West contender Arkansas beat Texas A&M in Arlington. The SEC West was 5-1 this weekend, even though 5 of 6 teams played on the road. When A&M joins the SEC, they'll likely be in the West. And after a few weeks in that division they might get homesick for the Big XII and games against Baylor and Iowa State.

DOES ANYONE CARE ABOUT THE BIG EAST?
If every Big East game this weekend were cancelled, would you notice or care? I wouldn't. The Big East is looking into expansion, but I can't imagine any BCS teams that would want to leave the Big Ten, ACC, or SEC to join the Big East.

RG3 FOR HEISMAN
Baylor's Robert Griffin III got picked off for the first time all season on Saturday, and it cost the Bears a win against K-State. That being said, he threw 5 TD passes before that, and his defense couldn't keep the Wildcats out of the end zone. Baylor only has a limited rushing game to run time off the clock.

RG3 completes 82% of his passes, he has 18 TDs and 1 INT, he's thrown for 1,308 yards. He's on pace to throw 54 TDs, 3 picks, and over 3,900 yards. He is the entire Baylor team. The Bears have the 84th ranked scoring defense. Griffin is responsible for 67% of Baylor's total offense (1,308 passing yards, 173 rushing yards, out of 2,211 total for Baylor). He is 2/3 of the 4th best offense in the country. He's scored 19 of their 25 offensive touchdowns.

I know there are plenty of other worthy Heisman hopefuls with gaudy stats on teams that will contend for the national title. But the fact that Griffin is the entirety of his team's offense and is solely responsible for a mediocre program being in the Top 25, makes him Heisman material. For me, at least.

College Football Summary: Week 3

This was one of the most surprising weekends of college football. Preseason preconceptions have now become misconceptions. And Oklahoma has finally won a big road game. And right now, it seems like OU and LSU are on a collision course. Here are the headlines from Week 3...

MISSISSIPPI STATE ISN'T AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT THEY WERE
The Bulldogs are decent, but they won't fare well against the powerhouses in the SEC West. They won't move the ball against those top level defenses. It's kind of a shame that they're in such a stacked division. They're already 0-2 in the SEC and finishing 4-4 would be a relative success for this program.

LSU IS AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT THEY WERE

Their defense is sick. I know it's still September, but a matchup between LSU's defense and OU's offense would be great to see. LSU has already beaten Oregon, they just won an SEC West road game. They still have trips to Morgantown and Tuscaloosa. If they go through their schedule with 1 or even 2 losses, it's tough to deny them a national title bid.

BOISE STATE IS BETTER THAN TOLEDO
Boise State runs up the score against bad teams and they wind up as #4 in the country. Big fucking deal. I'm not impressed.

OKLAHOMA DESERVES TO BE #1
It's tough to argue against LSU being #1, but Oklahoma beat a very good Florida State team on the road. Had LSU's win over Oregon been in Eugene, things might be different.

THE BIG TEN ISN'T AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT THEY WERE
Michigan State lost to Notre Dame, Ohio State lost to Miami. Iowa already lost to Iowa State. Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, and Illinois are the only undefeated teams left. Nebraska should roll over this overrated league.

MAYBE THE ACC IS BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT

Clemson beat Auburn. Miami beat Ohio State. Granted, Florida State lost to Oklahoma and Maryland lost to West Virginia, but those two teams are likely to win their conferences. I'm not saying the ACC is on par with the SEC or the Big XII, but they might be as good as the Big Ten.

WE NEED A PLAYOFF SYSTEM... BADLY
Imagine a simple, top 8 playoff system. These would be the matchups.

#1 Oklahoma vs. #8 Texas A&M
#2 LSU vs. #7 Oklahoma State
#3 Alabama vs. #6 Wisconsin
#4 Boise State vs. #5 Stanford

Tell me you wouldn't be glued to the TV.

College Football Summary: Week 1

Week 1 rarely teaches us much, and by the time November comes, we usually don't remember nor care what happened. That's why it's kind of smart for some programs to schedule big non-conference games in Week 1. A win gives them momentum and can solidify their spot in the rankings (and get them TV games later in the year). A loss can be forgotten by the time the rankings really matter.

Here's what we learned about the 2011 season:

1. ROBERT GRIFIN III (RG3) IS FOR REAL, SO IS BAYLOR

This is an important year for Baylor. The Big XII is on the verge of disintegration, which will leave Baylor's fate up in the air. If they can win some games, make some noise, and get to a decent bowl game, then they can have some decent options for which conference they want to go to next. I'm thinking they might replace TCU in the Mountain West.

