Maryland and Rutgers to Big Ten

When the SEC went to 14 teams, the other BCS conferences watched to see if it would work. It did work, and now the Big Ten is expanding. They're reportedly going to add Maryland, as well as Rutgers, taking them from the ACC and Big East, respectively.

Both teams would add an East Coast presence for the Midwestern conference. And Rutgers would help the Big Ten infiltrate the New York media market. The Big Ten already has a juicy TV contract with ESPN, as well as their own network, so adding teams in general only increases the content they can provide.

I'm getting a little tired of this musical chairs in college sports. I want it over with.

In 10 years or so, it will all be sorted out. There will be three major conferences, with 16 or 18 teams each: The Big Ten, the Pac-16, and the SEC. The ACC and Big East will combine as a 12 team league just below the Big Three.

And in Webster's Dictionary, the Big Ten will pay for the meaning of the word "ten" to be changed to "any number between nine and twenty." "Ten" will become an approximating word like "several."

NBC Sports Aggressively Expanding

NBC Sports bid $250 million for the rights to broadcast the English Premier League for 3 years. They outbid Fox and ESPN, who currently hold the broadcasting rights for English soccer in America (source). It's the latest in a series of aggressive acquisitions by NBC Sports.

A few weeks ago they outbid Fox for the rights to broadcast Formula 1 racing in America. Formula 1 has niche appeal in the States, but is a global powerhouse. Forbes listed F1 driver Fernando Alonso as the 19th highest paid athlete in the world, with $32 million in earnings. His team, Ferrari, was ranked the 15th most valuable sports team in the world, between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears.

Both European soccer and Formula 1 have loyal but relatively small fanbases in the US. However there is significant room for growth. NBC is well situated to encourage and exploit that growth. Like ESPN, they have multiple channels at their disposal. They can reach a broad audience with their flagship NBC network, and a smaller but more concentrated viewership on NBC Sports. At night and on weekends, business-focused CNBC is essentially an idle channel, which NBC has already used to air Olympic and NHL coverage.

NBC's expansion isn't limited to small sports looking to grow, it includes established sports that already attract large audiences. The Big East recently decided to field open bids for the TV rights to its football games, instead of re-signing with ESPN. NBC Sports will compete with ESPN, as well as Fox, for those rights. NBC Sports currently hold the rights to Notre Dame football (this has been a good year for that contract), as well as the lower level Ivy League and CAA. They sub-license rights to Mountain West games from CBS Sports. If NBC snares the Big East, it would be a significant incursion into major college football.

NBC already possesses an arsenal of sports assets: Sunday Night Football, every third Super Bowl, the Olympics, horse racing's Triple Crown, and the NHL (which is unfortunately not taking advantage of NBC's growth campaign). They also broadcast second-tier sports such as Major League Soccer, the Golf Channel, IndyCar racing, and rugby.

And since 2011, when Comcast bought a majority share in NBC Universal, NBC Sports has controlled Comcast's network of regional sports channels. That includes 11 channels across the country focused on regional sports, including Comcast SportsNet Houston, which launched just a few weeks ago.

In the age of onDemand and DVRs, broadcasters and cable companies crave programming which people watch live, and therefore cannot skip commercials. Sports provide such content. NBC is determined to conquer as much territory in the lucrative sports landscape as it can. It might not challenge ESPN, at least not for a few years, but it does have an eye on CBS, and seems dead-set on hunting Fox.

Change for the BCS?

There may be change coming to college football's postseason. At the very least, it will be discussed by the 11 Division I-A conference heads along with Notre Dame's AD. There will be mafia style meetings like when the heads of crime families from across the country meet. There will be discussions on what's best for college football's future. There will be stubbornness, there might be compromise, and the Big East might get whacked.

The SEC wants a playoff. Ironic considering how much they've thrived in current BCS format.

The ACC also wants a playoff.

The Big Ten doesn't. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney is adamant that there be no playoff. He also believes that the world is flat and that the earth is the center of the Universe.

The Pac-12 is a wild card, and could be the best chance for compromise. They could be open to a playoff. So long as the Pac-12/Big Ten/Rose Bowl threesome remains intact. At least they're willing to talk.

The Big XII might want a playoff after seeing Oklahoma State lose 1 game and go to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Big East just wants to survive.

As a demonstration of how messy this discussion is, nobody involved even uses the word "playoff" because it's too inflammatory. "Plus-one" is the term to describe a 4 team playoff. Which makes no sense because there'd be 2 rounds, 3 games, and 4 teams.

Call me cynical, but I don't think there will be any major change from these meetings. Maybe the BCS will only sanction the national title game, instead of the title game and 4 BCS bowls. Maybe the notion of automatic qualification will go out the window, which might stop the musical chairs we've seen in college football.

But there are too many uncompromising people, too many various deal-breaking demands for everyone to be satisfied. And without consensus, there will be no big changes.

Until Jim Delaney dies or gets fired, there won't be any significantly positive change to college football's postseason.

