Change for the BCS?

There may be change coming to college football's postseason. At the very least, it will be discussed by the 11 Division I-A conference heads along with Notre Dame's AD. There will be mafia style meetings like when the heads of crime families from across the country meet. There will be discussions on what's best for college football's future. There will be stubbornness, there might be compromise, and the Big East might get whacked.

The SEC wants a playoff. Ironic considering how much they've thrived in current BCS format.

The ACC also wants a playoff.

The Big Ten doesn't. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney is adamant that there be no playoff. He also believes that the world is flat and that the earth is the center of the Universe.

The Pac-12 is a wild card, and could be the best chance for compromise. They could be open to a playoff. So long as the Pac-12/Big Ten/Rose Bowl threesome remains intact. At least they're willing to talk.

The Big XII might want a playoff after seeing Oklahoma State lose 1 game and go to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Big East just wants to survive.

As a demonstration of how messy this discussion is, nobody involved even uses the word "playoff" because it's too inflammatory. "Plus-one" is the term to describe a 4 team playoff. Which makes no sense because there'd be 2 rounds, 3 games, and 4 teams.

Call me cynical, but I don't think there will be any major change from these meetings. Maybe the BCS will only sanction the national title game, instead of the title game and 4 BCS bowls. Maybe the notion of automatic qualification will go out the window, which might stop the musical chairs we've seen in college football.

But there are too many uncompromising people, too many various deal-breaking demands for everyone to be satisfied. And without consensus, there will be no big changes.

Until Jim Delaney dies or gets fired, there won't be any significantly positive change to college football's postseason.

Or maybe, if the BCS does separate itself from the bowls, it might grow as an independent entity. It might eventually build its own playoff system. Just like the NIT. Only with no NCAA tournament to compete with. Think of how popular the NIT would be if it were the only postseason tournament and featured all the best teams. ESPN would pay billions to broadcast a football version of that. And where the TV money goes, the teams will play.

That might make the Orange Bowl less profitable, but I really don't care.

College Football Musical Chairs

The musical chairs of college football continue as Pitt and Syracuse will be joining the ACC. The move not only improves the football of the conference, it also dramatically improves the quality of the basketball. Syracuse, Duke, and UNC will all be directly competing against each other. The move also widens the ACC's footprint in the Northeast.

The ACC could stay at 14 teams, or it could easily expand to 16. UConn and Rutgers are very willing to join. Notre Dame has been rumored to be a target, and would obviously bring huge amounts of revenue and exposure to the conference. As a BC fan, I'd love if UConn and Notre Dame were to join Boston College in the ACC.

But Notre Dame's ample revenue streams are precisely why they won't join the ACC. They don't want to split their football money with anyone.

The ACC adding teams makes sense for several reasons. Obviously, adding quality football and basketball programs increases shared revenue for everyone. Also, the SEC is lurking, like a shark in deep waters and the ACC needs to protect itself.

Nobody knows how hungry the SEC will be to add teams. But if they do have an appetite, ACC programs like Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech might be on the menu. The ACC is actively defending itself in case that happens.

The Pac-12 has announced that it won't expand... today at least. They're happy with a 12 team conference and they'll all be making plenty of money.

This means that most of the Big XII is safe... today at least. Texas A&M will shuffle over to the SEC, and will likely do so uncontested now that the Big XII as a conference can still survive with 9 members. They may also add BYU or even West Virginia. The SEC has denied that it has already added Missouri.

The Big East is on life support. This isn't the first time. When BC, Miami, and Virginia Tech left, many thought that the Big East would die. So I don't want to start writing its obituary, but things seem worse this time around.

The Big East will be down to 7 teams with the departure of Pitt and Cuse (and the addition of TCU). If UConn and Rutgers defect to the ACC and West Virginia to the Big XII, the conference will either have to disband, or add low quality teams to survive. There simply aren't that many good non-BCS programs out there to add, though. Boise State, obviously. But who else? Houston? Central Florida?

I think the ACC will become the first 16 team "super-conference." They'll be an experiment for the other conferences to watch. If it works, then the SEC and others will follow.

We might end up with 4 BCS conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-16), each with 16 teams, 4 divisions, and 2 rounds of playoffs. Then maybe the 4 conference champs, plus 2 wild cards could be in a National Championship playoff. That'd be fine with me.

College Football Preview: Pac-12*

The Pac-10 grew to the Pac-12 by adding Utah from the Mountain West and Colorado from the Big XII. And even though these states are nowhere near the Pacific, the Pac-10/12 has always been a geographically dispersed conference. You've got teams from Washington and Oregon playing against teams from Arizona and southern California. So adding Utah and Colorado isn't too absurd.

Here's the alignment of the Pac-12, divided into two divisions:

North:
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Stanford
California

South:
USC
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Colorado

Teams will play 9 conference games (5 within the division, 4 from the other division). The Championship Game will be on December 2, and will be played at the home of the team with the best conference record.

1. Stanford Cardinal

Andrew Luck is the best player in the Pac-12, and perhaps the country. He'll have to play behind a rebuilt offensive line and a new group of WRs, but the Cardinal have some quality tight-ends, and they can run the ball. Last year, Stepfan Taylor ran for 1,137 yards and scored 15 times.

