STILL WINLESS

So long as the Orioles are in first place, the season hasn't really, fully begun. It's still in that opening phase, in which averages and ERAs range from 0 to the high hundreds. It's not time to panic. It's not time to even worry. It is time to think, though.

And I think Josh Beckett is going to give us a very disappointing year. I know it's just one game, and 3 runs in 5 innings isn't atrocious. But he looked so inconsistent with his pitches. Sometimes the fastball had bite. Sometimes it just floated up there. And when Cleveland stopped swinging early, Beckett started to struggle.

I feel like giving the offense a pass in this one. The Sox tend to struggle against young, unknown, unfamiliar pitchers like Josh Tomlin. And last night's weather in Cleveland was hardly conducive to offense. And free passes are easy to give in April.

But the Red Sox will need to hit in order to win with the likes of Beckett and Lackey on the mound.

And now comes Daisuke, who faces the Indians' Mitch Talbot. I actually think Daiske is going to dazzle in this game.

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BRUINS BLOW 3-0 LEAD

You wonder why I'm so negative about this team. Games like this one stick in my memory more than 3-2 wins over Atlanta. Games like this one not only hurt, they scare me.

The Bruins took a 3-0 lead, taking advantage of a worn out Rangers team. Then McQuaid makes a mistake, and it's 3-1. Then more defensive lapses, and it's 3-2. But the penalty killing unit seems to sap New York's momentum, and the Bruins get back to sensible hockey.

Then comes the 3rd period. The exhausted Rangers summon their final ounces of energy, and pressure the Bruins. As we've seen again and again, the Bruins failed to put away a desperate team.

McQuaid and Kaberle made the two most glaring defensive mistakes. Both of them assumed their teammates would win a battle, and moved to positions to receive a pass. Instead, their teammates lost their battles, and dangerous amounts of space was opened up. McQuaid surrendered the middle of the ice on Vaclav Prospal's first goal. And Kaberle left the crease open, giving Brandon Dubinsky all the time and space he needed to deke out Thomas.

In the defensive zone, you can't assume your teammates are going to win the puck. You have to react and play DEFENSIVELY. Weird concept, eh?

There were also numerous defensive shortcomings by Andrew Ference. I'd rather see Hnidy out there. I'm tired of watching Ference lose battles. Kaberle isn't much of a defensive defenseman either, but at least he can pass and score.

And the game-winning goal came when the Bruins collapsed into the slot. But none of them took a body. They tried fishing for the puck. Which is exactly what the Rangers did to allow Horton's goal in the 1st. In that type of frantic situation, you have to tie up your opponents' stick. The puck will randomly bounce around, but at least if it finds your opponents' stick, they won't be able to do anything with it.

Statistically, the Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. 4th fewest goals allowed. But in tough situations in big games, they make so many inexcusable defensive errors. Claude Julien might have implemented a masterful defensive plan in Boston, but it relies too much on the opponent playing predictable, traditional, station-to-station hockey. In other words, not the brand of hockey you see in the playoffs.

The Bruins finish the season against some non-contending teams. It's a good chance to give Thomas a break, and to play guys like Seguin and Kampfer. B's host the Islanders Wednesday night.

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BRUINS WIN SCRIMMAGE

Atlanta is not a good team. Atlanta played a very flat game. The Bruins played 45 flat minutes, and 15 minutes with energy. That's why they won. And this team continues to frustrate the hell out of me, even when they win.

Michael Ryder scored a goal on a penalty shot, and that's great. He's been playing well lately, and that's great. He has had some good playoff series in the past, and that's great. But he's not consistent. He might go on a tear and score some goals in the first round. Then he'll disappear. He's my least favorite player on the Bruins because even when he scores, he pisses me off. I mean, where was it 2 weeks ago, Ryder?

The last time the Bruins played at their best, and beat a legit team that was also playing at their best, was February 26th in Vancouver. That's too long ago. The Bruins now have 4 games left to build good habits, and get ready for the postseason.

Tonight will be a good test, as they play the Rangers, who only have a 2 point cushion between themselves and 9th place Carolina.

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DON'T WEEP ABOUT THE SWEEP

All the anticipation for Opening Day and then the Rangers outscore the Sox 26-11 in three games. Don't panic yet, though. The Sox can still win those magical 100 games, if that's what you care about. They'd just have to go 100-59 in the remaining 159 games. And that's certainly possible.

Had the Sox done well this weekend, I would have been my wet blanket self, and pleaded for everyone to settle down, as it's only April. Well it is only April, and so therefore I'm not too worried about what we saw in Texas.

Jon Lester is a perennial slow starter. From 2008 to 2010, he went 3-5 in April, with a 4.58 ERA. So we shouldn't worry about his struggles on Friday.

Carl Crawford is going to improve. He broke out a bit on Sunday, after going hitless in the first two games, and being demoted in the lineup.

Clay Buchholz allowed 4 runs off 4 homers. Apart from those occasional mistakes he was spot on. It's not as if he was allowing 4 or 5 hits in an inning, and being ripped apart by the Rangers' batters. He made some big mistakes, but not many, and give Texas some credit for capitalizing.

And there were some positives this weekend. Adrian Gonzalez has settled right in. 5 for 9 over the weekend with a double and 3 RBI. I feel a burst of homeruns coming from him.

And there doesn't seem to be the annual Ortiz slump in April. Two homeruns already. And when he pulled the ball, he hit it hard enough to get it through the shifted infield. That's a very good sign.

Now to the bad news. John Lackey looked awful the second time through the lineup. Everyone's hoping he improves on his 2010 performance, but none of us (my pessimistic self included) considered that he might get worse.

And the bullpen needs to be "sorted out," to put it mildly. I don't put much stock in Papelbon's struggles on Sunday, as it was a non-save situation after he'd been sitting all weekend. I don't think he even warmed up once. The other pieces to the bullpen puzzle will take some time and some headaches to fall in place.

One thing I hope you all learned this weekend is how important pitching is. The starting pitcher is literally the ONLY player who can singlehandedly lose a game for his team. They're also capable of doing the most to help his team win. Lackey lost Saturday's game, pretty much on his own. And on Sunday, Matt Harrison's 7 innings did more to help Texas win than any of their homerun hitters.

So buck up, there are 159 games left. I mean, Baltimore's in first place. It's not yet time to take things so seriously.

Red Sox at Cleveland for three, starting on Tuesday.

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TAKE THE GUN, LEAF THE CANNOLI

The Bruins finally played someone who played with effort and determination. And they lost. And without some soft goaltending by James Reimer, they would have lost badly.

It's the same laundry list of problems for the Bruins. Not managing the puck well. Not being able to breakout of their own zone. Not hustling for loose pucks. And a boring Power Play.

For about 2 seasons now, the B's have tried the same static, motionless Power Play strategy. How come they haven't tried something different? It's so easy for opposing PK groups to sit in a box formation, and play the predictable passing lanes, allowing the Bruins to pass around the box, but not into it. Moving bodies around moves those lanes around, which forces the penalty killers to move. That can lead to 2-on-1s in shooting areas. That leads to quality shots, which lead to goals.

The Bruins continue to drift toward the playoffs. And if they step it up in the postseason, then great. But I'd rather see them build some good habits now, and try to maintain those habits for an extended period.

Bruins host the Thrashers Saturday afternoon.

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2011 RED SOX PREVIEW: HITTING

The Red Sox scored the 2nd most runs in baseball last year. They were 2nd in homeruns, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 1st in OPS. In other words, they were pretty good at the plate. And they should be even better in 2011.

Adding Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were the big stories of the off-season. Not to mention the returns of Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, who only played in 102 and 75 games last year, respectively. These newcomers and returning producers should more than offset the loss of Beltre and Victor Martinez.

The middle of the lineup will be fierce. Gonzalez, liberated from San Diego's pitcher friendly park, should hit over .300, with an OBP close to .400, slug near .600, and approach 40 homers. Youkilis should hit nearly 30 homers, with an OBP well over .400, and slug around .570.

Putting Crawford and Pedroia ahead of them will result in abundant runs. Gonzalez could knock in 120, and Youkilis should easily surpass 100 RBI.

JD Drew's contract is up, so I think he'll actually play more than 140 games and produce. Then there's Ortiz, whose 32 homers and 102 RBIs were impressive in 2010. But he really struggled against lefties. Drew also can't hit southpaws. So against righties, the Sox will have an excellent 5-6 to keep the pressure on. Against lefties, you'll see plenty of innings ended by Drew and Ortiz.

The bottom of the lineup will be solid enough. I like Ellsbury as a 7th or 9th hitter, either keeping the middle of the orders' rallies going, or helping Crawford and Pedroia start a new one. He should hit .300, with a .350 OBP that keeps him from being a good leadoff option. Minimal power, but plenty of speed.

Scutaro had a decent year last season. But we've all sort of forgotten. So did Lowrie. Having both of them as options is a nice luxury. Both play good defense, and neither are easy outs. That's all you really want or need from the 8th spot in your lineup.

Speaking of easy outs, we come to Varitek/Saltalamacchia. They'll ground into so many double plays. That is, if they even make contact with the ball.

Anyway you stack it, this lineup is pretty sick. Mike Cameron can fill in for Drew against lefties. And the speed of Crawford and Ellsbury can help keep the whole batting order from slumping. And even if a tough lefty is on the mound, guys like Youkilis (.404 against LHP last year), can still give them problems.

The Sox scored 818 runs last year, or 5.05 per game. If they stay healthy, they'll score over 900.

You have an amazing offense, and suspect pitching. I'm reminded of the Cleveland Indians from 1995 to 1999. They'll be fun to watch. They'll win 100 regular season games. And they'll lose the World Series to a team with superior pitching. I'm thinking the Phillies. 1946 all over again.

2011 RED SOX PREVIEW: PITCHING

100 wins. All I keep hearing about is 100 wins. It's something the Red Sox haven't done since 1946. But is that really the achievement to long for? The Sox lost the 1946 World Series. And there are some parallels to that 1946 team, which led the Majors in offense, scoring half a run per game more than anyone else, but were 9th of 16 teams in runs allowed. They lost the World Series to St. Louis, the team that allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

Then, as now, pitching wins. And that's where I'll start this preview. Because even though a great offense can win 100 regular season games, it's pitching that wins 11 postseason games.

The Sox rotation looks the same as last year. And it has just as many question marks. We can pretty much bank on Jon Lester to have an ERA below 3.50, and 16 to 20 wins. He's been the rock of the rotation, and one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons.

Then there's Buchholz. Call me negative, but him repeating his 2010 feats is not guaranteed. We've all sort of assumed he will once again register an ERA around 2.50 and win close to 20 games. Maybe he will. Even 17 wins and a 3.00 ERA would be excellent. But he's 26. He has one great season under his belt. He's still a question mark. Even though he's overshadowed by much larger question marks in the rotation.

15-10 record. 3.96 ERA. 23 homeruns. That's what Josh Beckett averages every 162 games in his career. Even I was a little stunned to see that. It's so below average. With the Red Sox, he's been 71-40 with a 4.29 ERA. And since 2008, he's been atrocious. It's gotten to the point that Beckett isn't much of a question mark anymore. He's a bad pitcher until proven otherwise.

Among qualifying pitchers, John Lackey had the 73rd lowest ERA in baseball last year. He did eat innings, but that's pretty much it. You can live with him as a #4 starter, but if Beckett doesn't have a good year, he's your #3. And if Buchholz falters, he's your #2. And that's an alarming thought.

Then there's Daisuke. If any other pitcher won 18 games their sophomore season, then was repeatedly injured, struggled when healthy, and averaged 96 walks per full season, we'd be talking about sending him to Pawtucket. So what makes Daisuke so special? I just don't have a good feeling about Daisuke in 2011. Even when healthy, even when at his best, he doesn't go deep into games. His 18 win season was coupled with 167.2 innings pitched. 90 pitchers managed to surpass that mark in 2010.

Sorry folks, but the rotation is too vulnerable, and too dependent on all the stars aligning. Actually, it's dependant on time travel. If Buchholz is the same as he was in 2010, if Beckett is the same as he was in 2007, if Daisuke is the same as 2008, if Lackey is the same as he was in 2007 and in another city....

But it's 2011.

Thankfully, the bullpen looks quite a bit better than last year. The Sox blew the 4th most saves in baseball last year. And with shaky starting pitching, the bullpen will be worked hard in 2011.

Papelbon is still the closer. And even though he's not as elite as he used to be, he's still good enough. It'd be tough to find an improvement over him, but it won't be hard to find a replacement.

Daniel Bard has impressed as a set-up man, with a 1.11 WHIP in 124 career relief innings. Bard and Papelbon represent a quality 8th and 9th inning tandem. But they can't be overworked. They need help.

Bobby Jenks is a possible option. That's what the Sox did to this bullpen: added options. They signed a number of guys, hoping that one or two would work out as reliable set-up men. In the dice game that is relief pitching, this is a viable strategy to build a quality bullpen.

But Jenks is coming off a bad year. And he's gotten progressively worse since 2007. You never know with relievers, but it's hard to imagine that trend changing.

I'm much more optimistic about Dan Wheeler, who's pitched with success in the AL East. He's 33, but has 530 appearances under his belt. He'll wind up as the secondary set-up guy alongside Bard.

Wakefield will be a mop up man and spot starter. Doubront will be used against lefties.

The rest of the bullpen will be a revolving door of arms. Maybe one will be reliable enough to be a 6th inning man, or the type of guy that's brought in when the Sox are down 2 runs in the 7th.

Overrall, the bullpen isn't great, but it's no longer a liability. The rotation, however, is very suspect. So much needs to happen for it to work. And so much can go wrong for it to fail. I don't see Beckett winning more than 15 games. I don't see Daisuke throwing more than 180 innings. I see Buchholz having a good-not-great year. I don't see Lackey doing much better than he did in 2010.

But the offense should be able to make up for these shortcomings. At least in the regular season.

CHICAG-0

On paper, wins over Montreal, Philadelphia, and Chicago in a 6 day span is pretty impressive. But Montreal were menstruating, the Flyers were flatter than Kiera Knightley, and the Blackhawks were sleepy. I watched the end of the Detroit/Chicago game on Monday, and it was a brutal grinder. So I'm not overly enthused about the Bruins' 3-0 win over the exhausted Hawks.

Then again, it's not as if the B's lost to a tired team. They did what needed to be done. And when Chicago was able to muster the strength to play hard, the Bruins matched their intensity.

Oh yeah, and Tim Thomas is unbelievable. His GAA dropped below 2 thanks to his 9th shutout of the season.

These have been nice wins, but they've hardly been tests. Which is why I'm not letting them influence my feelings about this team in the playoffs. Right now I'm just anxiously awaiting the start of the playoffs on April 13.

Shawn Thornton is a savage. He gets his forehead sliced open by a skate, then on his way to the bench someone from Chicago says the wrong thing (I'm guessing a tampon joke), and he wants to fight the guy.

Thornton received 40 stitches. He also said of the Blackhawks chirping at him: "If I ever find who it was, I'll deal with it my own way." And I believe him.

Bruins next play a team that will probably be very motivated. The Maple Leafs come to town on Thursday, only 5 points out of a playoff spot.

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