College Football Picks: Week 4*

Last week my picks were 2-5. On the season, I've made 20 picks, and have a record of 7-12-1. So things haven't been going very well. Factor in a 10% vigorish that the loser typically pays in a sports bet, and I'm averaging a -31.5% return on investment with these bets. That means for every $100 I theoretically wager, I'd get back $68.50 and lose $31.50. That's not good.

So I would advise that you look at my picks, and do the opposite.

This is a big weekend in college football. There are three huge conference games that could go a long way to determine BCS berths. #14 Arkansas is at #3 Alabama. #7 Oklahoma State is at #8 Texas A&M. #11 Florida State is at #21 Clemson. And here are my picks:

NC State +7.5 @ Cincinnati
I still have faith in the Wolfpack, and think very little of the Bearcats.

Syracuse -2 vs. Toledo
Why not? If Cuse loses, then I'll still be quite happy.

Boston College -9 vs. UMass
I'm tempted to take UMass on this one, but BC has got to be pissed, their defense should stop anything the Minutemen can muster, and Montel Harris might be back.

Florida State +2.5 @ Clemson
One team coming off a big loss, another coming off a big win. I think FSU is slightly underrated at the moment, and the opposite is true of Clemson. I'm sure Jenn Sterger agrees.

Arkansas +12.5 @ Alabama
In my preseason SEC preview, I picked Arkansas to win the West because they'd match up well with Alabama. When you're wrong most of the time, it's best to stick with your first pick. That way, at the most, you can only be wrong once.

Texas A&M -3.5 vs. Oklahoma State
OSU is good, A&M is better, and playing at one of the best home stadiums in the game.

LSU -5.5 @ West Virginia
I have a feeling like LSU might get worn down with their tough schedule. But until it happens, I can't not pick them.

USC +2.5 @ Arizona State
Why not?

Is Fenway Too Friendly?

I heard Maz and Felger discussing how friendly Fenway Park has been despite the Red Sox' struggles in September. For example, how everyone sings and sways to "Sweet Caroline" between the top and bottom of the 8th, even if the bullpen has just blown a lead in a crucial game against a crappy team.

And they're right. Fenway is different. It's different from what it was 10 years ago. It's different from the other venues in town. It's become more family friendly, which is nice. And you can't avoid pinkhats (at least they're nice to look at, especially in short shorts on a humid summer evening). But there have been all sorts of undesirable fans at these games.

At least once a game, I see a group of emo kids wearing Pedroia shirts. Emo Sox fans? Could you imagine seeing an emo Patriots fan at Gillette? How about an emo Bruins fan at the Garden?

The other day, there was a group of yuppies asking me where to get good beers. I pointed out a Blue Moon stand, told them where Sam Adams Octoberfest, Guinness, Smithwicks, and Harpoon were and they almost laughed at me. These beers weren't good enough for them. Or as they phrased it "Where can we find a beer we can actually drink?"

Fenway has become a great place to take a date (or so it seems, I wouldn't know). She can get a Mike's Hard Lemonade, eat a veggie burger or sushi, wear a shirt that says "Meet Me in the Dugout," and she can even wear high heels because they repaved the concourse to flatten out all those 99 year old bumps.

Fenway used to be a place where you wouldn't take prissy girls. You'd only take girls that I consider to be wife material. These are girls who actually like the sport, don't mind sitting in cramped seats, and will have a kielbasa dog, and drink Sam Adams or Molson with you.

The Sox have dramatically improved the experience at Fenway Park. The concourses are larger, there are more areas for fans to congregate and socialize. There are activities for kids. There's tons of concession stands and ATMs so long lines are rare. They've turned the cavernous interior into a nice place to be.

But while this means higher ticket prices, which means higher revenue, which means being able to sign talented players (or JD Drew and John Lackey), it also means that Fenway has become more of a picnic area than a ballpark.