Anyway, RG3 threw for 359 yards and 5 TDs, he also ran for 38 yards, and caught a pass for 15. Not bad at all.

2. NOTRE DAME IS OVERRATED

It's shocking that people would rank Notre Dame higher than they belong. Absolutely baffling. If the Irish can't handle USF in their own backyard, how will they handle trips to Ann Arbor and Stanford, as well as visits from Michigan State and USC?

3. LSU IS VERY VERY GOOD

The SEC West is wide open. LSU just joined Alabama and Arkansas as the leading contenders. They dominated Oregon in a semi-neutral location (Baton Rouge is 450 miles from Arlington, Eugene is 2,000 miles away). It's almost impossible to go undefeated in the SEC, so having a big win like that already in the bank can help give the Tigers a national title berth, even with 1 loss or perhaps 2.

4. OREGON CAN'T WIN BIG GAMES
The Ducks weren't terribly outplayed, but they made huge mistakes at the worst points of the game and at the worst spots on the field. 4 turnovers, 12 penalties, and another loss to an SEC defense. The Ducks fly high when they're much more talented than their opponent, but when they face equal talent, they have yet to demonstrate the character it takes to win big games.

5. ONLY ONE TEAM CAN WEAR SILLY UNIFORMS

Speaking of Oregon, only they can wear silly threads and look cool. That's because their uniform was ridiculous to begin with. Forest green with lime green writing? Why not modify that? But when teams with traditional colors and standard uniforms try to copy Oregon's creativity, it never works out. Georgia's uniforms were so ugly, that they even failed at being ugly. Maryland's looked like a nightmare, Boise State's were ugly AND boring. Every team will try to imitate the Ducks, but only Oregon is Oregon.

6. USC'S DEFENSE ACTUALLY DID SOMETHING POSITIVE
It's hard to be impressed by a 19-17 home win over lowly Minnesota, but USC did something in this game that they notoriously failed to do in 2010: their defense made a big play at the end, instead of choking down the stretch. In the Pete Carrol days, USC won with their defense. Their current incarnation might not be as athletic or as dominant, but at least they apparently no longer will cost the Trojans any games.

7. LIGHTNING SUCKS

Lightning seemed to effect about half of the games this weekend. It was a rare set of circumstances with several large weather systems covering the country. As the season progresses, and the weather cools down, lightning will stop being a factor.

8. IT'S GOING TO BE A LONG YEAR ON CHESTNUT HILL
The Eagles amassed 479 yards of offense, including 375 from QB Chase Rettig. But the BC quarterback couldn't get the ball into the endzone, and the eagles lost to a mediocre team that had a backup QB under center. Now BC travels to Orlando to play UCF, who won 11 games last year. A loss to UCF, and the Eagles can kiss bowl eligibility goodbye.

College Football Preview: SEC*

The SEC West is once again the most formidable division in all of college football. And what makes the SEC so strong is that almost every team is at least solid. Put Kentucky in the Big East and they'd contend for the title. Predicting the SEC winner is about the same as prediction one of the two teams in the National Championship Game...

1. Arkansas Razorbacks

The Hogs are strong at WR and RB, but Ryan Mallett is simply irreplaceable. But while the offense will take a step back due to this loss, the defense will take a huge step forward thanks to a flock of talented veterans.

Key Games:
9/24 @ Alabama
10/1 vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX)
11/5 vs. South Carolina
11/19 vs. Mississippi State (in Little Rock, AR)
11/25 @ LSU

Prediction: 12-1, SEC West winner, SEC Champion, National Championship contender

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Bama will reload in the backfield with RB Trent Richardson, who ran for 700 yards last year. However, the QB position is still up in the air. A strong defensive line needs to emerge, as well. The defense was the strength of this team last year, and they still have excellent LBs and amazing DBs. Their schedule is as forgiving as it can get in the SEC West. They'll be great, just not good enough to beat Arkansas in September. It's far too early in the year for the offense to take shape and the defensive line to gel.

Key Games:
9/29 vs. Arkansas
11/5 vs. LSU
11/12 @ Mississippi State

Prediction: 10-2, 2nd in SEC West, BCS berth

3. South Carolina Gamecocks

SC brings back talent like RB Marcus Lattimore, who ran for 1,197 yards and 17 TDs as a freshman. There's also WR Alshon Jeffery, who had 1,517 receiving yards and 9 TDs as a sophomore. If the Cocks get consistent QB play, they'll be good to go on offense. The defense also needs consistency. They're in the "weaker" SEC East, and I think they'll be good enough to repeat as divisional winners.

Key Games
9/10 @ Georgia
10/15 @ Mississippi State
11/5 @ Arkansas

Prediction: 10-3, SEC East winner, SEC title game loser

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia is slightly overrated, as usual. But they do have an excellent young QB in Aaron Murray, who's entering his sophomore season after 3,000+ yards and 24 TDs as a freshman. He'll need the help of an untested WR cast, and the rushing offense needs to improve from being 10th in the SEC last year. Defensively, they've gotten more girth in the middle of the D-line, which should help them play their 3-4.

UGA is just good now, they'll be a powerhouse in 2012.

Key Games:
9/3 vs. Boise State (in Atlanta, GA)
9/10 vs. South Carolina
10/1 vs. Mississippi State

Prediction: 9-3, 2nd SEC East

5. LSU Tigers

Will QB Jordan Jefferson finish the season as the starter? That's up in the air. The Tigers' intermittent offense was why they lost to Auburn and Arkansas last year. And things don't get much better in the backfield as RB Stevan Ridley needs to be replaced. Defense will be the key to LSU's success, but defense can take you only so far. We'll get to see how good LSU's defense is this weekend.

Key Games:
9/3 vs. Oregon (in Arlington, TX)
9/15 @ Mississippi State
9/24 @ West Virginia
11/5 @ Alabama
11/25 vs. Arkansas

Prediction: 9-3

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs should have a balanced offense thanks to a rush game that's proved itself strong and an improved passing game. The defensive line will be the key to improving performance on the other side of the ball, and the LBs need to learn how to make plays fast. If the defense can stop the run, the Bulldogs can play ball with the big boys in the SEC West. This will not be an easy team to beat.

Key Games:
9/15 vs. LSU
10/1 @ Georgia
10/15 vs. South Carolina
11/12 @ Alabama
10/19 @ Arkansas (in Little Rock, AR)

Prediction: 9-3

7. Auburn Tigers

How good is the SEC? The defending National Champs are the 7th best team. Anyway, the Tigers only return 2 starters on offense, 3 on defense. RB Michael Dyer will be the workhorse of the offense. He ran for over 1,000 as a freshman. But questions surrounding the QB, WR, and line positions means it'll be a long year in Auburn.

There's only one senior starting on defense. In any other division in any other conference, Auburn would have a chance. But not with trips to Columbia, SC; Fayeteville, AR; Baton Rouge, LA; and Athens, GA.

Prediction: 7-5

8. Florida Gators

What a surprise, people are overrating Florida. But not me. Their offense is neither talented nor tested. Their defense returns only 3 starters and most players will need a full season to properly mature. They'll be tough to play, but they are quite beatable.

Prediction: 7-5

9. Kentucky Wildcats

UK lost its skill position talent. Defensively, they do have a star in LB Danny Trevathan, who made 144 tackles last year. Their defense is OK, and they'll perhaps be part of an upset that alters the outcome of the SEC.

Prediction: 6-6

10. Tennessee Volunteers

This is a year for the Vols' offense to improve after being 11th in the SEC. They have talented pieces, like sophomore QB Tyler Bray, who did well down the stretch in 2010. However, their defensive situation is utterly disorganized. They could make a bowl game in 2011, and they could do much more in 2012.

Prediction: 5-7

11. Ole Miss Rebels

One player sums up Ole Miss' football program. And that one player is RB Brandon Bolden who is the leading returning passer (1/1 for 7 yards), rusher (163 carries, 976 yards, 14 TDs), and receiver (34 catches, 344 yards, 3 TDs). He's the only talent at the skill-positions. He'll at least have a decent line to run behind. Defensively, the Rebels will be toyed with by their 5 bigger brothers in the SEC West.

12. Vanderbilt Commodores

The Commodores return 10 offensive starters... unfortunately. Because they were 112th in scoring last year and 110th in total yardage. On the plus side, they were 80th in rushing yards. The quality they have on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield will keep teams from blowing them out too badly, but that'll only affect the spread, and not much more.

Prediction: 2-10