Monday, March 24, 2014

Bruins Win 12 in a Row Thanks to Number 12, Jarome Iginla

In the middle of the biggest basketball weekend of the year, your Boston Bruins were the 5th story on SportsCenter Sunday morning. That's because they won their 12th straight Saturday night, coming from behind in the 3rd period to beat the Phoenix Coyotes 4-2.

The streak is the longest in franchise history since the 1970-71 season when the B's won 13 in a row. The franchise record is 14 straight from the 1929-30 season. Also over the weekend, the Bruins clinched a playoff berth. That's 7 consecutive years of playoff hockey in Boston.

I came up with a theory to explain this winning streak. Maybe when the Bruins didn't do much at the NHL trade deadline, the team felt that management had confidence in them. Maybe this motivated the players. Maybe it lit a spark, sparked a fire, fired them up. Name your cliche.

That'd be a nice story, but I think this streak is a result of mathematics, not psychology.

K + I + L = 17

That's Krejci (3 goals) plus Iginla (11 goals) plus Lucic (3 goals) equals 17 goals. That's how many the top line have scored in the past 12 games. Iginla scored twice in the win over Phoenix.

I'm going to start calling this line The Killers, because their initials are KIL. Think it will catch on?

The story of the streak has been offense: the first line has scored 17 goals, Patrice Bergeron has scored 5, Carl Soderberg 4, Gregory Campbell 3, Zdeno Chara and Dougie Hamilton each have 6 assists in the streak. The offense is coming from all 4 lines and from all the defensemen, including the newly acquired Andrej Meszaros, who has a goal and 3 assists in his 7 games with the Bruins.

And while the team's been scoring, they haven't allowed their opponents to come from behind. Mainly due to this next equation:

31/34 = 91.2%

The Bruins have killed 31 of 34 penalties during this stretch. Earlier this month the Bruins killed 5 penalties against Phoenix and won 2-1. The B's killed 4 against Florida on March 9th and won 5-2. They haven't allowed their opponents to get back into games with power play goals.

Hopefully the B's have finally figured out how to kill penalties without Dennis Seidenberg.

The Bruins hope to extend their streak with a win over Montreal tonight at the Garden.

The Bruins currently stand with 103 points, tied with the St. Louis Blues for the best record in the NHL. They're also 6 points ahead of Pittsburgh in the East and 17 ahead of Tampa Bay in the Atlantic. That's a 17 point lead with 11 games left. The Bruins are 6 points away from clinching the division and could claim that title as early as Thursday.

Photo Credit:
Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Thursday, March 20, 2014

BC Basketball Needed a Change in Direction

A week ago, Boston College's basketball season ended when they lost 73-70 in overtime TO Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament. This week, head coach Steve Donahue's tenure at BC also ended. It was a much needed change, for both the team and for Donahue.

BC lost 24 games this season. 9 of those were by 4 points or fewer. The Eagles were 3-9 in those close games (one of those victories was over Florida Atlantic). They had the ability to keep up with good teams, even beat Syracuse on the road, but when games were determined in the last 2-4 minutes their performance level typically dropped. They didn't rise to the occasion, they did the opposite.

As a team they were too tightly strung. They played too much with their brains and not their bodies. They lacked aggression, thinking too much instead of acting. Basketball is a game of decisiveness, and they played with indecision.

In the recruiting department they resembled an Ivy League team more than ACC team. They had quality players like Olivier Hanlan, and a handful of decent role players, but no strong athletes who could carry a team either defensively or offensively. And guys like Hanlan played soft and weak, especially when games were on the line.

And before BC people use the old "Academic Standards" refrain, those standards might make it tough to win 24 games, they don't make it so you lose 24.

Steve Donahue is a good coach. He's just not the right coach. In hindsight, BC took a guy from a small pond (Cornell and the Ivy League) and transplanted him to a shark infested ocean. Donahue got his Cornell Big Red to the Sweet 16, which is impressive, but winning two NCAA games pales in comparison to playing 18 ACC games a season.

Donahue's Eagles could win big games every once and awhile, but struggled with consistency. They could be great for 40 minutes, but failed to be good for 400 minutes. This year they were 240th in the country in points per game, 269th in points allowed, 326th in rebounds, 154th in shooting percentage.

Hopefully Donahue finds a job that fits better. Let's also not forget that he inherited a BC team that was struggling. So he was tasked with turning a team around in one of the toughest leagues in the country.

Harvard's Tommy Amaker is reportedly the leading candidate for the opening at BC. I like Amaker, but I'm not sure it's smart to once again hire an Ivy League success story. Amaker has turned Harvard into a relative powerhouse in one of the worst leagues in the country. Big fish, small pond.

Then again, he's coached in power conferences before, in both the Big East (Seton Hall) and Big Ten (Michigan). He also played in the ACC at Duke.

Then again, he never brought Michigan to the NCAA tournament and was criticized for teams that underperformed in pressure situations. That kind of sounds like what BC's been experiencing under Donahue.

THEN AGAIN, Amaker helped rebuild a Michigan program that was recovering from a scandal. Under Amaker, Michigan had significant success in the NIT. As a program, BC is in recovery mode. They shouldn't be looking for someone who can bring them to the promised land, they need someone who will turn the program around and get things going in the right direction.

But if you're Amaker, do you want to coach at BC? If you do well and bring the program back to NCAA contention, but can't get any further than the opening rounds, they'll replace you. If you don't turn things around, they'll replace you.

It is a challenge. And Amaker seems to thrive on challenges. I'm writing this 10 minutes before his Harvard Crimson tip-off in the NCAA Tournament. If they do well, he might have better job offers than BC.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Jarome Finneginla Leads Bruins to St. Patrick's Day Win

The Bruins won their 9th straight Monday night against the Minnesota Wild in convincing fashion. Jarome Iginla scored twice. Loui Eriksson scored as well, and Reilly Smith scored his 19th of the season. Zdeno Chara had two assists.

Iginla has scored 25 goals this season, and as I think about his potential contributions in the upcoming playoffs, I can't help but imagine how much he might have helped the Bruins last year. When the B's faced the Blackhawks in the Stanley Cup Finals, they had run out of healthy and performing forwards. Iginla might have been the difference, or at least helped the Bruins force the series to 7 games. At least he's part of the team now.

Tuukka Rask made a couple of big saves in this game, much to Mikko Koivu's chagrin. Rask stopped 33 of 34. As part of this 9 game winning streak he's won 6 times, only allowing 9 goals (1.5 per game) with a save percentage of .947 (161 saves on 170 shots).

But the big story of the streak has been the offense. The B's have scored 36 goals in the last 9 games. If you've forgotten your multiplication tables, that's 4 goals per game.

One reason for the offensive success is the IKEA line of Loui Eriksson and Carl Soderberg. The two Swedish Fish combined for a goal Monday night and have combined for 5 goals in this streak. Not bad for the third line.

The top line has been leading the way. The aforementioned Iginla has scored 8 goals in this streak, including 5 in the last 3 games. David Krejci and Milan Lucic have each scored 3.

So 14 goals from the top line + 5 goals from the Swedish connection + contributions from everyone else + Rask playing well in net = 9 straight wins.

The Bruins now stand with 97 points, first in the Eastern Conference (5 points ahead of Pittsburgh), tied for the second best record in the NHL. With 14 games remaining, the Bruins have a 16 point lead over Tampa Bay and Montreal in the divisional race. The B's are 13 points away from clinching the division and home ice in the first two rounds. They're 7 points away from clinching a playoff spot.

They now embark on a weird road trip, playing in New Jersey Tuesday night, then Colorado on Friday and Phoenix on Saturday. The Bruins end the season with 15 games in 23 days, so clinching stuff will give them a chance to rest key players (Iginla, Chara, Rask) for the playoffs.

Photo Credit:
Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Monday, March 17, 2014

Brandon LaFell Is the Opposite of Danny Amendola

The Patriots signed Brandon LaFell, formerly of the Carolina Panthers, to a three year deal.

What I like about this signing is that LaFell's strengths are the same as Danny Amendola's weaknesses.

LaFell is big. He's 6' 2" and 208 pounds, which is 3 inches taller and 25 pounds larger than Amendola.

Lafell stays healthy. He's played in 14+ games every year he's been in the League. He's played 60 games in 4 years and started all 16 last year.

Danny Amendola is a player who comes with lots of "ifs." IF he can stay on the field, IF he can avoid injury. The only if with LaFell is "If he continues to be what he's been."

He's caught 36+ passes in all 4 of his seasons. He's caught for 600+ yards in each of his last 3 seasons. In the last 2 years he's averaged about 3 catchers per game for 43.5 yards.

His numbers are far from eye-popping. He's clearly not a game-changer at wide receiver. If this were baseball, I'd say he's like a #3 or #4 starter in the rotation. An innings eater. Or maybe a middle reliever. You don't win because of him but he does help you win.

And that's where he currently fits in on the Patriots roster. Let's just assume you can't rely on Amendola to stay healthy. The WR depth chart goes: Julian Edelman, LaFell, then Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. With LaFell in there, there's a less severe drop off from Edelman to Thompkins and Dobson. That means less pressure on those sophomore receivers, and someone besides Edelman that Brady can target.

He's an innings eater. He's a receptions eater.

I still think the Patriots could use more help at wide receiver, but the market is drying up. It's getting close to last call and the Patriots seem to be considering going home with psychopath Kenny Britt. I typically don't mind low-risk/high-reward signings like Britt would be, however I think adding uncertainty to an already very uncertain position might not be very sound. Not without finding another pass catcher with more reliability on and off the field. If you had a group of running backs with fumbling issues, would you address that issue by signing another one with butterfingers?

Then again, Britt is 6' 3." And he might be Building 19 cheap.*

*For those who don't know what Building 19 is, it used to be a really cheap store. Cheaper than Wal-Mart cheap

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Bruins Overpower Canadiens

When the Montreal Canadiens traded for Thomas Vanek, it made me worry. The Habs have been a tough match-up for the Bruins for years, then they added someone who has specialized in scoring against the B's. However, last night Vanek was not a factor on offense at all. In fact, a defensive lapse of his allowed Zdeno Chara to score early in the 3rd period, which made it a 4-0 game and essentially cemented the Bruins' win.

Tuukka Rask was named the first star, and he deserved it. The Bruins didn't have a great 1st period, but Rask did. And Rask was also the best penalty killer. He was the biggest reason the B's killed all 3 Montreal power plays. He also made a huge pad save against a Max Pacioretty breakaway in the 1st. He kept the game 0-0 when the Bruins weren't playing their best.

This was also a good time to play Montreal. Carey Price is still out. And their power play is mired in a deep slump. The Habs entered this game 1 for their last 18 power plays.

The Bruins did their job. I mentioned Rask. He carried the Bruins through the 1st. Then Carl Soderberg scored early in the 2nd, almost as a response to how well Rask played in the 1st. Soderberg is the type of guy who could score a goal or two in a playoff series, and those goals will be the difference between winning and losing the whole series. He's not always changing the game, but he has the capacity to change it.

Milan Lucic scored his 20th goal of the season in this game. Like many of his goals, it was the end result of his entire line playing well. And that's not a criticism of him. It's a compliment. He makes his linemates better just like they make him better. This has been the most consistent regular season of his career. That's a credit to him and to his line.

The Bruins are playing great. That's six straight wins. They've gone past 90 points. They host the Phoenix Coyotes tonight. That's another team that's hot. The Coyotes have won 4 of their last 5. And they've been waiting in Boston to play the Bruins. This is a great test tonight.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Paul Chiasson

Patriots Make Everyone Happy and Sign Darrelle Revis

The Patriots and cornerback Darrelle Revis have reportedly agreed to a one-year deal worth $12 million.

To anyone who said that the Patriots should have franchised Aqib Talib and paid him $11.8 million for one year, do you wish to recant and repent? I'll give you a few moments...

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To anyone who completely freaked out yesterday and acted like they had PMS because Talib got signed by the Broncos, I'm going to give you a few moments to contemplate how foolish you were to get so overly emotional on March 12th...


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Let's also not forget the so-called "experts" who confidently declared that Revis would demand top dollar, probably costing $16 million a season. And that once Revis saw what Talib got, Revis would want a similarly large and lengthy deal. What actually happened was that Revis took a pay-cut to play for the Patriots. And the deal lasts one season. Let's think about how smart these pundits, who spend 365 days a year trying to figure out the Patriots, actually were...

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And now let's move on. Idiots.

I can't say I love the $12 million cap hit, however it's just for a year. And in terms of guaranteed money, the Patriots are paying less than half of what the Denver Broncos paid Talib. So the Pats get a better player, who is less injury prone, for less guaranteed money. They pay more per year, but both Revis and the Patriots have flexibility for 2015. Flexibility is everything.

I'm thrilled with this acquisition. They got Revis at less than what anyone expected. They've actually improved at a position despite losing their most important defensive player at the same position. How often does that happen? In any sport. Imagine a hockey team losing their starting goalie, or a baseball team their Ace pitcher, only to bring in someone else and improve at the position in less than 24 hours.

There's still more work to be done. The Patriots NEED wide receivers. Right now, their #1 WR under contract is Danny Amendola, and that's alarming. As much as I like signing Revis, by signing him it's now more difficult to sign the absolute best available receivers. So, foolish overly emotional Patriots fans, please remember this. Keep your expectations grounded when it comes to big name receivers.

Apart from receivers, the Pats also still need a second tight-end who can occasionally catch, a pass rusher or two, maybe another CB for depth.

Sun Tzu said in The Art of War that "Every battle is won before it's fought." Similarly, Super Bowls are won before they are played: in the off-season, in training camp, in practice. This acquisition helps the Patriots win the battles they'll find themselves fighting in the autumn and winter. At the same time, the off-season isn't over yet, and it's just one phase of the year.

I'm excited to see Revis in a Patriots uniform. But Super Bowls are played in February, not March. The 2014 NFL Year has only just begun. There are many more days left.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Broncos Overpay for Aqib Talib

It hurts losing one of your best players in free agency. It really hurts losing him to your toughest conference opponent. It's a sudden, shocking kind of hurt. Losing Talib is like having your hand smashed with a hammer. Hurts like hell but you'll heal. Bad contracts are like arthritis. Incessant, nagging pain that will last for years.

The Broncos signed Aqib Talib to a 6-year deal worth $57 million, $26 million of which is guaranteed.

That's $9.5 million a year for Talib. Which is too much.

That's a 6-year deal for Talib. Which is too long.

That's $26 million guaranteed to Talib. Which is too much.

It's just a bad deal any way you slice it.

I'm not happy to see him go, especially to Denver, but I wouldn't be happy making that deal. It's too much of an investment and a commitment, especially considering Talib's health issues and the potential for on-field and off-field issues.

And no, losing Talib doesn't mean the Patriots MUST sign or trade for Darrelle Revis. While they do need cornerbacks, you don't need an amazing CB to win. And having an amazing CB doesn't automatically make you a winner. The Patriots do need to improve the position. Even if Talib had stayed in Foxborough, I thought the Patriots needed more experience and depth at the position.

When the Pats have lost Talib to injury, their lack of depth has been exposed. Overpaying Talib doesn't help add depth.

The Patriots also need a better pass rush. They need to reduce the time their defensive backs have to cover opposing receivers. Spending too much on Talib would have meant having less to spend on this pass rush. Or wherever it is the Patriots spend the money they would have spent on Talib.

The Patriots also need receivers who can hold their own in battles against guys like Talib and other good DBs. The Pats need strong, physical receivers. Steve Smith comes to mind. What a diabolical pick-up that would be to put Steve Smith out there against Talib when the Patriots and Broncos play.

Overpaying Talib would have made it more difficult for the Patriots to improve elsewhere.

I am anticipating the pained whines and moans of Patriots fans this morning. "Couldn't the Patriots have made the leap from 8 million to 9.5? How much of a difference is 1.5?" "Another big name out the door." "When will this team spend on their free agents?" "I'm sick of it." "In Bill we trust."

I'm also anticipating the angry and emotional demands of the fanbase. "Get Revis. NOW!"

Yesterday's optimism as NFL free agency began and the sun shone down on New England, has been shattered by cruel reality. It's sunny and mild in Denver today. It's rainy and cold here. Let Denver enjoy this brief sunshine. This contract will burn them.

Photo Credit:
USA Today Sports

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Happy New Year, Patriots Fans!

For all intents and purposes, this is New Year's Day in the NFL. Actually, it's New Year's Eve until 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. And much like the real New Year's, people are full of high expectations and hope. This is especially true of New England Patriots fans. There are rumors that Darrelle Revis will be cut by Tampa Bay, making him a free agent. There's speculation about freeing up cap space by cutting Danny Amendola and/or Vince Wilfork. Steve Smith is being mentioned in trade rumors. There are a number of wide receivers who will soon be free agents. So many happy possibilities! We can forget about 2013 and move on to next year. Fresh starts! New beginnings! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind...

However, just like the real New Year, people enter with ludicrously high hopes, then are often disappointed by harsh reality. This is also how Patriots fans enter into each and every off-season. They fantasize about Larry Fitzgerald, and having both Aqib Talib and Darrelle Revis on the field at the same time. They imagine trading for Steve Smith and moving up in the draft to select Sammy Watkins. Why not even add Jimmy Graham too?

You would think after years of following the Patriots, fans would learn to limit expectations and try to be as grounded as possible. Instead, with each passing off-season of disappointment their dreams seem to only increase in grandeur and decrease in plausibility.

Darrelle Revis is the latest object of Pats fans' fantasies. When word got out that the Buccaneers were shopping him, Pats fans immediately wanted to trade for him. Now that it seems like Tampa Bay might let him go, and Pats fans immediately want to sign him.

And so do I. He's a great player. If cap space weren't a consideration and the Patriots didn't need help elsewhere, it would be a no-brainer.

It's funny how the people who demanded Aqib Talib be re-signed are the same people now demanding that Revis be acquired.

It's also funny that the most passionate pleas for signing Revis are coming from the same people who were screaming the loudest about the Patriots needs at wide receiver.

I'm sure these sudden, dramatic, and sometimes conflicting shifts in demands are because these people are thinking rationally and not because they're reacting emotionally.

Unlike these people, who seem to know what to do, I don't think I could figure out a 53-man roster, along with all the salary cap numbers, and all the bonuses, and the guaranteed money, and the roster bonuses, and the workout bonuses, and juggle the cap in 2014 while thinking about the cap in 2015, and keep some money for draft day selections I haven't even picked yet. But these people who a few months ago demanded Aqib Talib be re-signed, then demanded a big tall wide receiver, and are now demanding Darrelle Revis, these people seem to know how to juggle all those variables. I'm impressed.

The complexities of an NFL roster are too much for a person like me to figure out. Especially since I only just watch football. The people demanding Revis, I'll just take their word for it. They've got it figured out. After all, they make it seem so simple. And they reach their conclusions so quickly. That's evidence of their clear and concise thought.

End sarcasm.

I'm not arguing against signing Darrelle Revis. He's a great player and he would help this team tremendously. I am arguing against overly simplistic and emotionally based arguments. I'm arguing against Patriots fans who should know better than to hope for a Daniel Snyder style off-season of buying names.

As I'm writing this, there are stories that the Patriots are close to re-signing Aqib Talib. I'm fine with that. I also think the Patriots need to add a #2 cornerback with experience, so when/if the #1 guy (whether it's Talib or someone else) gets hurt, or they face a team with multiple weapons at receiver, the Pats don't get burned.

There's an argument out there that Talib is injury prone, so he shouldn't be re-signed, therefore Revis should be acquired. That's valid. It makes sense. At the same time, such vulnerability suggests another argument: don't put your eggs in one basket. Don't over-invest in one player. When you invest too much in one player or at one position, at the expense of depth and at the expense of strength at other positions, you create an over-reliance on one player, and weaknesses at other positions. And if your one keystone player goes down, then you're weak EVERYWHERE.

The Patriots, when they've depended on one lone cornerback as the key to their defense, have been exposed when that single player gets taken out of the game or doesn't play well.

I'll take Talib plus a solid #2 CB and/or a better pass rush over Darrell Revis. That might not be what the Patriots do, it might not be the right thing to do, but at least my arguments are based on rationality and reason, not just emotion and over-simplification.

When you base too much on emotion, and ignore logic, even when you're right it's by accident.

Happy New Year, Patriots fans. I hope the Pats have a productive off-season and address more than just one of their needs. I also hope fans don't get too pie-in-the-sky hopeful about all the big names out there. Teams win Super Bowls, not names.