Back in the late 90s and early 2000s, if you went to Fenway, all you could do was sit in your seat, drink, and watch the game. The game was everything. You were miserable if the Sox lost, ecstatic if they won. Now it's sort of like a party with a game of beer pong being played in the background. If something interesting happens, people applaud. But most of the time, they're just hanging out with their friends.

There's been no anger, no rage at Fenway these past two weeks. At Gillette, Patriot fans get mad if the Pats aren't leading by a 14 at halftime. Bruins fans get pissed if the B's fail to score on a Power Play. There's really no atmosphere at Fenway anymore. There's no buzz when the Yankees are in town. There's no tension when the weather gets cold and there's a pennant race. It's just a happy, fun place to be. It's no longer Fenway Park. It's Cheers.

Marlins' New Logo?

This is simply hideous. I liked the old fish on the F. That logo was cool. The Marlins sold lots of hats because people liked their logo and color scheme. Nobody (especially not in southern Florida) likes their team.

College Football Musical Chairs

The musical chairs of college football continue as Pitt and Syracuse will be joining the ACC. The move not only improves the football of the conference, it also dramatically improves the quality of the basketball. Syracuse, Duke, and UNC will all be directly competing against each other. The move also widens the ACC's footprint in the Northeast.

The ACC could stay at 14 teams, or it could easily expand to 16. UConn and Rutgers are very willing to join. Notre Dame has been rumored to be a target, and would obviously bring huge amounts of revenue and exposure to the conference. As a BC fan, I'd love if UConn and Notre Dame were to join Boston College in the ACC.

But Notre Dame's ample revenue streams are precisely why they won't join the ACC. They don't want to split their football money with anyone.

The ACC adding teams makes sense for several reasons. Obviously, adding quality football and basketball programs increases shared revenue for everyone. Also, the SEC is lurking, like a shark in deep waters and the ACC needs to protect itself.

Nobody knows how hungry the SEC will be to add teams. But if they do have an appetite, ACC programs like Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech might be on the menu. The ACC is actively defending itself in case that happens.

The Pac-12 has announced that it won't expand... today at least. They're happy with a 12 team conference and they'll all be making plenty of money.

This means that most of the Big XII is safe... today at least. Texas A&M will shuffle over to the SEC, and will likely do so uncontested now that the Big XII as a conference can still survive with 9 members. They may also add BYU or even West Virginia. The SEC has denied that it has already added Missouri.

The Big East is on life support. This isn't the first time. When BC, Miami, and Virginia Tech left, many thought that the Big East would die. So I don't want to start writing its obituary, but things seem worse this time around.

The Big East will be down to 7 teams with the departure of Pitt and Cuse (and the addition of TCU). If UConn and Rutgers defect to the ACC and West Virginia to the Big XII, the conference will either have to disband, or add low quality teams to survive. There simply aren't that many good non-BCS programs out there to add, though. Boise State, obviously. But who else? Houston? Central Florida?

I think the ACC will become the first 16 team "super-conference." They'll be an experiment for the other conferences to watch. If it works, then the SEC and others will follow.

We might end up with 4 BCS conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-16), each with 16 teams, 4 divisions, and 2 rounds of playoffs. Then maybe the 4 conference champs, plus 2 wild cards could be in a National Championship playoff. That'd be fine with me.

The Yankees Are Doing More for the Sox than the Sox Are

I'm going to make a Curt Schilling type of statement. I don't want the Red Sox to make the playoffs if it's just because of the Yankees winning. If this team backs in and clinches because the Yankees beat the Rays, I'm not going to be celebrating.

It's hard to attack Papelbon. This was only his 2nd blown save of the season. It's awful timing as the rest of the team is struggling. But the guy is 30 for 32 in save opportunities.

We can attack Bard. This was his 4th loss of September. He's become a liability.

It's also easy to attack the starting pitching. We're all criticizing the Sox for an apparent lack of effort. The pitching, though, has been horrendous. You can't expect to win when your starters go 2.2 innings. When you need 10+ runs to feel comfortable, there's a pitching problem.

