The Best Thursday Night Lineup in College Football History?

Tonight four Top 10 BCS teams will play in a pair of games with massive National Championship implications. Have four Top 10 BCS teams ever played each other on a Thursday night before? I don't no, nor do I care.

At 7:30pm Eastern on Fox Sports 1, undefeated Baylor hosts 7-1 Oklahoma. The Bears are ranked 6th in the BCS and in order to keep any National Championship hopes alive, they must win out. They're also in a tight conference battle in the Big 12. Oklahoma is also involved in that fight with a 4-1 conference record. The #10 Sooners must beat Baylor then hope Texas (5-0 in the Big 12) lose in the conference.

At 9:00pm on ESPN, #5 Stanford hosts #3 Oregon. The Cardinal are Oregon's biggest roadblock to an undefeated season and possible National Championship berth. Stanford have the 19th best scoring defense, allowing less than 20 points per game. The Ducks have the 2nd best offense in the country, averaging 55.6 points per game. Tonight will be the hardest test for both units.

Every year, the Ducks find a way to lose a pivotal game. They lost to Stanford 17-14 in overtime last season, LSU and USC in 2011, the BCS title game in 2010, Boise State and Stanford in '09, Boise State, Stanford, and Cal in 2008, and so on. They're 64-10 since '08, but with 0 National titles, and only 2 BCS bowl wins.

The Ducks don't finish.

I think Oregon loses a close game, probably due to some special teams mistake. And Oklahoma upends Baylor in a not-so-close game. Then huge sighs of relief will rise up from Tuscaloosa, Tallahassee, and Columbus.

Bowl Previews: This Week's Bowls*

We've got quite a few bowl games this week. Two today, two tomorrow, two Thursday, Then even more as New Year's approaches. My record for picking these games hasn't been bad. 3-5. Better than I was doing with picks earlier in the year.

Today - 4:30 PM - ESPN
Little Caesars Bowl - Detroit, MI
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-3)
WMU has a good offense, but a poor defense. They can throw the ball. Purdue is in the middle of the pack defensively and offensively. The polite word is "balanced," the appropriate word is "mediocre." Kalamazoo is only 2 and a half hours from Detroit. I think WMU has the edge in this game.

WMU +3

Tonight - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Belk Bowl - Charlotte, NC
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack (PK)
UL lost to Florida Int'l, and Marshall. NC State lost to BC. Neither of these teams impresses me. NC State will have the crowd behind them. Louisville will struggle to put up points. I'll take a 4-4 ACC team over a 5-2 Big East team.

NC State (pick 'em)

Wednesday - 4:30 PM - ESPN
Military Bowl, presented by Northrup Grumman - Washington, DC
Toledo Rockets (-3) vs. Air Force Falcons
Toledo lost 4 games. To Boise State, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Northern Illinois. That's not awful for a MAC team. That loss to NIU was 63-60, which sums up Toledo's greatest strength (their offense) and biggest weakness (defense). Air Force doesn't have a defense that's anything special. They can run the ball (320.3 yards per game), so either they'll keep the ball away from Toledo's explosive offense, or they'll fall behind and need to chew up clock to catch up. Air Force isn't equipped to take full advantage of Toledo's porous defense.

Toledo -3.

Wednesday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
California Golden Bears vs. #24 Texas Longhorns (-3)
Cals 7-5 record was inflated by wins against some bad teams. Texas is in a similar boat, only not as bad. The Longhorns have more talent in this battle of mediocrity. They also crushed UCLA, whereas Cal lost to the Bruins.

Texas -3

Thursday - 5:30 PM - ESPN
Champ Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL
Florida State Seminoles (-3) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Two powerhouse programs that were expected to do well in 2011 but fell very short. I simply do not believe in Notre Dame. Sure, they won 8 games, they beat Michigan State, but their schedule is packed with bad teams. BC, Maryland, Purdue. FSU, on paper, is a much better team. And they'll be the better team on the field as well.

FSU -3

Thursday - 9:00 PM - ESPN
Washington Huskies vs. Baylor Bears (-9.5)
Washington lost to pretty much every good team in the Pac-12. They allow 33.3 points per game, which does not bode well for a matchup against RG3 and the Bears of Baylor. This game should see plenty of points. But Baylor will have more of them. Much more of them.

Baylor -9.5

RG3 Wins Heisman

Isn't it weird that the Heisman selects 5 finalists, and the BCS selects only 2? Maybe the BCS could learn something from the Heisman.

Robert Griffin III won the Heisman, by a significant margin over Andrew Luck, who finished 2nd for the second straight year. RG3 is Baylor's first Heisman winner, despite Baylor losing 3 games. Griffin won because of his "wow factor." He was by far the most electrifying of the potential winners.

Half his TD passes were for 35+ yards. He was the entire Baylor offense, and essentially the entire Baylor team. He won shootout games with his arm and with his legs. When Baylor was on TV, you had to watch, regardless of the opponent or score.

Andrew Luck is the best NFL prospect precisely because he's not as exciting. He's consistent, solid, mistake-free. He surgically dissects opposing defenses. RG3, on the other hand, slices and slashes through opposing defenses with a chainsaw.

Trent Richardson was as solid, dependable, and relentlessly powerful as you'd expect an Alabama runningback to be. He did his job, and did it well, scoring 20 TDs against notoriously stingy SEC defenses. He was the most productive offensive player on a team playing for a National Championship. He was a workhorse. But workhorses aren't as exciting as racing thoroughbreds. And that's what RG3 was.

Montee Ball was like Richardson, only he wasn't as well known at the start of the season, and didn't play for as good of a team. His 38 touchdowns weren't just against weak competition. He scored in every single game. He had four games with 4 TDs. He also had wide highways to run through thanks to Wisconsin's line. Ball entered Heisman discussion a bit after RG3 did. And while 38 TDs is impressive, RG3 threw for 36, and ran for 9. Which is more exciting, a 10 yard rushing TD or a 40 yard passing TD?

Tyrann Mathieu did have some of the most exciting plays on his highlight reel. But the reel is too short. I would love to see a defensive player win the Heisman again, but it won't happen unless they return half a dozen punts for a touchdown. Mathieu was electric, but he was just a few sparks here and there, while RG3 was a raging inferno every week.

So Griffin III won the Heisman. He's a junior. He might stay at Baylor and try to make a BCS Bowl. He might enter the Draft. If I were an NFL GM, I'd take Luck first, but I wouldn't complain about being "stuck" with Robert Griffin III.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

The Worst Timeout Ever

Last week, Rex Ryan called the timeout Mark Sanchez took just before halftime "The stupidest play in football history." Bob Stoops rewrote those history books Saturday night, when he called timeout with 51 seconds left in a tied game while Baylor possessed the ball. The Bears were content to go into overtime, as they had no timeouts. I guess Stoops wanted to force a 3-and-out, get the ball back with 40 seconds, and try to win in regulation (with no timeouts left).

Two problems with that:
#1: The OU defense had only forced two 3-and-out drives (one was 4-and-out) all game.
#2: Robert Griffin III had been torching Oklahoma's defense all night.

Robert Griffin III proceeded to punish Stoops' greed and arrogance with a 5 play, 80 yard drive ending with a 34 yard TD pass.

Stoops could have gone into overtime. And if you believe your team is the best, why not do that? That way, even if RG3 beats you, there's a chance to respond. The Bears had the ball on the 20, and only needed 47 yards to reach their kicker's range of 50 to win the game. Baylor had already amassed 536 yards of offense.

Bob Stoops cost his team a spot in the National Championship Debate, which would have raged for weeks. Now they must run the table just to win the Big XII.

College Football Summary: Week 5

Is it me or have the big games between top 10 teams been a little boring? One team always seems to build a huge lead and the game is decided before the 4th quarter even starts. Thankfully, you get surprisingly good games like Auburn/South Carolina. Here are the top stories from this weekend's games:

THE VOTERS ARE IDIOTS
Someone in the AP Poll voted Boise State #1. That means that they've seen LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma play and were not as impressed by any of them as they were by Boise State. LSU has beaten Oregon and West Virginia. Alabama has beaten Florida and Arkansas and is allowing 8.4 points per game. Boise State beat Georgia, which is a solid win, but I don't know how anyone could not vote for LSU, Alabama, or Oklahoma as the best team in the country.

LSU HAS THE DEFENSE, OKLAHOMA HAS THE OFFENSE, ALABAMA HAS THE POISE
The LSU/Alabama game on November 5th looks like it will be a national title quarterfinal game, with the winner going to the SEC Championship game (national title semifinal). LSU's defense is capable of shutting anyone down.

The Sooners fell to #3 despite destroying Ball State 62-6, but that's understandable considering what LSU and Bama have done. OU is averaging over 40 points per game, and they'll get a chance for an impressive win if they can beat Texas on Saturday.

Alabama does not get phased. They looked more comfortable playing in the intensity of Gainesville than the Gators were. They've been to big games, they play in the SEC spotlight every week. They execute under pressure, and as talented as LSU and OU are, Alabama's poise gives the Tide the edge.

WISCONSIN IS FOR REAL
The Badgers were 4-0 against some weak opposition before Saturday. They crushed Nebraska and are now leading the way in the Big Ten. However, they've yet to play on the road. We saw how Nebraska fell into quicksand in Madison and Wisconsin will be just as vulnerable when they leave home. They've got tough trips to East Lansing and Columbus this month. And a meeting with #19 Illinois in Champaign in November.

CLEMSON IS FOR REAL
I had my doubts because they're so young, but Clemson is clearly the class of the ACC. They've beaten Florida State and Virginia Tech, not to mention a win against Auburn. They're just a solid team, and that is good enough to win the ACC by a mile. Georgia Tech is the only other viable contender in the conference. Not only do the Yellow Jackets run the ball well (378.2 rush yards per game), they've figured out how to occasionally yet effectively pass it (208.8 pass yards per game). They'll host Clemson on October 29th, and these two might meet again on December 3rd (ACC title game).

THE SEC WEST IS THE BEST
Auburn beat SEC East contender South Carolina. Alabama beat SEC East contender Florida. Both wins came on the road. Meanwhile, SEC West contender Arkansas beat Texas A&M in Arlington. The SEC West was 5-1 this weekend, even though 5 of 6 teams played on the road. When A&M joins the SEC, they'll likely be in the West. And after a few weeks in that division they might get homesick for the Big XII and games against Baylor and Iowa State.

DOES ANYONE CARE ABOUT THE BIG EAST?
If every Big East game this weekend were cancelled, would you notice or care? I wouldn't. The Big East is looking into expansion, but I can't imagine any BCS teams that would want to leave the Big Ten, ACC, or SEC to join the Big East.

RG3 FOR HEISMAN
Baylor's Robert Griffin III got picked off for the first time all season on Saturday, and it cost the Bears a win against K-State. That being said, he threw 5 TD passes before that, and his defense couldn't keep the Wildcats out of the end zone. Baylor only has a limited rushing game to run time off the clock.

RG3 completes 82% of his passes, he has 18 TDs and 1 INT, he's thrown for 1,308 yards. He's on pace to throw 54 TDs, 3 picks, and over 3,900 yards. He is the entire Baylor team. The Bears have the 84th ranked scoring defense. Griffin is responsible for 67% of Baylor's total offense (1,308 passing yards, 173 rushing yards, out of 2,211 total for Baylor). He is 2/3 of the 4th best offense in the country. He's scored 19 of their 25 offensive touchdowns.

I know there are plenty of other worthy Heisman hopefuls with gaudy stats on teams that will contend for the national title. But the fact that Griffin is the entirety of his team's offense and is solely responsible for a mediocre program being in the Top 25, makes him Heisman material. For me, at least.

Baylor Trying to Save the Big XII

The SEC voted to invite Texas A&M to join their ranks. But before the Home of the 12th Man can be the SEC's 13th member, they're going to have to go through Baylor. One contingency of the SEC's invitation is that there be no legal challenges or roadblocks stopping A&M or any team the SEC decides to invite. Baylor, however, has decided to mount a legal challenge.

It makes sense for Texas A&M to join the SEC, especially with the threat of Oklahoma and Texas joining the Pac-12. It makes sense for the SEC to invite A&M, who has quality programs in multiple sports, and would also help open the state of Texas to SEC recruiters.

Baylor's decision to try to stop this also makes sense. The Big XII is about to be ripped apart, and Baylor will likely be one of the leftovers remaining. They'll likely be invited to the Mountain West, which is respectable, but it's not the BCS. The money that bowl games and TV contracts give to BCS conferences is ridiculous, and that money gets divided evenly by all members of the conference.

To be blunt, Baylor's been getting paid big money thanks to the likes of Texas and Oklahoma. I know they want to keep that money coming, but the reality is that TV dollars now dictate conference alignment, not geography and tradition.

College Football Summary: Week 1

Week 1 rarely teaches us much, and by the time November comes, we usually don't remember nor care what happened. That's why it's kind of smart for some programs to schedule big non-conference games in Week 1. A win gives them momentum and can solidify their spot in the rankings (and get them TV games later in the year). A loss can be forgotten by the time the rankings really matter.

Here's what we learned about the 2011 season:

1. ROBERT GRIFIN III (RG3) IS FOR REAL, SO IS BAYLOR

This is an important year for Baylor. The Big XII is on the verge of disintegration, which will leave Baylor's fate up in the air. If they can win some games, make some noise, and get to a decent bowl game, then they can have some decent options for which conference they want to go to next. I'm thinking they might replace TCU in the Mountain West.

Anyway, RG3 threw for 359 yards and 5 TDs, he also ran for 38 yards, and caught a pass for 15. Not bad at all.

2. NOTRE DAME IS OVERRATED

It's shocking that people would rank Notre Dame higher than they belong. Absolutely baffling. If the Irish can't handle USF in their own backyard, how will they handle trips to Ann Arbor and Stanford, as well as visits from Michigan State and USC?

3. LSU IS VERY VERY GOOD

The SEC West is wide open. LSU just joined Alabama and Arkansas as the leading contenders. They dominated Oregon in a semi-neutral location (Baton Rouge is 450 miles from Arlington, Eugene is 2,000 miles away). It's almost impossible to go undefeated in the SEC, so having a big win like that already in the bank can help give the Tigers a national title berth, even with 1 loss or perhaps 2.

4. OREGON CAN'T WIN BIG GAMES
The Ducks weren't terribly outplayed, but they made huge mistakes at the worst points of the game and at the worst spots on the field. 4 turnovers, 12 penalties, and another loss to an SEC defense. The Ducks fly high when they're much more talented than their opponent, but when they face equal talent, they have yet to demonstrate the character it takes to win big games.

5. ONLY ONE TEAM CAN WEAR SILLY UNIFORMS

Speaking of Oregon, only they can wear silly threads and look cool. That's because their uniform was ridiculous to begin with. Forest green with lime green writing? Why not modify that? But when teams with traditional colors and standard uniforms try to copy Oregon's creativity, it never works out. Georgia's uniforms were so ugly, that they even failed at being ugly. Maryland's looked like a nightmare, Boise State's were ugly AND boring. Every team will try to imitate the Ducks, but only Oregon is Oregon.

6. USC'S DEFENSE ACTUALLY DID SOMETHING POSITIVE
It's hard to be impressed by a 19-17 home win over lowly Minnesota, but USC did something in this game that they notoriously failed to do in 2010: their defense made a big play at the end, instead of choking down the stretch. In the Pete Carrol days, USC won with their defense. Their current incarnation might not be as athletic or as dominant, but at least they apparently no longer will cost the Trojans any games.

7. LIGHTNING SUCKS

Lightning seemed to effect about half of the games this weekend. It was a rare set of circumstances with several large weather systems covering the country. As the season progresses, and the weather cools down, lightning will stop being a factor.

8. IT'S GOING TO BE A LONG YEAR ON CHESTNUT HILL
The Eagles amassed 479 yards of offense, including 375 from QB Chase Rettig. But the BC quarterback couldn't get the ball into the endzone, and the eagles lost to a mediocre team that had a backup QB under center. Now BC travels to Orlando to play UCF, who won 11 games last year. A loss to UCF, and the Eagles can kiss bowl eligibility goodbye.

College Football Preview: Big XII*

The Big XII now has ten teams in it. Which is an X in Roman numerals. So maybe they should change their name to the Big "X" (pronounced 'ex'). Anyway, the Big XII no longer has a title game, so all the teams will be facing each other every year.

1. Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners' pass-happy offense would make any coach smile. QB Landry Jones finally started to mature last season, and he has weapons like All-American WR Ryan Broyles (131 catches, 1622 yards, 14 TDs) among others. The defense has some soft-spots, but it's good enough for the Big XII. The biggest challenge will be winning tough games on the road. OU's only 2 losses alst year came in Columbia, MO and College Station, TX. This year they have games in Tallahassee, FL and Stillwater, OK to deal with.

But this team is really, really good.

Key Games:
9/17 @ Florida State
9/24 vs. Missouri
11/5 vs. Texas A&M
12/3 @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: 11-1, Big XII winner, National title game contender

2. Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies bring back 18 starters from a 9 win team. They're strong at all offensive positions. For example, WR Jeff Fuller was the first Aggie in history with a 1,000+ yard season. They do need the defense to step up just a bit if they want to win the conference. Because Oklahoma's offense is simply that good. In a slugfest against OU, the Aggies come up just a bit short. So if that defense can gel, and they can slow down the Sooners a bit, they'll win their first conference title since 1998.

Key Games:
9/29 vs. Oklahoma State
10/1 vs. Arkansas (in Arlington, TX)
10/29 vs. Missouri
11/5 @ Oklahoma

Prediction: 11-1, 2nd in Big XII

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys might have the best offense in the Big XII. They were 3rd in the country last year. QB Brandon Weeden threw 4,277 yards and 34 TDs. WR Justin Blackmon caught 111 passes for 1,782 yards and 20 TDs. The Cowboys' Achilles heel is their defense. Their front 7 is young. Ultimately, their defense will let them down, and keep them out of a BCS bowl. I do think they'll beat Oklahoma, but they'll lose 2 conference games before then.

Key Games:
9/24 @ Texas A&M
10/22 @ Missouri
12/3 vs. Oklahoma

4. Missouri Tigers

The Tigers bring back 9 offensive starters from a unit that was already solid last year. Whoever they find to step up as quarterback will be blessed with riches. They'll be good receivers to throw to, good RBs to hand-off to, and a good line to protect him. The Tigers also bring back 7 defensive starters from a unit that was better than solid last year. They're a dark horse to win the Big XII, although they have some tough road games to endure.

Key Games:
9/9 @ Arizona State
9/24 @ Oklahoma
10/22 vs. Oklahoma State
10/29 @ Texas A&M

Prediction: 9-3

5. Baylor Bears

If you haven't been able to watch QB Robert Griffin, you've been missing out. Last year he threw for 3,501 yards and 22 TDs, and also ran for 625 yards and 8 more TDs. He should have a good 2011 as Baylor boasts some quality WRs. They do need to find some RBs to move the ball on the ground. And unfortunately, their defense will be their undoing. They'll be fun to watch, because games will be high scoring, back-to-back slugfests, but they'll wind up on the wrong end of those against the better teams in the conference.

The Big XII needs teams like Baylor to step up and become solid programs. And in case the Big XX disintegrates, Baylor needs to impress new potential conferences.

Prediction: 7-5

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Tech's up-tempo offense will struggle unless they figure out who is going to throw the ball and who'll catch it. They simply don't have the horses this year. And their defense continues to be a mess. They'll be using their 3rd coordinator in 3 years. They'll beat the weak teams of the conference with ease, but will then be casually brushed aside by the powerhouses.

Prediction: 7-5

7. Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns have turnover problems, and no clear QB. Their entire offense is a one big question mark. However, their defense is something to be proud of. They've got a core of good LBs, and they should keep Texas in games until the start of the 2nd quarter. What's ironic is that everyone gets to watch UT's rebuilding process on TV, thanks to the new Longhorn Network. That channel and the football program might have been better off if it started broadcasting in 2012, instead of 2011.

Prediction: 7-5

8. Kansas State Wildcats

K-State has no clue who their QB will be. They have no clue who their RB will me. And the RB mystery is worse because they relied heavily on the run last year. Even the offensive line is full of holes. The defense will likely improve thanks to its linebackers. But still, this is simply an untalented team without any sense of direction.

Prediction: 3-9

9. Iowa State Cyclones

There really isn't any talent in the skill positions, whatsoever. At least the defense will improve and mount some pressure on opposing QBs.

Prediction: 3-9

10. Kansas Jayhawks

If KU is going to be a contender again, it certainly won't be this year. They've got some talent in the pipeline, but it will take time to develop it. The defense lost its best pass rusher, and looks to be worse than it was last year. Which sucks because it was the 103rd scoring defense in the country.

Prediction: 2-10