Their defense is good, and I think it's good enough to allow the offense to keep pace with Oregon when they meet in November (in Stanford, CA). Meanwhile, Oregon's defense will have trouble with Luck and the Cardinal's offense.

Stanford will beat Oregon head-to-head.

Key Games:
11/29 @ USC
11/12 vs. Oregon
11/26 vs. Notre Dame

Prediction: 12-1, Pac-12 North winner, Pac-12 title game winner, National Title contender

2. Oregon Ducks

It's hard not to be dazzled by UO's talent at the skill positions. RB LaMichael James ran for 1,731 yards and 21 TDs. QB Damon Thomas threw for 2,881 yards and 30 TDs. The Ducks averaged 47 points and over 530 yards of offense per game. There's little reason to think that their offense won't score at will.

However, their defense was only solid last year, and it's lost some key pieces. Only 5 starters return. While they'll be able to roll over most teams on their schedule, this one slight weakness will keep them out of the Pac-12 title game, and out of the BCS title game.

Key Games:
9/3 vs. LSU (in Arlington, TX)
11/12 @ Stanford
11/19 vs. USC

Prediction: 11-1, 2nd in Pac-12 North, National Title contender

3. USC Trojans

QB Matt Barkley (26 TDs as a sophomore) and WR Robert Woods (65 catches, 792 yards as a freshman) are rising stars in Hollywood's football program. However, unlike the Pete Carroll days, defense is no longer a strength at USC. The Trojans allowed 400.1 yards per game last year, and there doesn't seem to be many signs of improvement on that side of the ball. Thankfully for USC, they're in the South Division.

Key Games:
10/22 @ Notre Dame
10/29 vs. Stanford
11/19 @ Oregon

Prediction: 9-4, Pac-12 South winner, loss in Pac-12 title game

4. Utah Utes

It will be a challenge for Utah to rebuild after losing so much talent, even though the Utes won 10 games last year. Hiring Norm Chow as offensive coordinator can't hurt. And QB Jordan Wynn shows some promise. But they still need to replace their RBs. They also struggled against good defenses, which they'll see plenty of in the Pac-12.

Prediction: 8-4

5. Arizona State Sun Devils

ASU is good on the ground, bad in the air, on both sides of the ball. They have several good RBs, and 4 offensive linemen return. But the QB situation is still a mystery. On the other side of the ball, a good D-line and all 3 LBs returning bodes well for run stopping. The Sun Devils must also find a way to slow down opposing passing games. They were 101st against the pass last year.

Prediction: 8-4

6. Arizona Wildcats

If Arizona wants to reach a school record 4th straight bowl, they'll need QB Nick Foles to continue to excel. He threw over 3,000 yards and 20 TDs last year. The offensive line protecting him has 1 combined start among them, and the rushing game was awful last year. The defense was solid last year and should be just as good in 2011. Despite a tough start (games against Stanford, Oregon, and USC), the Wildcats should go bowling.

Prediction: 7-5

7. Washington Huskies

It's impossible to replace the likes of Jake Locker, but at least Washington has a 1,000 yard back and a 1,000 yard receiver. Their defense can rush the passer, and their DBs also know what they're doing. With the QB talent Washington will face in the Pac-12, those are two very nice defensive assets.

Prediction: 7-5

8. California Golden Bears

The Bears were 73rd in scoring offense last year, have no clear QB, no experienced RB, and little depth at WR. However, they possess one of the best defenses in the Pac-12. It won't be good enough to carry their feeble offense, but it might allow them to win one huge upset game.

Prediction: 6-6

9. Oregon State Beavers

QB Ryan Katz along with some good receivers should improve the passing game. That will be a necessity because their running game will struggle with little talent in the backfield and a suspect line. The defense is a big mess. Losing Jacquizz Rodgers and Stephen Paea has put the Beavers on life support until more talent can arrive.

Prediction: 5-7

10. UCLA Bruins

The Bruins had a shamefully bad passing offense, 116th in the country. They were also -11 in turnovers. Thankfully for them, the defense is likely to improve. Rick Neuheisel replaced his coordinators, and seems to know that he's the next to be replaced if things don't turn around in Westwood.

Prediction: 4-8

11. Colorado Buffaloes

I know why CU wanted to join the Pac-12, to get some exposure in big West Coast markets and to return to the national stage (instead of being dominated by Texas, then ignored when they play Missouri). But I don't know why the Pac-12 wanted Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost 18 straight outside of their state. They can run the ball well, which won't do them any good because the defense is so bad (especially against the pass) that they'll just be running down the clock for their opponents. Their schedule is also quite dumb. 13 games in 13 weeks, including road trips to Honolulu and Columbus, OH.

Prediction: 3-10

12. Washington State Cougars

Both the offensive and defensive lines are pushovers, which is too bad because the Cougars have a good QB, a couple of WRs, and some decent RBs. It won't matter though because they'll lose the game in the trenches.

Prediction: 1-11