Beckett can perhaps right the ship tonight. He faces 4-4 Tommy Hunter.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

College Football Summary: Week 3

This was one of the most surprising weekends of college football. Preseason preconceptions have now become misconceptions. And Oklahoma has finally won a big road game. And right now, it seems like OU and LSU are on a collision course. Here are the headlines from Week 3...

MISSISSIPPI STATE ISN'T AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT THEY WERE
The Bulldogs are decent, but they won't fare well against the powerhouses in the SEC West. They won't move the ball against those top level defenses. It's kind of a shame that they're in such a stacked division. They're already 0-2 in the SEC and finishing 4-4 would be a relative success for this program.

LSU IS AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT THEY WERE

Their defense is sick. I know it's still September, but a matchup between LSU's defense and OU's offense would be great to see. LSU has already beaten Oregon, they just won an SEC West road game. They still have trips to Morgantown and Tuscaloosa. If they go through their schedule with 1 or even 2 losses, it's tough to deny them a national title bid.

BOISE STATE IS BETTER THAN TOLEDO
Boise State runs up the score against bad teams and they wind up as #4 in the country. Big fucking deal. I'm not impressed.

OKLAHOMA DESERVES TO BE #1
It's tough to argue against LSU being #1, but Oklahoma beat a very good Florida State team on the road. Had LSU's win over Oregon been in Eugene, things might be different.

THE BIG TEN ISN'T AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT THEY WERE
Michigan State lost to Notre Dame, Ohio State lost to Miami. Iowa already lost to Iowa State. Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, and Illinois are the only undefeated teams left. Nebraska should roll over this overrated league.

MAYBE THE ACC IS BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT

Clemson beat Auburn. Miami beat Ohio State. Granted, Florida State lost to Oklahoma and Maryland lost to West Virginia, but those two teams are likely to win their conferences. I'm not saying the ACC is on par with the SEC or the Big XII, but they might be as good as the Big Ten.

WE NEED A PLAYOFF SYSTEM... BADLY
Imagine a simple, top 8 playoff system. These would be the matchups.

#1 Oklahoma vs. #8 Texas A&M
#2 LSU vs. #7 Oklahoma State
#3 Alabama vs. #6 Wisconsin
#4 Boise State vs. #5 Stanford

Tell me you wouldn't be glued to the TV.

Yankees Fans Suck

Mariano Rivera surpassed Trevor Hoffman on the all-time saves list yesterday afternoon. And there were 10,000 empty seats.

I know it was a makeup game, I know it was a Monday afternoon, I know there's no way to tell when Rivera would get that save opportunity. But 8 million people live in New York. And that's just within the city limits. 18 million people live in the area. 50,000 of them couldn't take the day off from work/school and watch a legend make history?

Yankee Stadium doesn't sell out all the time, even though the Yanks are in 1st. It's pathetic. No other word for it. Yankee fans will gloat and brag as if they had something to do with their team's success (even back in the 1920s), yet when one of their most important players makes history, he did so in a stadium that was 1/5 empty.

Splitting a Doubleheader With Baltimore Has Become Good News

This is the state of things. A split doubleheader with the O's is the best news Sox fans have been able to enjoy in weeks. It also seems like the Sox offense needs to score 18 runs in order for this team to win. The pitching has become that bad.

John Lackey is the worst regular starting pitcher in baseball. His ERA is up to 6.49. He's actually saved his worst performances for the end of the season. His July was mediocre, his August was bad, his September has been godawful.

The 18 run onslaught was nice, but does this offense simply annihilate bad pitching, then struggle against the good? Do they "run up the score" when Brian Matusz is on the mound, then can't get more than 4 or 5 runs against decent pitchers like Guthrie?

Perhaps the Game 1 loss yesterday was a wake-up call, and the team answered in Game 2. However, I think that the Sox simply pounded an atrocious pitcher. I'll definitely take the win, though.

Erik Bedard faces Rick VandenHurk (he's Dutch) tonight. VandenHurk has only made one start this year and he didn't get out of the 3rd, so the Sox should put up some runs.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo