RED SOX 2008 PREVIEW: RIGHT FIELD

One thing has always perplexed me about JD Drew. His real name is David Jonathan Drew. So why is he JD Drew? Does he simply omit the J in his full initials of DJD? If so, wouldn't that make his unpacked new name Jonathan Drew Drew? This question bugs me. It's like ITT Tech. What the hell do the two T's stand for?

JD Drew's name isn't the only thing that worries me. But I'm not as worried as some, or even most Red Sox fans.

JD came to town last year with two major expectations:

#1: He'd get injured and miss 30 to 60 games

#2: He'd produce as a solid #5 hitter in the games that he did play

Neither one of these expectations came true. He played in 140 games, missing some time with minor problems. But he didn't produce that much.

His average wasn't horrible, .270 for a career .284 hitter isn't the end of the world. His OBP also wasn't horrible at .373. But these not horrible, not great numbers combined with a poor .423 slugging percentage. That's a significant drop from JD's career slugging of .500.

Let's try to figure out what JD's strong points were, and what were his biggest weaknesses.

JD's biggest weakness was against left-handed pitching. This is not a new thing for him. Since 2005, there's a .060 decrease in his average when facing lefties. His slugging also plummets .169 points.

In 2007, JD hit .224 against lefties, with an OBP of .285, and a slugging percentage of .353. Against righties, he hit .286, with a .400 OBP, and a .446 slugging percentage. But he still wasn't much of a power hitter.

JD didn't struggle at Fenway Park, either. He actually hit much better at home (.284 BA, .392 OBP) than on the road (.259 BA, .356 OBP). So adjusting to a new ballpark wasn't too much of a problem.

Drew's biggest problem was a lack of power. Every conceivable measurement of a hitter's power indicates this. And all us Sox fans who watched him during the year already knew it.

In his career, Drew averages hitting a homerun once every 21 at-bats. In '07, it was once every 42.4 ABs. His IsoP (Isolated Power, one of those stats Bill James and his cadre of baseball nerds came up with to show how much power a hitter had) was down from his career average, as was his Secondary average (again, Bill James).

What's strange was that his other numbers were within his career norms. He saw the same amount of pitches per at-bat. Walked and struck out at his normal rate. Hit groundballs to flyballs just as often as usual. Everything is the same, except the power numbers.

Perhaps it was adjusting to new pitchers in the AL. Against NL teams, Drew hit very well. In 58 Interleague at-bats, he hit .329 with a .391 OBP and a .603 slugging percentage. Granted, this was almost entirely against the NL West, which was particularly weak at the time. Nevertheless, that's pretty good for a 58 at-bat stretch.

Against AL opponents, Drew's average dips slightly to .262, and his slugging falls to .397. And oddly enough, against an NL team in the World Series, Drew hit .333 with a pair of doubles and two RBI.

So will JD Drew pull a Josh Beckett and explode in his second year? I think he will. At least, I think he'll improve. Look for Drew to hit .280, with 23 HRs, and 85 to 95 RBI.

One problem, though, is the lefties. And it's a problem which lacks much of a solution. If Crisp is still around, Ellsbury could move over to right, and Crisp could play center. But then you're replacing a guy who can't hit lefties with a guy who just can't hit. You'd also be keeping Ellsbury in against the lefty. Then again, Crisp hits lefties better than righties. Maybe it's not such a bad idea.

Whatever Drew does in 2008, the Sox are depending on him more than last year. Last year Mike Lowell came out of nowhere, and Ortiz played through his knee problems. This year, Lowell is another year older, God knows how Ortiz's knees will be, Manny's been falling off slowly the past few seasons, and there's a rookie in center field.

The Sox could really use Drew as a contributing member of the lineup. If he produces the way he's capable of, the top 6 in the order starts looking very good. And as a lefty Drew slots in behind Ramirez and in front of Lowell (both righties) very nicely.



Sources:
Baseball-Reference.com
ESPN.com

RED SOX ADD MORE SEATS YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO SIT IN

The Coca-Cola corner will sit atop the roof overhanging the left field grandstand. It adds 412 new seats to the ballpark, as well as room for 100 standing room patrons. The Red Sox say tickets will be $75 for seats in the section, and $25 for standing room.

This section replaces a makeshift "luxury" box which had been an auxiliary press box for the 1999 All-Star Game. The Sox claim that they are trying to increase the number of seats in the ballpark that cost $100+.

If the $75 seats and $25 SRO tickets are sold for every home game, about $2.7 million in new revenues will come to the Red Sox, not including additional concessions, and the naming rights fee Coca-Cola paid.

This is yet another desperate attempt to cram more seats into an already overcrowded facility. And I'm sorry, but $75 a seat isn't exactly cheap. I love how this new ownership group has turned the team into a winner. But Fenway Park is a run-down, small, shanty. Moreover, it doesn't maximize the potential revenue the team could be taking in. More revenue=more spending money=better players. And with the Yankees moving into a new baseball cathedral, with luxury boxes, and 50,000 seats; the Red Sox might be left in their dust. And who wants that?

Source:
Boston.com

PATRIOTS OFF-SEASON THOUGHTS: TIGHT END

Ben Watson tied with Jabar Gaffney for the 5th most receptions on the team last year. Combined with Kyle Brady, and David Thomas; Patriots tight ends totaled 46 receptions for 468 yards. That's a pretty good yards per reception average (10.2) for tight ends.

With Watson andThomas; the Pats are pretty much set at tight end. It isn't the best group of TEs. There aren't any Tony Gonzalezes or Dallas Clarks in this bunch. But they do their job. They're good blockers for the run and on pass protection. And when the receivers are covered, they are solid outlets.

It would be nice to see Watson get more consistent touches. He got about half of his receptions (17 of 36) in four games (Week 2 vs. SD, Week 5 vs. CLE, Week 14 vs. PIT, Week 17 vs. NYG). In the other 8 games he played in, he averaged 2.4 receptions, which isn't keeping him very much involved in the offense.

In 2006, Watson was a big part of the Patriots offense. He was second on the team in receptions (49) and receiving yards (643). Obviously with the addition of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker; these numbers were bound to drop.

When the Patriots ran into a formidable, and nearly unstoppable pass rush, they were lost. After relying on deep passes and complex combination routes all year, they seemed to have no idea how to play old school (4 years ago) Patriots field position football. This was where the tight end was needed, both to pass protect and to to punish defensive ends that were running straight upfield. Quick outs, tight end screens, quick passes on the flat. These types of plays were needed. With no running game working, dumping off to big tight ends like Watson (255 lbs.) and Brady (280 lbs) would have served as a good replacement.

Ben Watson had 0 receptions in the Super Bowl. Kyle Brady had 1 for 3 yards.

I don't think the Patriots need to go out and acquire help at tight end. But they should consider getting the tight end more involved in the offense.

One thing to look forward to in 2008 will be David Thomas. We haven't seen much of him, but when we have, it's been fun to watch. Against Jacksonville in '06, he filled in for Watson and had 5 catches for 83 yards and a TD. He re-aggravated a foot injury and was unable to play for most of the 2007 season. If healthy, he could become a serious force in an already deadly offense.



(Re)sources:
ESPN.com
Pro-Football-Reference.com

PATRIOTS RETAIN GAFFNEY FOR ANOTHER YEAR

The day after re-signing Randy Moss, the Patriots have made a deal with Jabar Gaffney that will keep him in a Patriot uniform for another year. The deal is said to be worth $2M.

In 2007, Gaffney was tied for 5th on the team in receptions with 36. But he got most of those in the 2nd half of the season. Through the first 8 games, he had 8 receptions for 59 yards. In the second 8 games of the year, he had 24 receptions for 393 yards. Four of his five TD receptions came in the 2nd half of the season. He started off the year as the #4 WR, but ended at #3 behind Welker and Moss.

So this is what the wide receiver depth chart now looks like for 2008:

1: Randy Moss
2: Wes Welker
3: Jabar Gaffney
4: Kelley Washington
5: Chad Jackson

Not too shabby

Sources:
Reiss's Pieces
Pro-Football-Reference.com

RED SOX 2008 PREVIEW: CENTER FIELD

At the moment Coco Crisp is listed as the Red Sox starting center-fielder. For a variety of reasons, I feel as though this will not be true once the season starts.

Center field is the ONLY position which will see a different starter in 2008 than in 2007. Jacoby Ellsbury shot through the minors last year, hitting .452 in 73 ABs at AA Portland, then hitting .298 in 363 ABs at AAA Pawtucket. He then hit .353 in 116 ABs with the big club.

Oh yeah, he was also a candidate for World Series MVP, going 7 for 16 (.438) with 4 doubles and 3 RBI. It would have been amazing had he won it, considering he still hadn't had an official rookie season.



Ellsbury became a pop star overnight in Red Sox Nation, but we must remember that he's only 24 and only has a mere half season of AAA experience. It's hard not to expect big things from him because he's already given the Sox big things. But he's still a rookie.

Ellsbury will start the season as the leadoff hitter. His speed (50 for 57 in SB attempts at all levels last year) will help Youkilis, Ortiz, and Ramirez knock in more runs. He's a smart baserunner too, and doesn't run into many outs.

Ellsbury is my pre-season pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I think he'll hit around .310, steal 30 bases, and score 100 runs. But when it comes to rookies, one never does know. And despite Ellsbury's performance in 2007, he's still a rookie.

Coco Crisp is on the trading block, but there haven't been any takers...yet. It's safe to say Crisp has been a disappointment since coming to Boston. His defense has amazed, but his offense has offended.

Crisp went from being a .300 hitter in Cleveland, to a .260s hitter in Boston. He's had some injury problems, but last year there were no excuses. Crisp hit .268 (league average: .278), had an OBP of .330 (league average: .346), and slugged .382 (league average .435).

He was a good baserunner (7 triples, 28 of 34 in SB attempts), and a great defensive center-fielder (.998 fielding percentage, 7 outfield assists, above average range). But he went from being a potential Lenny Dykstra to a reincarnation of Darren Lewis. Great glove, speedy legs, mediocre bat.

If the Sox can't get a good deal for Coco, he'd still be a good asset to the team. His defensive abilities and his speed make for a great bench player. And having someone with experience behind Ellsbury would provide insurance in case Jacoby needs more time in the minors.

If Coco departs, the center field depth chart gets a bit more complicated. Brandon Moss will be in AAA, and can fill-in if Jacoby gets hurt or struggles. But he would also be a rookie. Bobby Kielty would be a veteran fill-in, although Drew would probably move to center with Kielty playing right.

Sources:
ESPN.com
Baseball-Reference.com
The Baseball Cube

MOSS IS STAYING

The Patriots and Randy Moss announced today that they agreed to a deal worth $27M over 3 years. This keeps Randy in a New England uniform for 2008, and keeps a key piece of last year's offensive juggernaut.

The past few days have been difficult for Pats fans. Guys like Rosevelt Colvin, Asante Samuel, Donte Stallworth and Randall Gay all leaving. Only special teamers like Lonie Paxton and Kelley Washington were free agents who were retained.

And then came the rumors. Hopeful media personalities from all over the country concocted stories of Randy Moss being interested in going anywhere and everywhere out of New England. One rumor had him going to Green Bay. Another had him going to Philly. Another had him reuniting with Daunte Culpeper.

Someone left a comment on my article about Gay leaving and observed that I wasn't at all upset by any of the losses the Patriots have endured this off-season. And days like today are why. By "losing" Rosevelt Colvin, Donte Stallworth, and Asante Samuel, the Pats actually gain something. Had these guys been retained and overpaid for, the Pats would have less cap room. Which means other positions would suffer. In effect, hanging onto guys like Samuel and Gay for an inflated price would be the true loss.

The $9M per season Moss will receive is somewhat of a bargain. It isn't nearly as cheap as he got in 2007. Nor is it lower than he would have gotten if the Patriots had placed the franchise tag on him. However, wrapping him up for 3 years is extremely good news.

In fact, some sources speculate that the Eagles offered Moss more money. Not surprisingly, Randy decided to take less money to play on a better team, with a better quarterback, for a better coach, and in a nicer city.

Sources:
Boston.com
Philadelphia Daily News

SAINTS GET GAY

LSU alum and Baton Rouge native Randall Gay is going home to Louisiana. Although, he didn't give the Saints much of a hometown discount. Depending on playing time, Gay will get upwards of $17M over the next four years, a tidy sum for a player who is essentially a nickel CB.

Once again, another team has driven up the price on a Patriot player. Once again the Patriots were not willing to overpay for such a player. Once again, the Patriots will have to find a replacement.

Source:
Boston.com

RED SOX FALL 8-2 TO TWINS

With a win, the Red Sox would have clinched their 6th Mayor's Cup, but the Twins had other plans. Tim Wakefield got the start for the Sox and looked pretty good. He allowed just one hit in his two innings of work.

Mike Lowell gave the Sox a 1-0 lead with a solo homerun to leadoff the 2nd. But then Clay Bucholz came in. Bucholz allowed 4 runs in the 3rd off 5 hits and a walk. But he didn't look as bad as his line suggests. There were several hits that blooped into gaps, and a few that could've been caught by Red Sox fielders (Manny).



Bucholz's second inning of work was a quick 1-2-3. Hideki Okajima worked into and out of a jam in his inning. Javier Lopez, and Manny Delcarmen had scoreless innings. Then Craig Hansen came in and looked awful. He gave up 4 off 2 hits and 3 walks.

The Red Sox offense didn't look that good. Lowell's homer, and an RBI single by Pedroia produced the only 2 runs of the day. Crisp, Manny, Drew, and Youkilis were all held hitless. Although Drew did have a nice outfield assist at home plate.



The next televised Red Sox spring training game will be Thursday afternoon on ESPN. The Red Sox will host the Dodgers.

Source:
BostonRedSox.com

Photo Credits:
Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images
AP Photo/Brita Meng Outzen