Or maybe, if the BCS does separate itself from the bowls, it might grow as an independent entity. It might eventually build its own playoff system. Just like the NIT. Only with no NCAA tournament to compete with. Think of how popular the NIT would be if it were the only postseason tournament and featured all the best teams. ESPN would pay billions to broadcast a football version of that. And where the TV money goes, the teams will play.

That might make the Orange Bowl less profitable, but I really don't care.

Feasting on the Big East

It looks like West Virginia is headed to the Big XII. This will be the third defection of a Big East school to another conference this season, and the sixth this decade. That's not counting TCU's decision to move to the Big XII. With WVU, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh leaving, what will happen to the Big East as a football conference? Can it maintain its BCS standing, or will it become a "mid-major?" Or worse?

Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, UConn, Cincinnati. Five teams. That's all the Big East has for football. That won't work in the BCS. The Big XII is the next smallest BCS conference with at least 10 teams (11 if Missouri stays). Meanwhile, the ACC will have 14, the SEC 13, and the Pac-12 and BigTen have 12 each. So the Big East must add at least 3 teams (preferably more) to remain in the BCS.

But who will they be? In '05, they added Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF to their football league. Back then, there were plenty of solid C-USA programs to invite. Then UConn promoted its football team to I-A. These newcomers claimed 4 of the last 5 conference titles.

But who is out there for the Big East now? That well has gotten very dry. Houston is 7-0 this year, but was 5-7 last year. The Big East wants to add them. UCF was 11-3 last year, they're 4-3 this year. They are a Big East target. SMU is 5-2, but they've barely reached bowl eligibility in recent years and were 1-11 in 2008. The Big East is interested. These are the teams that could replace WVU, Syracuse, and Pitt. That's hardly worthy of a BCS berth.

Oh, the Big East has also been prodding Villanova to bring its football program up to I-A. The Wildcats are 1-7 this year (they beat Penn) down in I-AA.

There have been rumors that the Big East wants to add Air Force, Navy, and even Boise State as football-only members. Obviously Boise State would dramatically improve the conference. But why would the Broncos do it? They've reached the BCS without an automatic bid. They'd have to figure out what conferences their other sports would play in. And do they want to play their road games in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Ohio?

And who buys a ticket to climb aboard a sinking ship?

This ESPN.com article describes a convoluted plan to merge the Big East, C-USA, and Mountain West together as one super-league, with around 30 teams in 4 divisions, a playoff, and hopefully the winner receiving an automatic BCS berth. I think it's a bit too harebrained to even attempt.

The Big East isn't out of danger, either. Louisville is a rumored target of the Big XII. UConn and Rutgers would accept invitations to the ACC in a heartbeat. And if that happens, the Big East is essentially dead. It'd be USF and Cincinnati. Maybe Houston, Navy, UCF, and SMU would join them. But they would certainly not be a BCS conference anymore. They'd fall somewhere between the Mountain West and C-USA.

It's kind of sad. But the Big East has always been a bit too weird. Intentionally so. It was founded as a basketball conference, with the football side forming more than a decade after its original founding. The other conferences were about regional and historical teams joining together to compete in multiple sports. The Big East was about TV revenue from the start. They just picked the wrong sport to focus on.

They snubbed Penn State in 1985, and they've been different from every other conference since then. The idea of 8 football programs and 16 basketball programs sounds nice and neat, but it's messy. The Big East has always been two conferences with one label. How can you let Notre Dame benefit from basketball revenue when they don't share football revenue? How must schools like Georgetown and St. John's feel now that their basketball league is being threatened due to football? It's a crazy mess and always has been. Conferences are supposed to organize and regulate chaos, not cause it.

And a football conference centered in the northeast was doomed to fail anyway. You do have BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and WVU up here. Also up-and-coming programs like Rutgers and UConn. But we've seen that these teams are not going to decline the opportunity to be a part of big time college football, which is based in the South and the Midwest. That's where the big games are, that's where the money is.

Big East football is on life support. And the basketball is severely crippled. 19 Big East football titles have been awarded. And 15 of those are in the trophy cases of schools that have joined or will soon join other conferences. If UConn, Louisville, and Rutgers depart, say goodbye to 2 more football titles, not to mention UConn's basketball programs, along with the 20,000+ fans that Louisville averages at their basketball games. Don't forget about completely losing the New York market once Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers are all playing in the ACC.

As unfortunate as watching the slow death of a conference can be, the moves by West Virginia and TCU almost guarantee that the Big XII will survive. One conference dies, another lives on. The Big East has become an unwilling organ donor, sacrificing its parts to make other conferences healthy again.

The Big XII was in jeopardy a few months ago, but now look very strong. And they can add teams if they want to, like Louisville. They could add Houston to bolster their numbers (as opposed to the Big East, who would add Houston to compete for conference titles). The Big XII can offer Boise State a BCS bid along with geographic convenience. Same with BYU. And the Big XII's monopoly on Texas high school recruiting is an enticement no other conference can match.

The Big East will not be a BCS conference. It will be fortunate to remain in existence as a football league. The Big XII is safe, and might even grow to 12 members once again. Maybe more.